We might be underestimating the Sixers, and Jimmy Butler is why | David Murphy

Over the last month, a creeping fatalism has settled into Sixers watchers like a springtime fog. Part of that is due to the stacked top half of the Eastern Conference, which features a couple of teams the Sixers have not shown they are capable of beating. It’s difficult to see them winning four out of seven against a full-strength Raptors or Celtics team because they have not managed even half of that at any point over the last couple of regular seasons. Another part of it is due to the sense that the Sixers’ star-studded starting five has not looked studded enough to compensate for the 40-or-so minutes each night they will need to rely on their bench.

But neither of those factors takes into consideration an upside that: 1) did not exist last year at this time; and 2) would not exist if the Sixers were entering the postseason with a rotation similar to the one they featured last year.

This year they have an X-factor, and his name is Jimmy Butler.

The general consensus seems to be that, in hindsight, the Sixers might have been better off had they stuck with Dario Saric and Robert Covington, players they traded for Butler, especially now that Tobias Harris has arrived. It’s a valid viewpoint, and the sort of thing about which reasonable minds can disagree. But there are two strong counters to it, and both involve Butler. First, as general manager Elton Brand noted the other day, he gives the Sixers a type of player that neither Covington nor Saric was, and it happens to be the sort of player who is equipped to excel in the sorts of playoff situations where Covington/Saric found themselves stifled last year. Second, while Butler might not have played like a superstar over the last few months of the regular season, the Sixers have still been plenty good with him.

When Butler has been on the court this season, the Sixers have outscored their opponents by an average of 115.4 points per 100 possessions to 109.1. When he has been off of it, they’ve essentially played even at 110.7-110.6. In other words, the Sixers have outscored opponents by an additional 6.2 points per 100 possessions when Butler is on the court versus when he is off it. Only Joel Embiid has a bigger split. As you can see in the table below, Butler’s mark is significantly better than those of Simmons and Harris.

Granted, on/off splits only tell you so much, given how many other variables are involved. Case in point: The Sixers have been a much better defensive team with JJ Redick on the court than when he is off it, more so than any other player. But Redick has also played the vast amount of his minutes paired with Embiid, which taints the sample to a point of near-irrelevance.

At the very least, though, the splits do suggest that Butler has had a bigger impact on the Sixers’ performance than a lot of people give him credit for. There’s no doubt that there have been long stretches of the season when he has looked out of sync with the rest of the offense. The question of his long-term fit with Simmons and Embiid is a valid one. Yet for all of the supposed growing pains, the fact remains that the numbers say the Sixers have scored at a darn good rate when he has been on the court.

Looking ahead, the biggest unknown regarding Butler is what to expect out of him on the defensive end. He arrived in Philly with the reputation of being one of the best defenders in the league. I don’t think it is a controversial statement to say that we have yet to see that player emerge. At the same time, we have seen flashes, particularly in late-game situations when the Sixers need a stop.

It’s possible that Butler was simply overrated all along, or that the years are starting to catch up with him. It’s also possible that he has been in this league long enough to understand his body and the flow of the regular season and the extent of effort needed to achieve his desired ends while at the same time optimizing himself for the part of the schedule that actually matters.

If that’s the case, the fact that the Sixers finished as the three-seed is a testament to the validity of that strategy. Could they have overtaken the Raptors or the Bucks had he locked down a little more? It’s possible, but that’s a lot of games to make up, and, regardless of Butler, there’s a strong argument to make that both teams were simply better at regular-season basketball, given the extent of their depth.

Moving forward, the question that matters is which team, and which players, are the best at postseason basketball. Covington was a good defender, but he was also benched against the Celtics last spring. Every move the Sixers made this season was with that series in mind.

In the end, it comes down to how much benefit of the doubt you are willing to extend to Butler. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the playoffs will mark the arrival of that tenacious, on-the-ball defender we’ve heard so much about. If that’s the case, and we also get four quarters of Jimmy Buckets the Closer on the offensive end of the court, the Sixers will be a dramatically better team this postseason than they were for the first 82 games of the year.

It’s a big “if,” and there’s not guarantee even that will be enough. But it’s also the biggest reason the Sixers have a much higher upside than they would have had they returned to the postseason with the same rotation as last year.