The Sixers’ starters have been blitzing the Raptors bench. How might Toronto adjust in game 4? | David Murphy

Before the start of practice on Saturday afternoon, somebody asked JJ Redick about the Sixers’ mind-set as they head into Game 4 with a 2-1 series lead. The veteran shooting guard talked about the need to anticipate the adjustments that the Raptors might make and prepare oneself accordingly. Don’t overthink it, he said. Just be ready.

“I think you try to stay one step ahead of them,” Redick said.

It isn’t difficult to guess what those adjustments might look like.

Throughout the series, Toronto coach Nick Nurse has remained committed to the substitution pattern that he has deployed all postseason. While the Sixers have taken the unorthodox approach of putting their starters on the court for the beginning of the fourth quarter, the Raptors have remained steadfast in relying on their bench for the final few minutes of the third and the first few minutes of the fourth.

The results have been heavily in the Sixers’ favor, to an extent that should force Nurse’s hand in Game 4. In both of the last two games, those handful of minutes at the start of the fourth quarter have resulted in decisive scoring runs for the Sixers. In their Game 2 win, they outscored the Raptors, 13-4, over a five-minute stretch in which Toronto had between two and four subs on the floor. In Game 3, their lead grew from eight to 17 in the first 2 minutes, 59 seconds of the fourth with Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green on the bench and Norman Powell and Fred Van Vleet in the game.

The solution to the problem has grown slightly less obvious now that the Raptors have listed Pascal Siakam as doubtful for Game 4 with a calf bruise he sustained on the same leg that he used to trip Joel Embiid in the second half of Game 3. Still, it would seem to make a lot of sense for the Raptors to do everything they can to minimize the number of minutes their bench players are forced to contend with a full Sixers starting lineup.

Of the 55 minutes the Sixers’ first unit has been on the court together this series, 17 have come against some iteration of the Raptors’ bench. In those 17 minutes, the Sixers have outscored the Raptors, 39-22, with the Powell/Van Vleet pairing having been particularly advantageous. When the Raptors have been at full strength against the Sixers’ starters, they’ve outscored them, 89-83, in the series, including 33-21 in the Game 2 loss.

Which is why the performance of Joel Embiid and the rest of the first unit in Game 3 was a particularly encouraging development, at least from the Sixers’ perspective. After back-to-back games in which he struggled against Marc Gasol, Embiid scored 29 of his 33 points with the Raptors’ big man on the court. Overall, the Sixers were plus-29 in the 21 minutes that Embiid and Gasol were on the court together.

One thing to note about Embiid’s improvement is that it stemmed largely from his ability to sink three-point shots and get to the foul line. In Games 1 and 2, he scored just nine points and was just 3-of-4 from the foul line and 0-for-3 from three-point range against Gasol. In Game 3, he was 3-of-4 from long range and 12-of-13 from the foul line.

Another positive sign is the increasing cohesiveness of the Sixers’ first unit. In Games 1 and 2, they turned the ball over 12 times when matched up against the Raptors’ starters, which played a significant role in their minus-17 point differential during those stretches. In Game 3, the Sixers’ starters committed just one turnover in their 12 minutes of action against the Raptors’ first unit.

“It’s been a key of emphasis for us from even when we were playing Brooklyn," Tobias Harris said. “Especially versus this type of team, we know how good they are in transition, so limiting the turnovers and getting good shots, high quality shots is going to be key for us.”

If the Raptors do indeed alter their rotation, it could shine an even brighter spotlight on the matchup between Leonard and Ben Simmons on the defensive end. Thus far, Simmons has been on the court for 101 of Leonard’s 116 minutes. While Leonard has been phenomenal regardless of who is guarding him, he has been nearly unstoppable with Simmons on the bench, scoring 20 points on 7-of-9 shooting in those 15 minutes. As a team, the Raptors are 14-of-23 (61 percent) from the field and 4-of-9 (44.4 percent) from three-point range when Simmons is off the court compared with 83-of-179 (46.4 percent) and 18-of-62 (29 percent) when he is on it.

“It’s Kawhi,” Simmons said. “He’s going to make tough shots just like any great player. You’ve just got to make it tough on him, can’t give him easy looks. Just be present in the moment.”

When all is said and done, the series is most likely going to hinge on Embiid’s continued ability to score on Gasol and Simmons’ ability to limit the damage that Leonard inflicts. If the Sixers can at least come away from those two matchups on even ground, they have the talent to outplay the Raptors on the rest of the court.

One thing is for certain: the pressure is on Toronto to adjust.