The Sixers remain a mystery outside of Joel Embiid with a deceptively tough playoff matchup looming | David Murphy

How big of a load can the big guy carry? It’s a question we were asking last April, and recent events suggest that the answer will be no less relevant this time around. With two games remaining and the No. 3 seed now locked up, one of the few things we know for sure about this Sixers team is that they remain reliant on Joel Embiid on both ends of the court to a disconcerting degree.

You saw it in wins over the Bucks and Celtics last month, and then you saw the flip side of it in a loss to Milwaukee on Thursday. In victories that featured a combined margin of eight points, Embiid scored 77 points, grabbed 37 rebounds, attempted 48 shots from the field, and made 26-of-28 from the foul line. This, while playing 35 minutes against the Bucks and 41 against the Celtics. Then, on Thursday, in his first game back from a three-game load management absence, Embiid was the only player who offered even a modicum of resistance against Giannis Antentokounmpo, but made just 12 of 31 from the field in a 128-122 loss to Milwaukee.

One of the positive revelations to come from this Sixers season is Embiid’s ability to play the hero, thanks in large part to his dramatically improved footwork and body control, both on the move and with his back to the basket. It’s a decided advantage to have a player capable of carrying a team through 48 minutes. Lately, though, it has looked as if Embiid might have to do so four times in a series in order for the Sixers to advance.

That’s an interesting situation in which to find themselves, given the lengths to which the organization has gone to remake this roster into one better positioned to answer the postseason’s unique demands. When they included Robert Covington, Dario Saric and Landry Shamet in the packages they traded away in exchange for Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris, the thought was that their ability to stagger five legitimate scorers and get 15-20 minutes of court time with the five of them together each night would make up for the loss of depth that they’d incur by essentially trading three rotation players for two.

It’s debatable whether that vision has indeed come to fruition. On the one hand, the Sixers have won eight of the 10 games that the current starting five has played together, including victories over heavyweights like the Bucks, Celtics, Pacers and Nuggets, as well as an impressive win over the Nets, who they have a strong chance at facing in the first round after Brooklyn’s win over the Pacers on Sunday. Given the various absences of each individual member, it is easy to forget just how productive the group has been when they have been on the court together. As a unit, they’ve outscored opponents by an impressive 19.5 points on a per-100-possession basis, including 104.9 points allowed.

The flip side is that the erosion of depth -- in particular the loss of Saric -- has only increased the importance of Embiid remaining healthy, especially on the defensive end. Consider that last year’s starting five allowed an average of just 98.4 points per 100 possessions when on the court together, nearly seven points less than the current group.

“I’m not worried,” Embiid said after the Sixers’ loss to the Bucks on Thursday. “I feel like we’re going into the playoffs, we’ve only played really, what, 10 games together, and we’ve got so much talent that we’ve just got to rely on our talent. I feel like we already understand each other really well. We all have a great relationship, and that helps a lot on the court, so I don’t really see a problem. Everything changes in the playoffs. Players got to make plays, make plays on talent. We’re going to be fine.”

But a disproportionate amount of that burden remains on the bowling-ball shoulders of No. 21. This season, the Sixers have lost nine of the 16 games in which Embiid did not play. In those 16 games, they have allowed an average of 115.7 points per game, four points more than they have in Embiid’s 64 starts. The difference in their production when he is off the court versus on it is staggering. They score 5.1 more points per 100 possessions and allow 4.7 fewer with him than without him.

None of this is new, of course. The drop-off without Embiid last year was just as dramatic (slightly more so, actually). What is new, however, is the expectations. Everything we have seen and heard from Elton Brand and his bosses suggests that they view this team as being significantly more capable than the version that beat the Heat in five and then lost to the Celtics in five. Majority owner Josh Harris left little doubt about management’s mindset when he told ESPN in March that he thought the Sixers had the talent “to go very deep in the playoffs,” and that “we want to make sure at a minimum to advance deeper in the playoffs than we did last year.”

The accuracy of that assessment could depend in large measure on the number of minutes the Sixers need to survive each night when Embiid is on the bench. Against the Celtics last postseason, he averaged 37.5 minutes per game.

How much can he handle this time around? 40 minutes? 42?

“If that’s what I’m asked to do, of course I’m going to do it,” he said after the loss to the Bucks. “Nights like tonight, I’ve got to go back and take care of my body, make sure I’m good. So I’ve got to keep doing it. But whatever I’m asked to do, I’ll provide.”

Right now, it’s looking like they’ll need it.