Home teams in CAPS
Eagles (-3) over BUCS: Nick Foles at QB? Carson Wentz? How about my main dude, NELSON AGHOLOR! Everyone who watched kinda squirmed on the couch, or at the Linc, watching Foles complete only 19 of 34 for 117 yards, throw an INT, and get sacked twice. Uglified. Looks like Wentz is still at least a few weeks away, so why not Nelson A. at QB? Just sayin'. Foles had a QBR of 26.2 and a rating of 50.7, while Agholor had a QBR of 100, with a 118.8 rating. Like the fact that the Green Birds have had the extra rest. Like the fact that the Eagles have covered 12 of the last 15 outside of the NFC East. And if you're thinking that Tampa Bay QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is gonna hit 21 of 28 for 417 yards against Jim Schwartz's D, stop puffing on that medical marijuana. Seeing the Birds on top, 27-20.
SAINTS (-9) over Browns: Have never seen a city celebrate a TIE game like Cleveland did Sunday. But, after 0-16 last season and 1-15 in 2016, a TIE is about as good as it gets in the Land. It has been 624 days since the Brownies won a game, and their 1-24 mark on the road the last three seasons does not scream W. And if you can guess the last Cleveland QB to post a win, I got you for a Pink's hot dog next time you're in Vegas. What does scream at me is New Orleans' 8-1 record inside the dome last season and the work Drew Brees put in Sunday. How about 37 of 45 for 439 yards, 3 TDs, and no INTs. This is my BEST BET BABY!!!
Dolphins (+3) over JETS: You would think Sam Darnold is the second coming of Joe Willie Namath. C'mon now. Sure the kid got off to a fabulous start against the Lions, but this Miami team ain't terrible. Ryan Tannehill was pretty sharp against the Titans, completing 20 of 28, and he should be able to keep the Fish swimming upstream to their second W.
RAMS (-12.5) over Cards: Not thrilled about laying double digits in the NFL, but in this spot, my normal stress ball is gone. Why? Look back at last year's results, and it's very much an L.A. story. The Rams (-3) bageled Arizona in London, 33-0, and then rolled to an easy 32-16 victory as a 7.5 point favorite in Phoenix. And if you look back at the Rams home opener last season, a 46-9 W against Indy, you see why the dozen and a hook does not faze me.
JAGUARS (+2) over Patriots: Looks like the number will be coming down, but still like Jacksonville in this REVENGE spot. The Jags came within four points of a ticket to the Super Bowl, but still covered the +7.5-point spread in a 24-20 loss AT New England. Gotta give Doug Marrone a ton of props for taking Jax from 3-13 in the last year under Gus Bradley to 12-7 in his first campaign. Even if the line comes down to -1 or pick 'em, you KNOW we're gonna throw the Jags in a teaser.
Chiefs (+4.5) over STEELERS: This line is strictly reputation, because Pittsburgh looks kinda ugly. REALLY like Kaycee QB Patrick Mahomes, and the only reason we're not making this a stronger play is because it's only his third NFL start.
Giants (+3) over COWBOYS: Shoot all the poison arrows you have in your quiver at Eli Manning, but he will work his old magic against a Dallas squad that has covered only three of its last nine at Jerry World.
Colts (+6) over WASHINGTON: Expecting Andrew Luck to find his first W since the operation, and if not, certainly a cover.
FALCONS (-5.5) over Panthers: Atlanta is working on a 3-0 perfecto at home against Carolina, straight up and against the spread.
Vikings (NL) over PACKERS: Obviously cannot make a call till we know the status of Mr. Discount Double Check. Total hall pass.
Chargers (-7) over BILLS: Lean to San Diego/L.A., but not thrilled about laying a TD. Keep it real light.
Texans (-1.5) over TITANS: Still waiting on the status of Marcus Mariota. If he plays, Texans light. If it's Blaine Gabbert, go heavy Houston.
Lions (+6) over 49ERS: We love Jimmy G., but expecting a bounce back for Matthew Stafford and the Motown Mob.
Raiders (+6) over BRONCOS: Chucky Gruden's squad should be able to hang with a Denver team that has covered only five of the last 21.
BEARS (-3) over Seahawks (Mon.): Seattle is trending down, and this could be Pete Carroll's first losing season since 2011.
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