Chaotic GOP race heads to Florida

COLUMBIA, S.C. - Riding the momentum from his weekend victory in South Carolina, John McCain turned his attention yesterday to Florida and the high-stakes primary there that will test whether the Arizona senator can consolidate support among Republican voters and take control of the GOP nomination battle.

The Jan. 29 contest in Florida will be the first Republican primary closed to independent voters, who have boosted McCain to victory in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

A Florida victory, strategists agreed, would stamp McCain as the front-runner in what has been a muddied Republican race and give him a clear advantage heading toward Super Tuesday Feb. 5.

Florida has played a pivotal role in the past two general elections and now is poised to help determine whom the Republicans will send into the main event in November.

The primary looms as a potential showdown in the GOP nomination battle not only because of its size and importance but because it will be the first place this year where all the leading Republican candidates are competing.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who won Nevada's caucuses and the Michigan primary, says he sees the state as a potential breakthrough for his once-battered candidacy and is pouring more of his personal fortune into the state in an effort to deny McCain a victory.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, after a loss to McCain in South Carolina, looks to Florida as perhaps a last opportunity to show that his Iowa caucus victory at the start of the nominating season was not a fluke. A second consecutive Southern loss would be especially costly for the underfunded Huckabee.

But what makes Florida most different from the contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina is the presence of New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani as a full-fledged participant.

Giuliani, the onetime national front-runner, has finished far back in the Republican pack this year, behind Rep. Ron Paul of Texas in Iowa, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina.

But Giuliani has been parked in Florida for weeks and has made the state's primary the critical test for his candidacy.

Whether former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee will compete remained a question after his third-place finish in South Carolina, the state he was hoping would give him his first breakthrough.

There was speculation that Thompson would quit the race if he did not do well in South Carolina, but aides said yesterday no decision had been made.

Florida offers a large and complex battleground for the Republican candidates. A full complement of television ads would cost at least $3 million between now and the primary, perhaps more, according to strategists in the state. No candidate, not even the wealthy Romney, will be able to spend so freely.

Romney has ordered about $1 million in TV commercials, and an adviser said more might be bought depending on the state of the race.

McCain's campaign has promised to counter with a seven-figure buy of its own.

The Giuliani campaign says it expects to be competitive with McCain on television but not with Romney.

Huckabee's hand-to-mouth campaign will struggle to stay abreast of the others.

Geographically, Florida is a series of mini-nations. Giuliani hopes to capitalize on retirees from the Northeast who now live in South Florida.

Huckabee will look to the Panhandle and its southern complexion for votes of religious and social conservatives, but McCain sees significant potential support there as well because of the concentration of military veterans.

The main battleground is likely to be the corridor between Tampa-St. Petersburg and Orlando, which all candidates will be plying over the next nine days.

Florida will award 57 delegates on a winner-take-all basis next week, the most of any state to date. The Republican National Committee penalized the state because officials moved up the date of the primary, cutting its delegate slate in half. But by the time of the national convention this summer, it is possible that all 114 delegates will be awarded to the winner.

Recent polls have shown McCain with a slender lead over Giuliani, followed closely by Romney and Huckabee. But the campaigns say they expect to reassess the state over the next few days as the effects of South Carolina and, to a lesser extent, Nevada are felt in the Sunshine State.

McCain has yet to clearly win the Republican vote in any contest this year. In South Carolina, he and Huckabee divided the GOP vote evenly. McCain's margin came from independents who represented one-fifth of the vote.

A similar pattern occurred in New Hampshire, where McCain and Huckabee split Republicans evenly, and McCain won by a big margin among independents. In Michigan, Romney decisively won Republicans on his way to victory there.

"We've proven that we can win among Republicans and appeal to conservatives," Romney spokesman Kevin Madden said. "Given that it is a closed primary, John McCain is not going to be able to find refuge in independent voters as he did in New Hampshire and South Carolina."

McCain strategist Steve Schmidt said: "We certainly did a lot better than Gov. Romney did among Republicans in the first contest in the South. We feel good about how Sen. McCain is performing across all bands of the Republican Party."

Mike DuHaime, Giuliani's campaign manager, said he expects the race to remain wide open through Feb. 5, when 21 states hold Republican contests.