Bill Fleischman: Stewart the man to beat in NASCAR'S Chase

TOP-SEEDED Denny Hamlin (six) and defending champion Jimmie Johnson (five) have won the most NASCAR Sprint Cup races this season.

Kevin Harvick led the standings for 16 consecutive weeks.

Kyle Busch has won three Cup races, plus 10 in Nationwide Series and four in the Camping World Truck series.

Any of them could be the next Cup champion. But my choice to win this year's Chase is . . .

Tony Stewart.

One factor in choosing the sixth-seeded Stewart is how he has run lately. His previous 10 finished include a win, two seconds and a fifth. He has the talent, experience and the team to gain his third Cup title. He has missed only one Chase, in 2006, when he finished 11th in the final year before the Chase was expanded to 12 drivers.

Referring to his win at Atlanta 2 weeks ago, Stewart said: "We just haven't been finding a feel that I like [in his No. 14 Chevrolet]. I feel like the last 10 weeks we've really started making gains."

Chaser Jeff Burton sums up the 10-race playoff: "Who is going to step up? It's go time. Every team is going to have to deal with adversity, but who deals with it best?"

Scouting the other Chasers (see standings below for seeding):

Hamlin: He has collected a career-high six wins. In last year's Chase, Hamlin won twice and finished second twice. He knows what he's doing in the Chase. "I definitely feel confident," Hamlin said yesterday from New York during the Chase media day. "But as confident as I am, we have to be smart."

Johnson: As the winner of an unprecedented four consecutive titles, he's the champion until someone dethrones him. Johnson cured a mild summer slump by finishing third in the previous two races. He's the only driver who has appeared in all seven Chases.

Kevin Harvick: Can't overlook a driver who led the Chase for 4 1/2 months. He has had an outstanding season after finishing 19th a year ago. In the 2008 Chase, Harvick had six top-10 finishes (one runner-up) on his way to fourth place.

Kyle Busch: This versatile driver is a threat to win every race. In the previous three Cup races, he finished first, fifth and second. Busch needs to avoid a bad start as he had 2 years ago, when he was the top seed. In his first three races, he finished 34th, 43rd and 28th. This is the first Chase for crew chief Dave Rogers.

Kurt Busch: He was the first Chase champion in 2004. He's won at least one regular-season race for nine consecutive years. Seems to be clicking with crew chief Steve Addington.

Greg Biffle: The confidence acquired with his victory at Pocono in August has been dented with finishes of 36th and 32nd, respectively, in the two races before the Chase.

Jeff Gordon: Although he hasn't won this year, he appears confident he'll be a factor in the Chase. Four-time Cup champion (last title, 2001). Gordon is tied with Jimmie Johnson with 32 career victories on the tracks that host Chase races.

Carl Edwards: He's soclose to winning for the first time since 2008. In the previous nine races, he has two runners-up and two thirds. Some of the Chase tracks are Edwards' favorites.

Burton: He always races below the radar, but he's experienced and focused. Expect him to run well at New Hampshire, where he has the most wins (four) of any driver.

Matt Kenseth: He's had the least-noticed season of any Chaser - no wins, one runner-up, four other top-fives. His 2003 title seems like forever. Kenseth: "I realize that if we keep our average finishes we've had for the first 26 races, there's not a snowball's chance of winning the championship. [But] I feel we've got our cars going faster than a few months ago."

Clint Bowyer: He withstood the challenges of Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray and Mark Martin for the final Chase qualifying berth with three consecutive top-10 finishes. Bowyer gained his first Cup victory in the 2007-opening Chase race at New Hampshire.

Nine of the Chasers were on my preseason selection list. I didn't have Burton, Kenseth and Bowyer as 2010 Chasers. My three misses were Mark Martin, David Reutimann and Juan Pablo Montoya.

THIS WEEK'S RACE

Sylvania 300

New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, N.H.

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV/Radio: ESPN/WNPV (1440-AM), WDSD (94.7-FM)

Race course: 1.058-mile oval

Forecast: Partly cloudy, 71 degrees

Race distance: 300 laps/317.4 miles

2009 winner: Mark Martin

2009 pole: Juan Pablo Montoya, 133.431 mph (track record)

Track facts: Mark Martin led 68 laps, including the final 29, in gaining last year's victory. Denny Hamlin was runner-up; Juan Pablo Montoya was third. Jimmie Johnson won here in June . . . New Hampshire is no place for repeat winners: Different drivers have won the last 11 races . . . Jeff Burton has the most wins (4) at New Hampshire. Johnson, Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon are three-time winners . . . The 40th annual BPG Racing Freedom 76 modified stock-car race is 7 p.m. Saturday at Grandview Speedway in Bechtelsville, Pa.

Wins: Denny Hamlin, 6; Jimmie Johnson, 5; Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch, 3 each; Jamie McMurray and Kurt Busch, 2 each; Ryan Newman, David Reutimann, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, 1 each.

SPRINT CUP STANDINGS (Through 26 of 36 races)

1. Denny Hamlin 5060

2. Jimmie Johnson 5050

3. Kevin Harvick 5030

4. Kyle Busch 5030

5. Kurt Busch 5020

6. Tony Stewart 5010

7. Greg Biffle 5010

8. Jeff Gordon 5000

9. Carl Edwards 5000

10. Jeff Burton 5000

11. Matt Kenseth 5000

12. Clint Bowyer 5000

Note: Seeding for the Chase based on finishes

THE REMAINING RACES

Sept. 26: AAA 400, Dover, Del. (1 p.m., ESPN; 2009 winner: Jimmie Johnson)

Oct. 3: Kansas 400, Kansas City, Kan. (1 p.m., ESPN; 2009 winner: Tony Stewart)

Oct. 10: Pepsi Max 400, Fontana, Calif. (3 p.m., ESPN; 2009 winner: Jimmie Johnson)

Oct. 16: Banking 500, Concord, N.C. (7:30 p.m., 6ABC; 2009 winner: Jimmie Johnson)

Oct. 24: Tums Fast Relief 500, Martinsville, Va. (1 p.m., ESPN; 2009 winner: Denny Hamlin)

Oct. 31: AMP Energy 500, Talladega, Ala. (1 p.m., ESPN; 2009 winner: Jamie McMurray)

Nov. 7: Lone Star 500, Fort Worth, Texas (3 p.m., ESPN; 2009 winner: Kurt Busch)

Nov. 14: Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500, Avondale, Ariz. (3 p.m., ESPN; 2009 winner: Jimmie Johnson)

Nov. 21: Ford 400, Homestead, Fla. (1 p.m., ESPN; 2009 winner: Denny Hamlin)