Surge in registration for Latino voters in Pa., N.J.

In an effort to rally Hispanic voters locally, Democracia USA, a national civic-engagement group, has registered nearly 9,800 new Latino voters in Pennsylvania, and nearly 3,700 in New Jersey, since January.

Of the new Pennsylvania voters, nearly two-thirds live in Berks and Lehigh Counties and one-fifth live in Philadelphia, Democracia president Jorge Mursuli said at a news conference yesterday at the National Constitution Center.

Of the New Jersey voters, more than 90 percent live in Camden County. In both states, slightly more than half of the new voters are women.

According to Democracia, which has headquarters in Miami and local chapters in Philadelphia, Reading and Pennsauken, there are 294,000 registered Hispanic voters in Pennsylvania as of May 1; in 2000, there were 99,000.

"Hispanics currently represent approximately 4 percent of the overall Pennsylvania electorate. Going back eight years, two presidential cycles, they were just 1 percent," said Fernand Amandi, whose firm, Bendixen & Associates, does public opinion research for Democracia.

If primary-election turnout patterns persist, he said, the Hispanic percentage of the electorate in Pennsylvania could reach 5 percent.

"In a close, contested race, I don't have to tell you the ramifications of what 5 percent of the vote could do to swing the state one way or the other," said Amandi. He added that the growth in the Hispanic electorate would also affect local races, now and for a long time because the new Hispanic voters are generally young, with most in the 18- to 29-year-old category.

"This group is going to play a tremendous role," he said, "not just in the presidential election but for years to come."

Post-primary analyses showed that 65 percent of Latinos who voted in the Democratic primaries favored Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Now that their preferred Democrat is out of the running, which way will her crucial segment of their swing vote swing?

"The important thing to remember is that in general Latinos don't have the historic connection to the civil-rights movement or to any party. Some do. But because of demographics through the last 30 years, there is a grand percentage who have no relationship to that tradition," said Mursuli.

"What they care about is the American dream. That means education for their kids. It means the economy. It means health care.

"The question is: Which party is going to invest in them? It isn't necessarily about money. It's about building relationships."

That is why, he said, President Bush did so well with Hispanics in 2000 and 2004 behind the slogan "Nos conocemos" - we know each other.

"He was from Texas. He spoke a little bit of Spanish," said Mursuli. That's why the Latino electorate trended his way.

"What does [Barack] Obama have to do? Obama has made a deliberate choice up to now not to do 'identity politics.' Fine. He now has to build a relationship. . . . I don't think within the Hispanic community there exists any more or less racism than anywhere else. I believe that's a misnomer around this issue about whether Hispanics will vote for him. The real issue is, they don't know who he is.

"Now he's having to make different choices, I think. He's got to go out there and meet people. Talk to folks about things that they care about. It doesn't really have to be issues-focused. Just meet them. People need to trust the fact that he is going to care what happens to them."

How might John McCain woo Latinos?

"This is a man who comes from a state and a particular city, by the way, that is particularly anti-immigrant. And in spite of that, he has done a yeoman's job of leading the immigration-reform movement. That is not a small thing. So I give him major kudos," said Mursuli.

Yet he has retreated from that position under criticism from the right-wing of his party, Mursuli said.

"So the question remains: Is McCain going to go for the middle, or is he going to focus on keeping his right base? If he focuses on his right wing," predicted Mursuli, "he's not going to bring Hispanics along."