Pa. could be electoral keystone

By Chris Borick

The unthinkable may happen. Despite the best efforts of our leaders in Harrisburg, many Pennsylvanians appear likely to cast meaningful votes in a presidential primary for the first time in a generation.

While many of the state's voters won't get to join in this rare occurrence, the commonwealth's Democrats are poised to play a significant role in determining their party's presidential nominee. On April 22, the most competitive presidential primary in decades will come to the Keystone State. The arrival of a real election in Pennsylvania should be welcome news for the voters here, but it may be even more welcome news for the campaign of Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The primaries since Super Tuesday have shown that Barack Obama has assumed the momentum in the Democratic race, and the former first lady finds her campaign struggling for survival. Although Clinton is by no means a beaten candidate, her campaign is clearly fighting to stem the tide of a surging challenger. Ten straight losses in primaries and caucuses, a widening fund-raising gap, and sagging national polls have left the once-inevitable nominee in an increasingly vulnerable position. Clinton will have opportunities to reenergize her campaign during the next month with key primaries in Texas and Ohio on the horizon, but it is in Pennsylvania where she seems poised to make a stand and preserve her presidential aspirations.

An examination of exit polls from the early primaries suggests that the Keystone State lines up well for Sen. Clinton. Throughout the primary season Clinton has held advantages over Obama among voters who are white, older, and registered Democrat rather than independent. The commonwealth's Democrats are older than in many of the states where Obama has had success, and while there is a sizable African American presence within the state Democratic Party, white voters make up a solid majority of the party faithful in Pennsylvania. Perhaps most important, the closed primary system employed here will block independents who have strongly favored the Illinois senator from voting in our primary. The absence of same-day registration in the commonwealth will also block individuals suddenly swept up in Obamamania from entering voting booths on election day.

The endorsement and support of Gov. Rendell also bodes well for the Clinton campaign. It's true that prominent endorsements are no guarantee for primary victories; rank-and-file Democrats may not give much weight to the governor's backing of Sen. Clinton. However, Rendell's contributions go well beyond his ability to persuade voters. The governor can provide structure and resources to Clinton's campaign at a time when it needs them most.

Neither Obama nor Clinton has invested much time or money in putting together operations in the commonwealth because it was seen as irrelevant in the primary process. Now, with Pennsylvania becoming a crucial stop on the road to the Democratic nomination, Rendell's support seems much more significant than the standard political posturing that many assumed it to be.

The six weeks between the primary in Mississippi on March 11 and Pennsylvania's primary in April is custom-made to slow down the Obama train. Just as a basketball coach calls a time-out to disrupt the opponent on a scoring run, the six-week recess in primaries will give Clinton time to regroup and reorganize her campaign. Six weeks is an eternity in politics, and the Clinton team will need the time both to restock its campaign coffers and to establish a game plan for the final months of the race. During the primary hiatus, Obama may struggle to keep his momentum rolling along.

Finally, the 2008 campaign has reminded everyone that primaries are about delegates. Pennsylvania is by far the largest prize after March 5, and its delegates will be important in both real and symbolic ways. From an actual delegate count, the candidates can use every vote they get. The race is that close. But it is increasingly clear that neither Obama nor Clinton will have won enough delegates from the primaries and caucuses to claim victory in Denver.

Unless either Clinton or Obama drops out of the race, it will come down to the party's superdelegates to make the ultimate decision on the nominee. While these party insiders are free to cast their support to whomever they please, there will be enormous pressure mounting over the summer for the party leaders to ratify the choice of their electorate. With Obama opening up a lead in delegates allotted through voting, Clinton will need to make a significant run in the coming primaries to be able to stay close to her Democratic counterpart in this symbolically meaningful count. Given the advantages she should have in the commonwealth, Pennsylvania may just be her last best chance to make headway in this category of delegates.