John Baer: Contrarian poll sees Specter and Sestak even
ARLEN SPECTER'S scheduled for a Q&A at a Pennsylvania Press Club luncheon today, his fourth appearance since the club's founding 14 years ago.
ARLEN SPECTER'S scheduled for a Q&A at a Pennsylvania Press Club luncheon today, his fourth appearance since the club's founding 14 years ago.
No one's been a guest as often.
It's one more record for the octogenarian Republican-turned-Democrat whose enduring career, no matter what you think of him, is remarkable.
One question facing Specter is whether that career's in imminent danger.
The Democratic Senate primary is just four weeks away and the latest poll shows Specter in a virtual tie with challenger Joe Sestak.
Is that possible? Is something happening that other polls aren't picking up?
The average of four independent polls (Franklin & Marshall, Quinnipiac, Susquehanna and Rasmussen) shows Specter up 14.3 points; the latest of them, by Rasmussen Reports, shows Specter up only 2 points.
But polls vary in size of sample, execution and margin of error.
For example: a Quinnipiac University Poll released April 7 sampled 921 likely Democratic primary voters and has Specter up 21 points, 53-32, with a margin of error of 3.2 percent; a Rasmussen Poll released April 13 sampled 435 likely Democratic primary voters and has Specter up 2 points, 44-42, with a margin of error of 5 percent.
Both polls are well-known, used in lots of states and nationally. But neither campaign aired TV ads during periods when the polls were taken; neither campaign had a major development, so why the broad disparity?
I sought out Rasmussen Reports boss Scott Rasmussen for an explanation.
(A poll note: Rasmussen uses automated calls; Quinnipiac uses people; there's debate over which is more effective.)
"Whenever I see polls that have a difference, I look for common ground," says Rasmussen, a pollster since 1994 who founded Rasmussen Reports in 2003.
He says common ground here is Specter staying in the 40s or low 50s, never a good sign for a longtime incumbent. He also says that he was first to show that Republican Scott Brown could win in Massachusetts, and that while others in Jersey had incumbent Jon Corzine leading, he had now-Gov. Chris Christie ahead.
Solid arguments suggesting that Rasmussen gets something others don't.
But there's a catch and a caveat.
Rasmussen concedes that his polls draw higher percentages of support for challengers because "people are reluctant to say something negative to another person" about incumbents, but show no such reluctance when talking to a machine.
This surprises me. People never seem reluctant to say negative things to me. But, Rasmussen says, trust him - he's seen the pattern for 15 years.
He also concedes that although it appears Sestak is moving and Specter is not, Specter "still has to be considered the favorite."
I'd note that the day after Rasmussen showed the Specter/Sestak race a dead heat, it released a poll showing a race between President Obama and Texas conservative/libertarian Rep. Ron Paul a tie: Obama 42, Paul 41.
This strikes me as a little unrealistic and just a tad goofy.
The point is, Specter/Sestak polling so far is meaningless, too. Nothing moves numbers like TV, and both sides have money - Specter $9 million, Sestak $5 million - for lots of ads from now to May 18.
(A money note: Federal contributions are limited "per election"; either candidate could have maxed-out contributors for the primary and the general and, therefore, have less to spend now than it appears.)
So this campaign is just starting for average voters about to see ads saying what Specter's done for the state and ads that tie him to Republicans George Bush and Rick Santorum and call for generational change.
And then we'll see.
You can see Specter at the press club on PCN, the Pennsylvania Cable Network, tonight at 10:30. (Sestak addressed the club last month.) And we all can see, very soon, if his long career is in any immediate danger.
Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.
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