Pakistan curbing al-Qaeda hunt

WASHINGTON - Political turmoil and brazen attacks by Taliban fighters are forcing Pakistan's president to scale back his government's pursuit of al-Qaeda, U.S. intelligence officials say.

The development threatens a pillar of U.S. counterterrorism strategy, which has depended on Pakistan to play a lead role in keeping al-Qaeda under pressure to reduce its ability to coordinate future strikes.

President Pervez Musharraf, facing a potentially fateful election on Oct. 6 and confronting calls to yield power after years of autocratic rule, appears too vulnerable to continue pursuing counterterrorism operations for the United States, the intelligence officials said.

At the same time, the Pakistani military has suffered embarrassing setbacks at the hands of militants in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaeda figures are believed to be hiding.

As a result, U.S. intelligence officials said, the conditions that have allowed al-Qaeda to regain strength are likely to persist, enabling it to continue training foreign fighters and plot new attacks. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity.

"We are worried," said a senior U.S. counterterrorism official who monitors Pakistan's pursuit of al-Qaeda in the rugged frontier region.

If Musharraf is removed from office or agrees to a power-sharing arrangement with political foes, there are also concerns that the "change in government could well mean a diminution of cooperation on counterterrorism," the official added.

A senior U.S. intelligence official said Pakistani retrenchment appeared to have begun.

"We're already beginning to see some signs of that," the official said, citing a series of reversals by the Pakistan military in recent weeks.

"In the next few days we're probably going to see a withdrawal of forces that the Pakistanis put there," the intelligence official said, adding the move could solidify a "safe haven, where the leadership is secure, operational planners can do their business, and foreigners can come in and be trained and redeploy to the West."

Over the years, Musharraf's commitment to rooting out al-Qaeda and Taliban elements has sometimes been questioned. Last fall, the president struck a peace agreement with tribal leaders in North and South Waziristan, scaling back military operations in return for a pledge that the tribes would rein in foreign fighters.

Instead, American intelligence officials said, the deal took pressure off al-Qaeda at a critical time, enabling it to regroup and reestablish ties with affiliates in other parts of the world.

In recent months, Musharraf has sent troops to the tribal areas, particularly after a series of suicide bombings by militants who vowed revenge after a July showdown in Islamabad, the capital city of Pakistan, in which government forces stormed a radical mosque.

Musharraf's popular support has eroded rapidly, starting with a failed attempt to oust the nation's chief justice.

The Pakistani leader, who seized power in a coup in 1999, hopes to secure another presidential term Oct. 6 in a vote by national and provincial lawmakers. He faces legal challenges to his candidacy and some opposition parties plan to boycott the vote. In response to calls that he give up his post as military chief, Musharraf said he would do so after being reelected, a pledge questioned by opponents.

The developments have triggered new concern in the intelligence community that a six-year effort by the United States and Pakistan to root out al-Qaeda, which until this point has had limited success, could further falter. The intelligence official described it as a "cauldron of events" that has become a significant complication in efforts to reign in terrorism.

The unfolding situation has put the United States in the position of pressing for democratic reforms in a nation where doing so is likely to undermine efforts to apprehend bin Laden and shut down terrorist camps linked to plots against Western targets.

At a time when polls in Pakistan suggest that bin Laden is more popular than many of the Muslim nation's politicians, analysts say it is extremely difficult for the beleaguered Musharraf to remain aligned with the United States.

"From a domestic politics perspective, sustained Pakistani action against al-Qaeda in [the tribal areas] would be suicidal," said Seth Jones, an expert on terrorism and Pakistan at the Rand Corp. think tank. "It would only increase hatred against his regime at the precise moment when he is politically weakest."

The political turmoil could cost the United States cooperation from a key ally in the Islamic world, one that has nuclear weapons.

Musharraf has been praised repeatedly by President Bush, and Pakistan has received more than $5.6 billion in aid over the last six years, most of it meant to reimburse the country for counterterrorism efforts.