Clout: Tears, tears - and a poll from afar

CLOUT IS all about change this week. And crying.

Change is good. Crying is good.

Sometimes crying creates change. It did in New Hampshire this week when poll-leader Barack Obama's soft support leaked away to a suddenly sympathetic and teary Hillary Clinton.

It's OK to cry.

We cried at "Atonement." We cried at "Super Size Me." We'll cry at state Sen. Vince Fumo's fraud trial.

Which brings us to a poll conducted over the weekend in Fumo's district.

The pollster, using a call center in India, told voters that Fumo was being supported by Gov. Rendell, Mayor Nutter and D.A. Lynne Abraham.

This despite the fact none of the three has endorsed anyone.

It also mentioned Fumo's legal troubles.

"In a thick Indian accent the guy said [Fumo] was under a 139-count 'in-dick-ment,' " said one respondent, who was called Sunday afternoon.

The poll went on to ask if the following are viewed favorably: Fumo, City Councilman Jim Kenney, former Councilman Joe Vignola, Anne Dicker and Renee Gilinger.

Kenney is a Fumo ally.

Vignola is considering an April primary run against Fumo.

Dicker has already announced.

Gilinger is co-founder of the Liberty City Lesbian and Gay Democratic Club.

The blogosphere has concluded this a Fumo poll. It speculates that Fumo is gauging the support of Kenney as a possible successor, and Gilinger as a possible spoiler to draw votes from Dicker.

Fumo doesn't talk about his polls, but people close to him do. And they say it's not his.

For one thing, it's rare for a political pollster to use an Indian call center.

For another, it's not in Fumo's interest to get Rendell, Nutter and Abraham angry by claiming their support before he has it.

Finally, Kenney has told Fumo that he doesn't want the Senate seat. So why put his name in?

Vignola and Dicker also deny responsibility. The poll's sponsor remains a mystery for now.

Also a mystery are Vignola's intentions.

"We've given a lot of thought to it and will . . . probably make some sort of public announcement later this month," Vignola said yesterday.

When asked for a hint, he said, "We're leaning heavily one way."

What a tease!

Well, in the absence of facts there's only one place to turn: Rank speculation.

And here it is: Recent polls show Vignola and Dicker splitting the opposition vote, giving Fumo an easy victory.

In head-to-head matchups Fumo still leads, but only by a few points.

That means either Vignola or Dicker needs to drop out to give the other a shot. Dicker says she's in it to stay regardless of how many candidates file.

Vignola, therefore, may be considering a run in November as an independent, when Fumo would be weakened by his fraud trial, which is scheduled for September, and even more vulnerable.

Perzel: Running again

Even as Fumo's enemies plot his demise, there were rumors about the city's other legislative power broker, state Rep. John Perzel, abandoning his career.

Not so, says Perzel consultant Marty O'Rourke.

"It sounds like wishful thinking on certain people's part," he said.

Perzel didn't return our calls, but another associate said that Perzel had been doing some "soul-searching" recently.

This may be because Perzel lost his mother last month. He's also unhappy that Republican colleague state Rep. George Kenney is not seeking re-election.

Kenney did not return our calls, but was said to be not ready to announce his plans. We're happy to do it for him.

In the end, however, our source says Perzel, former - and perhaps future - House speaker, has decided to run.

There will be blood

Change-seeking voters will find a number of legislative incumbents with opposition in the April primary.

Sharif Street has told people he's seriously considering another run against state Rep. Frank Oliver (although Street wouldn't return our calls). If Street runs, he'll have to quit the Zoning Code Commission.

Dem state reps who figure to have opponents in the primary include Rosita Youngblood, Harold James, Jewell Williams, John Myers and W. Curtis Thomas.

Democrats Brendan Boyle, who ran two years ago, and Kenny Bove, a top lieutenant to ward leader John Sabatina, are likely candidates for George Kenney's open seat.

Democratic ward leader Harry Engasser figures to take another shot at Republican state Rep. John Taylor in November.

Lynne: No go for A.G.

Democratic State Committee meets in Harrisburg this weekend to be wooed by statewide candidates seeking party endorsement.

One who won't be wooing is D.A. Lynne Abraham, who has told friends that she's decided not to run for state attorney general.

We tried to confirm with her adviser, Eleanor Dezzi, but Dezzi would say only that Lynne's "not making any formal annoucement at this time." Thus, Clout makes an informal one.

That leaves Northampton County D.A. John Morganelli as the leading A.G. contender. If he gets the nod,

he'll face incumbent Tom Corbett.

The one open-seat statewide office this year is treasurer. There's no shortage of candidates. Said to be in the mix for the endorsement are Bucks County Dem chairman John Cordisco, venture capitalist Rob McCord, state Rep. Jennifer Mann, Philadelphian Dennis Wesley Morrison and former mayoral candidate Tom Knox.

Nutter I: "The Wire"

We all learned this week that presidential candidate Barack Obama is a fan of the gritty HBO drama "The Wire." So is Mayor Nutter. So much so, in fact, that he watched the first episode early last week on Comcast OnDemand.

But it was a rather sobering experience for the newbie mayor. In the season opener, reformer Baltimore Mayor Carcetti is in major trouble - the city is flat broke and he can't afford to pay for any of the anti-crime initiatives he promised on the campaign trail. Nutter hopes life doesn't imitate art.

Nutter II: The tickets

The early days of an administration can be chaotic.

Several sources reported that a number of VIPs failed to get invitations to Nutter's inaugural ball this week, forcing the mayor to make last-minute ruffled-feathers-smoothing calls.

We're confident now that former colleague and Clout contributor Mark McDonald has joined the administration, such chaos will disappear. Or get reported to Clout. *

Staff writers Gar Joseph, Catherine Lucey, John M. Baer and Chris Brennan contributed to this report.