John Baer: Is it time for Arlen to rejoin Democrats?
MAYBE IT'S time Arlen came home. I mean Arlen Specter. And I mean to the Democratic Party. He was, after all, a Democrat during his first few decades (went Republican in '65 to run for D.A.); maybe he should be a Democrat in his last few.
MAYBE IT'S time Arlen came home.
I mean Arlen Specter. And I mean to the Democratic Party.
He was, after all, a Democrat during his first few decades (went Republican in '65 to run for D.A.); maybe he should be a Democrat in his last few.
And maybe, as he seeks his sixth Senate term, that's how he could hang onto the office he has held longer than any other Pennsylvanian.
I say this because of news this week that former Lehigh Valley congressman and conservative Republican Pat Toomey is "considering" challenging Specter in next year's GOP Senate primary. Yesterday, wealthy GOP Pittsburgh businessman Glen Meakem, who thought about running, said he will not be a candidate, I assume because he knows "considering" in pol-speak usually means "I'm in."
If that's what Toomey means, it's bad news for Specter.
The 79-year-old, 30-year incumbent narrowly survived a 2004 Toomey challenge to win renomination with a scant 1.6 percent of the vote, a margin of just 17,146 votes out of more than 1.04 million cast.
And with Specter one of only three Republican senators supporting President Obama's economic- stimulus efforts - an action many conservatives see as worse than opposing Reagan Supreme Court nominee Robert Bork in 1987 for which Specter was labeled "Benedict Arlen" - the long knives are out.
And, yeah, I know Specter said "no" when asked if he'd consider a switch. (He also said Gov. Ed pledged to raise money for a Democratic Specter, to which Specter replied, "If I became a Democrat, I wouldn't have to raise any money.")
But deep-water politics has ever-changing currents. And some things that have changed since '04 do not flow Specter's way.
There are, for example, 239,000 Pennsylvania voters (mostly Republicans) who switched last year to the Democratic Party. There's little question the vast majority are moderate Specter voters.
That leaves a far-more-conservative pool of GOP primary voters, one in which the 47-year-old Toomey can float but Specter could well sink.
Also, Specter in '04 was endorsed by the state's other incumbent Republican senator, Rick Santorum, and by the incumbent Republican president, George W. Bush.
The only people on the right pushing Arlen this time will be those trying to push him out the door.
I recently asked Specter about this. He said, "Well, I think it is tougher this time for those reasons and others."
He said he's working to get party-switchers back by spending money to identify and contact them.
He doesn't say there's at least a possibility of changing state law to allow independents to vote in primaries or allow "open" cross-party primaries such as are held in a dozen-plus states.
(I suspect he doesn't say this because it would be a progressive, pro-voter development and we are, after all, in Pennsylvania.)
Democratic state chairman T.J. Rooney says it's "highly unlikely" Specter switches, but "in the abstract he would have a compelling argument . . . we all pray every night we don't have to run again against Arlen Specter."
GOP state boss Rob Gleason says even though he was "very angry" with Specter over the stimulus vote, "Arlen Specter is a Republican and I would rather have Arlen Specter than anyone the Democrats put up."
Gleason concedes that many Republicans are unhappy with Arlen, but notes that's nothing new.
What is new is a shifting political landscape that makes it tough for a conservative to win a general election, which argues against a Toomey run.
Unless enough GOPers are willing to sacrifice a Senate seat just to get rid of Specter. In which case maybe Specter ought to think about, you know, coming home. *
Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.
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