Mexico sees 'normalcy'; others wary

MEXICO CITY - Mexico announced a return to "normalcy" yesterday, preparing to reopen businesses and schools even as the swine flu virus has sickened more than 1,400 people in 20 countries.

World health officials said that the global illness was still in its early stages and that a pandemic could be declared in the days to come. But Mexico's president said the flu was waning at its epicenter, justifying tomorrow's end to a five-day nationwide shutdown he credits for reducing the spread of the new virus.

Already, streets in the capital seemed more lively, with fewer people wearing face masks and with more vehicles out. Some cafes reopened ahead of time. President Felipe Calderon said that universities and high schools would reopen Thursday, and younger schoolchildren should report back to school Monday.

"The school schedule will resume with the guarantee that our educational institutions are in adequate hygienic condition," promised Calderon, who called on parents to join educators in a "collective" cleansing and inspection of schools nationwide.

"This is about going back to normalcy but with everyone taking better care," Calderon said.

Experts inside Mexico's swine flu crisis center warned that the virus remained active throughout Mexico and could bounce back once millions return to work and school.

It also may get worse north of the border.

"The bottom line is that there hasn't been time for the severe illnesses to perhaps show up in the U.S. yet," Marc-Alain Widdowson, a medical epidemiologist from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told the Associated Press.

Others in the United States also urged caution, even as a New York City school reopened yesterday after a spring-break trip to Mexico led to 73 confirmed cases so far, and many others suspected.

"We are by no means out of the woods," said Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC.

Mexican Health Secretary Jose Cordova insisted that swine flu infections were trending downward after 27 deaths, including a toddler from Mexico who died in Texas.

But other experts said the known cases in Mexico were almost certainly only a fraction of what is out there, meaning more illnesses could surface once crowds gather again.

"It's clear that it's just about everywhere in Mexico," Widdowson said. "I think now there is considerable person-to-person transmission."

And now that the virus is taking off in the United States, chances of severe cases could rise, too.

As of yesterday, U.S. cases had grown to at least 380 in 36 states. Globally, the virus has reached more than 1,447 people in 20 countries.

The World Health Organization was studying whether to raise the pandemic alert to 6, its highest level, which would mean a global outbreak had begun. WHO uses the term pandemic to refer to geographic spread, not severity. Pandemics aren't necessarily deadly. The last two pandemics - in 1957 and 1968 - were relatively mild.

The Southern Hemisphere is particularly at risk. While New Zealand is the only country south of the equator with confirmed cases, winter is only weeks away there. Experts worry that winter flus could combine with swine flu, creating a strain that is more contagious or dangerous.