Was Kenya's apparent success an illusion?

NAIROBI, Kenya - With a thriving economy and two free, fair elections under its belt, Kenya was supposed to be a model for Africa.

But much of its progress appears to have unraveled in two weeks of postelection violence in which 500 people have been killed and 250,000 driven from their homes. An economy that grew 6 percent last year has screeched to a halt, tribal clashes are threatening to boil over, and Kenya's reputation as a democratic stalwart is in tatters.

Now Kenyans and international observers wonder whether the nation's promise was merely an illusion. Many express concerns about the long-term effects, not only for Kenya, but for all of East Africa.

In a sign of Kenya's importance to the continent, prominent African figures, including Archbishop Desmond Tutu and former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, are trying to resolve the crisis.

"Peace in Kenya is a must for peace in all of Africa," said former Mozambique President Joaquim Chissano.

Chaos began after last month's presidential election, which international observers say was plagued with suspected fraud by President Mwai Kibaki and his challenger, Raila Odinga. Each man claims to have won the vote.

After efforts to end the crisis by forming a coalition government failed, Odinga on Friday called for three days of nationwide protests in Nairobi and 27 other cities, beginning Wednesday.

Yesterday the American government took its toughest position yet on the crisis, calling on Kenya's president and opposition leaders to meet immediately and saying that the election was so flawed, it was impossible to know who really won, the New York Times reported. "The United States cannot conduct business as usual in Kenya," said the statement, written by Jendayi E. Frazer, assistant secretary of state for African affairs. Frazer spent much of the last week in Kenya trying to mediate.

The stakes extend far beyond Kenya's borders.

Nairobi's role as a hub for the United Nations, dozens of humanitarian groups, and international journalists has long given Kenya an elevated status in the region.

In recent years, the country has emerged as one of Africa's leaders, playing a prominent role in resolving conflicts in Sudan and Somalia.

Kenyans raised the bar for democracy in Africa in 2002 and 2005, when citizens voted against the sitting government without violence or repercussions. They defied the wishes of former President Daniel arap Moi, who ruled Kenya for 24 years, by rejecting his hand-picked successor, scoring a rare victory for Africans in the fight against the continent's powerful Big Men.

The country's ports also serve as conduits for commerce and aid across East Africa. World Food Program shipments destined for neighboring Somalia start in Mombasa. Kenya's beaches and wildlife parks draw about half a million tourists a year, mostly from the United Kingdom and the United States.

Nearly all of Kenya's neighbors rely on its ports, highways and logistics networks for deliveries of goods and access to international markets. Last week, the turmoil in Kenya temporarily drove up gasoline prices in Uganda by 200 percent because oil trucks could not complete their usual trek from the Kenyan coast.

The United States has come to view Kenya as a key partner in its antiterrorism programs in the Horn of Africa. The country receives about $1 billion a year in U.S. aid.

But some experts say that Kenya's political and economic successes are relatively recent and that Western nations might have put too much faith in the country's progress.

During most of their country's post-independence history, Kenyans have lived under authoritarian rule, including Moi's iron-fisted reign. Democratic reforms only began with the 2002 election of Kibaki, who moved quickly to improve human rights, bolster the economy, and relax restrictions on the media.

But his record on fighting corruption, creating jobs and alleviating poverty was less successful, and these issues remain at the root of the recent unrest, experts said.

"Underlying the violence are inequality, corruption, discrimination, and the exclusion of certain communities," said Dan Juma, acting deputy director of the Kenyan Human Rights Commission, a private advocacy group. "These things have been boiling up for some time. The election was just the trigger."

Nor is ethnic-based violence new to Kenya. Similar tribal clashes occurred during elections in 1992 and 1997, when several thousand Kenyans were killed.

Although Kibaki and Odinga have accused one another of orchestrating "genocide," analysts say competition for land and resources is driving the violence. Tribes in Kenya's lush Rift Valley, where many of the bloodiest attacks took place after last month's vote, have been feuding for decades over land.

The unrest has cost Kenya's economy about $1 billion in lost productivity, the government estimated. The country's famed white-sand beaches are largely deserted as tourism has vanished.

Far worse, activists say, has been the cost to Kenya's democracy. In the aftermath of the violence, the government has banned live broadcasts and imposed new restrictions on the media.

Juma, the human-rights director, said public outrage and passions were higher now than in the past because Kenyans had tasted democracy and were loath to return to the old days.

"Kenyans aspire for greater democracy and freedom," he said. "People are not willing to roll back."