John Baer: Code Red

IS THE EXTRAORDINARY - and until recently, unimaginable - Republican victory in yesterday's Massachusetts Senate race an albatross around the neck of President Obama, an omen of Democratic shipwrecks to come?

Losing a seat held 47 years by the late Ted Kennedy, the lion of Democratic liberalism, can't be spun many other ways.

GOP state Senator (and former Cosmo nudie model; who could make that up?) Scott Brown beat state Attorney General Martha "The Misspeller" Coakley (she misspelled her home state in a campaign ad) after trailing Coakley by 30 points last fall, 54-24, in a Suffolk University Poll.

That it happened in the state that, based on results of the last five presidential elections, is America's "bluest" has to sound a Democratic alarm.

That it follows Democratic losses in governors' races in New Jersey and Virginia, states that, like Massachusetts, Obama won in 2008, serves to sound that alarm more loudly.

And because Brown's win robs Democrats of a 60-member, filibuster-proof majority, it carries the potential of slowing or halting Obama's agenda and health-care reform; and it forewarns Democratic candidates in upcoming midterm elections.

A national Democratic consultant confides that he's telling clients, "A hurricane's coming and you live in a beach house."

Still, on the first anniversary of Obama's inauguration, and no matter what else happens electorally this year, it's too soon for any but the most partisan to declare this president lost at sea.

For two main reasons: first-year public-approval numbers fail to predict final performance; and health care ain't dead yet.

After one year in office, President Reagan's Gallup Poll approval rating was 49 percent (Obama's is 50) and dropped to 40 percent during year two. When Reagan left office, he was at 63 percent.

After one year, President Clinton's approval was 53 percent (he dropped to 37 percent midway through that year). When he left the White House, he was at 66 percent.

George W. Bush's one-year number was 83 percent. By the time he left it was 34 percent.

So, one year does not define a presidency.

It's also too soon to make a call on health care. With or without 60 Democratic Senators, Obama still can get a health-care bill if the House passes what the Senate passed, a move now under discussion.

None of this is to say that Obama's ride isn't bumpy or that he hasn't done things, large and small, costing him public support.

He expanded the war in Afghanistan, failed to deliver on specific promises and took annoying taxpayer-costly jaunts in a bad economy at a time of war: the New York City "date night" with the first lady last spring, and the Martha's Vineyard posh vacation just last summer.

Remember his pledge to reduce "earmarks," those customized sugarplums favored members of Congress give to their districts using your dollars?

Obama said he'd trim them back to 1994 levels, or $7.8 billion per fiscal year. But the watchdog group Taxpayers for Common Sense says that "earmarks" already total more than $10 billion since the fiscal year began Oct. 1.

Remember candidate Obama saying that health-care negotiations would be shown on C-Span so that voters wouldn't get stuck with policies crafted by backroom deals? I guess my C-Span reception's bad.

Remember him speaking out against concealed weapons and in favor of tougher background checks? The Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence yesterday gave him a first-year "F" for failure to lead on gun-law issues.

But despite two wars and a 10-percent unemployment rate, Obama holds that 50 percent approval rating. That he hasn't delivered on all his promises cannot be a shock.

The question is, are there shocks coming? I mean, beyond that one in Massachusetts.

Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.

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