Paul Hagen: Why not to start Halladay in NLDS Game 1

If Charlie Manuel is reading this, he might want to stop right now. After all, the Phillies' manager rightly doesn't like to look ahead, preferring to simply focus on the game at hand. But what the hell? We're going to look all the way ahead to setting up his rotation for the first round of the playoffs.

Insert standard boilerplate here: No, the Phillies haven't clinched anything yet. Yes, the lessons of 1964 are still painfully remembered. No, they can't take anything for granted. Yes, they still have to go out and win the games they're supposed to.

But . . .

The last 2 days the Phillies were in Florida changed the entire calculus of the remainder of the season. Not only did they increase their lead from one to three games that quickly, but the second-place Braves begin a nine-game road trip tonight. And while Atlanta has the best home record in baseball, it is just 31-41 away from Turner Field. The Phillies are right where they want to be with Atlanta coming to town for a three-game series beginning Monday.

So for amusement purposes only, we're going to make two proposals. The first is that the Phillies will make the playoffs. The second is that they should NOT start Roy Halladay in Game 1 of the NLDS if there's a way to avoid it.

That takes nothing away from the season Doc is having. He might well be the front-runner to win the Cy Young Award. He's got a great chance to become the Phillies' first 20-game winner since Steve Carlton in 1982, and first Phillies righthander since Robin Roberts in 1955.

At the same time, when it comes to hitters, Manuel is inclined to go with the hot hand. Applying the same logic to starting pitchers, the reality is that both Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt have pitched better recently. Since the July 31 trading deadline:

Halladay is 7-2, 3.25. He has allowed 67 hits in 63 2/3 innings and opponents are hitting .270 against him.

Hamels is 4-3, 2.01. He has allowed 45 hits in 62 2/3 innings and opponents are batting .197.

Oswalt is 6-0, 1.56. He has allowed 35 hits in 57 2/3 innings and opponents are batting .177.

Both Hamels and Oswalt have postseason experience, but that really isn't relevant here. Cliff Lee had never pitched in the playoffs before last season and he did just fine. And Halladay may never have a more emotional start than he did June 25 against his former team, the Blue Jays. He pitched seven shutout innings that night.

The tipping point, at least from this vantage point, is that Halladay leads the majors in innings pitched. It's logical to suggest, then, that he would most benefit from a little extra rest.

The ticklish part is that by the unwritten rules of baseball, Halladay deserves the start. He has the most service time. He has the biggest contract. He has the only Cy Young in the group. He has done nothing to pitch himself out of that honor. And all that counts for something, too.

Look, things could change. Halladay could find a second wind. The Phillies could wrap up their spot early enough to give him a break before the playoffs start. If the Phillies end up playing San Diego in the first round, they might want Oswalt to pitch in Petco Park, where he has a 0.60 ERA in two starts this season. There are a lot of factors to be considered. And if the Phillies have to fight down to the end just to make it, they might not have a whole lot of choice, anyway.

And Charlie, if you're still with us, just remember that free advice is worth what you pay for it.

Of all the tributes retiring Braves manager Bobby Cox has received during his farewell season, this might be the most unusual. A large cornfield maze in McDonough, Ga., just south of Atlanta, has Cox' likeness mowed into it along with the words "Thanks, Bobby" on the side.

Check it out at http://southernbellefarm.com/cornfieldMaze.php

Atlanta's recent woes have a lot to do with the sudden struggles of Tim Hudson (10 earned runs allowed in 11 1/3 innings pitched in his last two starts) and Jair Jurrjens (6.32 ERA in his last three starts).

AOL Fanhouse reports that former Florida Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez has declined an invitation to interview for the Cubs' opening. If true, that would likely mean that he already has been assured he will succeed Cox on the bench at Turner Field.

The Mets had their official team picture taken before Wednesday's game. Two players who are on the disabled list couldn't be there: Johan Santana and Francisco Rodriguez. A team official told the New York Daily News that Santana will be photoshopped in but was noncommittal if the same will be done for K-Rod, who was injured when he got into a fight in the family room at Citi Field. "The final composition has not been decided," the staffer said.

Royals manager Ned Yost has issued a thinly veiled warning that he'll be watching the remainder of the season closely and making decisions about who fits and who doesn't. "For a lot of these guys, this is the most important 3 weeks of their lives," he said. "There is plenty of room to [to be part of] what we've got going on this team. They've got the first opportunity to prove they can be here when the time is right."

The Indians were the only American League team to have nine straight road interleague games in 2010, meaning they had to play a lengthy stretch without a designated hitter. They asked that their road interleague games be split up a little better next season. That request must have gotten lost in the mail. They're at San Francisco, Arizona and Cincinnati from June 24 to July 3, 2011.

Rays manager Joe Maddon thinks batting practice is overrated, especially at this time of year. "It matters nothing. It's about keeping guys fresh. They swing way too much," he said.

The answer

Some have wondered why the Braves didn't juggle their rotation, like the Phillies did, to get the best possible matchups for the big series that begins Monday at Citizens Bank Park.

Manager Bobby Cox could have flip-flopped Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson to ensure that Hudson would pitch both tonight in New York and Wednesday in Philadelphia, and have Hanson pitch on 6 days' rest in New York. But the feeling in Atlanta was that that didn't make much sense. Hanson is pitching as well as or better than Hudson recently. They might have skipped rookie Mike Minor, but that wasn't feasible with him in line to pitch this past Wednesday against the Nationals. "You really can't do much," Cox told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution

The Phillies will get a break this weekend when they play the Nationals and continue their quest to wrap up a fourth straight division title. The Washington Post reported that sparkplug centerfielder Nyjer Morgan will begin serving an eight-game suspension tonight (a reduction from what was originally a pair of suspensions totaling 15 games). Coincidentally, that happened immediately after Morgan played in the series against Atlanta in which the last-place Nationals won two of three, just the second home series the Braves have lost all season.

The Phillies have scored 10 or more runs in four of their last 14 games. They had done it twice in their previous 54 games.

If the Phils finish with the overall No. 1 NL seed, they have the option to choose to start the Division Series on Oct. 6 and be off on Oct. 7, meaning they would be able to keep their top three on a regular 5-day rotation throughout and not need a fourth starter until NLCS Game 4 at the earliest.

The Phillies are 28-12 when Wilson Valdez, who has been playing in place of the injured Jimmy Rollins, scores or drives in a run. They are 28-29 when he plays and does neither. This note is courtesy of Bob Vetrone Jr., who notices that sort of stuff.

Astros righthander Brett Myers, on Monday, became just the ninth pitcher since 1920 to open a season with 30 straight starts of at least six innings.

Ryan Howard has become just the third Phillies player to drive in at least 100 runs for five consecutive seasons. Sam Thompson did it from 1892-96 and Chuck Klein from 1929-33. They both are in the Hall of Fame.