Poll shows Christie has sturdy lead

Voters seem to have more than a fleeting crush on Republican gubernatorial nominee Christopher J. Christie, according to a poll released yesterday.

Christie has maintained his lead over Democratic Gov. Corzine since the beginning of the year, said Patrick Murray, Monmouth University polling director.

"The lead has been consistent, which we've never seen for a Republican," he said. "This is a little different than when we see Republicans surge in late summer."

Among 484 likely voters surveyed between last Wednesday and Sunday by the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll, 50 percent said they favored Christie, compared with 36 percent who preferred Corzine. Independent candidate Chris Daggett took 4 percent. The margin of error in the sample was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Among a pool of 723 registered voters, the gap was smaller, with Christie taking 43 percent and Corzine taking 39 percent. That sample had a margin or error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

It is unknown how many voters are likely to vote in the Nov. 3 general election because the candidates have yet to launch full-out campaigns, which will occur in the fall.

Murray said Christie shouldn't start blowing up victory-party balloons yet. His negative ratings are growing. Since July 2008, Christie's unfavorable rating has risen from 9 percent to 30 percent, Murray said.

His unfavorable rating "just keeps tick, tick, ticking up, slowly but surely, which is exactly what the Corzine campaign's strategy has been," he said. "That should cause Christie some worry."

Murray said one striking element of the poll is that voters are most interested in property-tax reform and, for the moment, believe Christie is better able to tackle the problem.

Corzine, a self-made millionaire and former Goldman Sachs chief executive officer, has a fortune to spend on television advertising. Since the primary, he has run ads attacking Christie on ethics to lower his favorability rating with voters.

While he was New Jersey U.S. attorney, Christie awarded seven contracts to private lawyers - including his old boss, former Attorney General John Ashcroft - to monitor the rehabilitation of companies accused of criminal wrongdoing. Corzine has zeroed in on those contracts to tarnish Christie's reputation as a watchdog who secured guilty pleas or convictions from 135 dirty politicians.

In the last week, however, Corzine began running a positive television ad that featured an endorsement from President Obama, who is popular among New Jersey voters. Murray said that could help Corzine with his base voters, who have not yet seemed enthusiastic about reelecting the governor.

A day after the July 23 arrests of 44 people, including three New Jersey mayors and two assemblymen, on corruption charges, Christie launched ads that touted his background as U.S. attorney.

Since June, he has been helped by ads from the Republican Governors Association that have attacked Corzine on the state's budget and economy.

Corzine, in turn, has been aided by the Democratic Governors Association, which sponsored ads opposing Christie.

The governors' groups are known as 527 organizations, named for the section of the tax code that regulates them. They may raise and spend unlimited amounts of money in support of candidates or causes, but they are barred from coordinating with candidates' campaigns.

In New Jersey, which has strict contribution limits, such groups can be used as depositories for big donors to spread their influence.

According to midyear reports filed with the IRS, funds received by the Republican Governors Association included $40,000 from the National Rifle Association. Contributions to the Democratic Governors Association included $200,000 from the National Education Association.