N.J. governor's race draws national donors

National Democratic and Republican organizations have funneled more than $5 million into the New Jersey governor's race, but their ambitions extend far beyond the Garden State.

In fund-raising appeals, party leaders argue to potential donors that control of statehouses begins here and in Virginia, the only other state with a gubernatorial race this year.

Wins in those two key states, they argue, would create momentum that would lead to victories in next year's midterm congressional elections, as well as the more than 30 gubernatorial contests.

With control of statehouses goes influence over the congressional redistricting following the 2010 census.

Polls show the issues New Jersey residents care most about are jobs, taxes, and the state's high cost of living. But when voters go to the polls Nov. 3 to choose among Democratic Gov. Corzine, Republican Christopher J. Christie, and independent Chris Daggett, their votes could resonate beyond their personal bank accounts.

"This is one [race] where the perception becomes reality," said Rider University political scientist Ben Dworkin. "Because Virginia and New Jersey are the only two states with statewide elections in 2009, they will be interpreted and perceived as being some kind of premonition about the 2010 elections when Congress is up."

The national interest is reflected in the candidates' campaign accounts, which show significant dollars from around the country.

Of the $1.6 million Christie has raised, $218,000 has come from out-of-state donors, according to the latest state campaign finance records.

By the end of the primary season, Corzine had raised more than $4.5 million. Taking out the $3.2 million he gave himself, the rest was split roughly evenly between New Jersey and out-of-state donors.

The biggest chunks of outside money are coming from partisan groups interested in a national agenda. They are running campaigns independently of the candidates.

Over the summer, the Republican Governors Association spent more than $3.2 million on television advertising critical of Corzine with its "Watch what he does, not what he says" campaign. On Thursday, the group launched its new television campaign with an ad tagged "Corzine: tax, waste, debt, failure."

In the primary, a Democratic group largely funded by $1.4 million from the Democratic Governors Association ran television ads attacking Christie for giving out seven lucrative no-bid contracts while U.S. attorney. The group saw Christie as a more potent rival to Corzine in a general election than Republican primary candidate Steve Lonegan, a staunch conservative. The DGA also has sent funds to county and local Democratic groups.

With only two big races in the country, both candidates have had their pick of talent and stars to bring in.

On June 2, primary night, Corzine kicked off his campaign with an opening speech from Vice President Biden. The governor held a midsummer rally with President Obama, who remains popular in New Jersey, a deep-blue state. That presidential appearance was quickly turned into a television commercial. And the Corzine campaign hopes to have first lady Michelle Obama appear this fall.

Christie's campaign is filled with staffers who last worked for U.S. Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.), the party's 2008 Republican presidential candidate.

But mindful of the state's blue streak, the Christie campaign has not looked for national star power, so far bringing in only Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele to stump.

Polls since last summer show Christie leading Corzine. But New Jersey is a Democratic stronghold, where voters have not put a Republican in statewide office since 1997 or liked a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

The governors associations are hardly bashful about their interests in the outcome of the November election.

The Republican Governors Association trumpets on its Web page: "The RGA is ready to jump start the Republican comeback this year by winning governors races in New Jersey and Virginia."

Democrats take another side of the argument, with dire warnings that losses in New Jersey and Virginia would put Congress in the "clutches" of the GOP, according to a fund-raising note from Democratic consultant James Carville.

"If you ever feared that Republican operatives were sitting in some dark room plotting how to destroy the Democratic majorities and progressive policies we've worked so hard to create, your fear is real," he writes.

Of the country's 50 governors, 28 are Democrats and 22 Republicans. Next year, 34 seats are up for election. Of those, 18 are held by Democrats and 16 by Republicans.

All seats in the House are up in 2010 and are now held by 256 Democrats and 176 Republicans with three vacancies.

Whether New Jersey and Virginia would have the power to change those numbers might not really matter.

"It's what the media reports, what talking heads will be commenting on, what pundits will be pontificating on. And the perception that this has some kind of national significance becomes a reality that lots of people accept," said Rider's Dworkin. "Once people start accepting it across the nation, it carries a life of its own."

The winning party would be able to attract and keep higher-quality candidates for congressional races in 2010, and donors would be betting on what they believe is a rising stock, he said.

Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist who keeps a watchful eye on national political trends, said the notion that New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial contests foretell future elections is a myth.

He looked at the 11 gubernatorial races and subsequent midterm elections since 1965 and found that just two of those races for governor predicted midterm congressional results. Only Democratic Gov. Jim Florio's defeat in 1993 and Corzine's 2005 victory preceded same-party successes or failures in the midterms.

After Florio lost in 1993, Republicans took control of Congress in 1994. After Corzine won in 2005, Democrats took control of Congress in 2006.

"Two cases out of 11 does not make an ironclad case," Sabato said. But he added: "There are only two races in the country that matter in a whole election year. You have a lot of political reporters. Twenty-four-hour cable channels have to fill the time. We're always trying to read the tea leaves, and in this case you only have two tea leaves. Who knows if it's representative?"