John Baer: Campaign '08: That's a wrap

BARACK OBAMA appears positioned to wrap up Campaign '08 in the final presidential debate tomorrow night at Hofstra University.

It is likely the last shot for any dramatic change in the race.

And barring blunders, a terrorist attack or some other personal/political blow-up, it's hard to see how John McCain reverses trends or turns around his own bewildering campaign.

It's harder to see, having watched two debates, how he does so at Hofstra.

So much favors the Illinois senator, including all new independent polls.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll, for example, says Obama's up 10 points, 53-43, says 90 percent of Americans see the country moving in the wrong direction and shows President Bush's approval rating at a record-low 23 percent, just one point above the all-time low: Harry Truman at 22 percent in 1952.

Nothing in these findings is helpful to McCain.

The Los Angeles Times reports that Obama has outraised McCain more than 2-to-1 and is outspending him by huge amounts in key states such as Florida and Pennsylvania.

(Obama has a slight lead in Florida; in Pennsylvania, a Marist Poll puts Obama up 12 points among likely voters.)

And the Wall Street Journal reports that the Obama/Biden ticket and spouses made nearly twice as many visits to swing states in the past five weeks as McCain/Palin and spouses.

Leads in money, polls and work ethic with three weeks to go would seem to trump McCain's "fight, fight, fight" theme unveiled yesterday during a speech in Virginia.

"I'm not afraid of the fight," he said, "I'm ready for it."

Good to know.

But there is no mystery how we got to where we are.

It started with McCain tied to eight years of failed foreign and domestic policies - including a war longer than WWII - perpetrated by an unpopular president and a less popular Congress, which was Republican-run for six of those years.

Trying to sell "change" as a member of the party that spurred the need for change made McCain's campaign manic.

From his proposed gas-tax

holiday last summer to his "who is the real Obama" last week, McCain has offered a dizzying variety of messages and topics, in contrast to the consistent, targeted, calm and cool approach of his opponent.

Mostly, McCain's campaign has been one of distraction, dissembling and dimwittedness.

Selecting Sarah Palin was a stunt to bring energy to a political ticket, to win a campaign rather than put "country first."

She's done little other than up the ratings and employment security of late-night TV comics.

Does anyone, including McCain, believe his assertion that Palin "knows more about energy than probably anyone else in the United States of America"?

On the economy, does anyone, including McCain, believe our economic fundamentals are "strong"?

Does anyone think his "suspended" campaign and threat to skip the first debate to deal with crises in the "strong" economy was anything other than a misplayed ruse?

And does anyone think this election, as defined by McCain campaign manager Rick Davis, is "not about issues"?

McCain stressed reform of "earmarks" while the whole economy is in jeopardy.

He questioned Obama's association, judgment and truthfulness regarding '60s radical William Ayers one day, then called Obama "a decent person . . . a person you do not have to be scared of as president" the next.

And the thing about aggressive character attacks? Makes no political sense. Might excite the GOP base but turns off moderate and independent voters needed to win the election.

What has happened is one candidate looks and feels like a steady, intelligent leader, the other like a misfiring politician.

I suspect Obama sits on his lead tomorrow night. I suspect McCain calls himself a fighter. Which is why I suspect Campaign '08 might be close to a wrap. *

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