Ex-rebels way ahead in Nepal vote

NEW DELHI - Defying nearly everyone's expectations but their own, Nepal's former Maoist rebels took a commanding lead yesterday in partial results from last week's election, a showing that could have profound effects on the Himalayan nation.

With the votes tabulated in more than two-thirds of the 240 seats contested by direct election for an assembly charged with writing a constitution, the Maoists have won 105 and are ahead in seven districts, Nepal's Election Commission reported. The tally dwarfs that of the two other major parties, the Nepali Congress, with 30 seats, and a communist grouping known as the UML, with 24.

The results have confounded analysts, most of whom predicted before Thursday's vote that the Maoists would come in third. But without any proper polling data available, those forecasts were little more than guesses about the outcome of Nepal's first election in nine years.

Many observers think the Maoists, who laid down their arms in November 2006 after a decade of guerrilla war, will find it hard to land a majority in the new 601-member constituent assembly. Under the complex rules governing the body, 335 seats will be allocated proportionally to the parties based on the results of a separate ballot cast Thursday. The remaining seats will be appointed.

It could be several days before the full makeup of the assembly becomes clear.

Throughout the campaign, confident assertions by the Maoists' leader, who goes by the nom de guerre Prachanda, that his party would sweep the election were dismissed by commentators as mere bravado. But as results trickled in, including Prachanda's own win in a Maoist stronghold near Kathmandu, supporters thronged the streets and declared victory.

While election observers called the vote generally free and fair, outbreaks of violence and reports of intimidation by Maoists marred the election campaign. Some voters may also have feared that the Maoists would take up arms again and wreak havoc if they were denied victory.

But pundits may have underestimated the thirst for change among a populace unhappy with how the other parties performed in office.

Both the Nepali Congress and the UML have been accused of corruption and ineptitude. Their leaders also were tainted for having worked with Nepal's King Gyanendra, whose 15-month absolute rule provoked a popular revolt two years ago that may culminate in the monarchy's being written out of existence in the new constitution.

"People were simply fed up with these parties," said C.K. Lal, a Nepali Times columnist. "They lost touch on the ground. The Maoists promised a new kind of politics."

The Maoists favor establishing a presidential system in Nepal, with Prachanda as president. The party has also moderated its hard-line communist rhetoric. It no longer supports nationalization of Nepal's industries and accepts the idea of foreign investment.

The insurgency, in which more than 13,000 people died, still gives some Nepalis pause over the idea of the Maoists in government. The United States lists the Maoists as a terrorist group; during its 10-year "people's war," the group was internationally condemned for its campaign of killings, torture and kidnappings.

Prachanda, whose real name is Pushpa Kamal Dahal, was reported to have met recently with former President Jimmy Carter, who monitored the elections, to request his help in having the terrorist designation removed from his organization.