What Corzine reversals mean

In nine painful days, Gov. Corzine pushed forward and pulled back a plan to eliminate the state income-tax deduction for property taxes.

Soon after Corzine announced the proposal March 10, almost every Statehouse Republican charged that the governor was attacking the middle class. The Republican State Committee released a Web ad saying Corzine's budget essentially told the middle class to "Drop Dead."

But along with them, two powerful Democrats - Senate Budget Committee chairwoman Barbara Buono and Senate Democratic leader Stephen Sweeney - publicly signaled they weren't supporting it either.

"I've been listening to New Jerseyans and think we need to preserve this deduction to continue our fight to ease the burden of property taxes," Corzine said in a March 19 statement explaining why he pulled his plan off the table.

This was not the first time Corzine has had to walk away from an initiative.

He has backed down on using toll roads to finance billions in bonds; using all of a one-cent hike in the sales tax to balance his first budget; instituting an independent, elected state comptroller; and shuttering state departments and parks.

Some analysts said Corzine's recent reversal was a sign of his maturity and an ability to listen to people and find common ground. Others, however, said his lack of political experience has hobbled him in the messy world of Trenton politics, where powerful Statehouse figures are just as intent as he is on having their way.

"There is a fair and honest point where public policy and politics have to meet," said Democratic consultant Pat Politano, who has worked with on races around New Jersey, "and that is difficult for somebody who's not been in [politics] for a long time."

Montclair State University political scientist Brigid Harrison said the administration has trouble "packaging" its ideas.

"It is something that this administration on a good day doesn't do well and on a bad day fails miserably at," she said.

Corzine's supporters point out that he has won significant victories in Trenton - without crowing about them. He did get a sales-tax hike, even though he could use only half of it to balance his budget. He did get a state comptroller, though that comptroller is not elected by voters. And, they say, he did get important, money-saving structural changes in state budgeting.

Now, the governor has weeks of negotiations ahead of him as he tries to get the Legislature to agree with his recession-era budget. At the same time, he is seeking reelection from an electorate that has been giving him low favorability ratings.

State Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R., Union) said the governor has to pull back proposals because he "has a history of developing plans in secret."

This time, though, Corzine vetted his budget proposals with trusted Statehouse allies, said one insider, who requested anonymity fearing a loss of access to the governor. The source also noted that as soon as public criticism began to mount on the property-tax write-off, Corzine quickly responded.

Seton Hall University political scientist Joseph Marbach said Corzine's most recent pullback showed he was adapting to Trenton.

"I don't think he quite got it early on. We saw that with the first budget, when he shut down the state. It seems he learned a little bit since then of give and take," Marbach said. "Also, what's developing is a sensitivity to the electorate."

While those nine days in March were painful, there were several brutal months in 2007 leading up to the governor's withdrawal of his plan to issue billions in bonds backed by toll hikes. The plan came out in bits and pieces in 2007 as the entire legislature was up for election.

Challengers and incumbents alike protested it, with a few holding news conferences at turnpike exits decrying the plan. The public outrage came out in meetings the governor held around the state, sometimes accompanied by protests, sometimes just people who wanted to vent about the government.

Democratic Party Chairman Joseph Cryan, also a Union County assemblyman, said Corzine stuck to his plans "until he saw the public didn't want it, and then he changed. Look at [former President George W.] Bush, who saw the public didn't want something and went ahead anyway."

Cryan, like other Corzine supporters, calls the governor "a tremendous listener."

Marbach, a professor at heart, said he would know that Corzine has learned when he has seen how the governor behaves with public employee unions. Corzine has asked them to forgo a pay hike and to take furloughs. If they don't, he has said he would have to lay off 7,000 people.

"If he backs down completely," Marbach said, "I'll reassess my judgment and say this guy's just worried about getting reelected."