Pa.'s economic recovery is strong
Four indices prove it: The jobless rate. Jobs available. Business growth. State surplus.
Recent media reports have implied that Pennsylvania's economic recovery is not as strong as I've been suggesting. Yet the U.S. Department of Labor has reported that the March unemployment rate in our state reached a 30-year low at 3.8 percent (compared with the national rate of 4.4 percent).
Some reports have suggested that this low unemployment rate is not a sign of a vigorous economy but a sign of a decline in the overall size of the workforce.
Granted, all unemployment statistics are skewed because they will show the numbers of people dropping out of the workforce through retirement or ending their search for jobs. That is true in every state of the Union.
To determine whether an economy is strong, however, there are really four indices of overall economic strength:
The unemployment rate: Only the most cynical of analysts could say that a 30-year low in that rate was anything other than good news.
The number of jobs available in a given state: In that category, Pennsylvania is truly off the charts. For nine of the last 10 months, we have broken our record for the all-time-high number of jobs in the state, according to Department of Labor statistics. Some complain that Pennsylvania's overall job increase - 168,000-plus jobs in the last four years - is sluggish relative to the national rate. But when you compare us with other industrial states, we lead the pack in terms of job growth. Again, only the most hard-boiled cynic can construe a record-breaking number of jobs as anything other than great economic news.
The rate of expansion in existing business and the attraction of new business: According to a 2006 study released by IBM Global Consulting, "Pennsylvania jumped into first place as the top destination state in terms of investment projects in 2005. In 2004, it did not make the list. For manufacturing projects, it moved from third to first place."
The best indicator of all is in the revenue surpluses provided by an expanding tax base: In fiscal 2006, which ended last June 30, the growth of the Pennsylvania economy produced a surplus of nearly $1 billion. And this year, the current projections are that we will build on that growth and produce an additional $500 million surplus as well.
Given the results of these four indices, only Scrooge himself would determine that the Pennsylvania economy is anything but robust.
That does not mean we are complacent and won't respond to dips if they occur. The state's $2.8 billion economic-stimulus program enacted in 2004 clearly was a factor in producing the results in the IBM survey, and we have almost 40 percent of the funds in that program left to invest. We are also continuing to find ways of generating new economic growth with new initiatives, such as the Jonas Salk Fund and the Energy Independence Program.
So cheer up, folks: There actually is good news to report!