Like always, race will factor into mayoral election

This year, Philadelphia voters will select a successor to Mayor Nutter, and, as in every election since 1971, race will be a profoundly important factor in the outcome. Blacks are expected to constitute 50 percent of registered Democratic voters in Philadelphia this year, and the next mayor will be the candidate who is best able to navigate the city's racial dynamics. Though each candidate is unlikely to refer to his or her race directly, it will determine who wins.

Frank L. Rizzo's election in 1971 was the first time that race played a significant role in a mayoral election. Before that, the black community was largely complacent and not well organized. Rizzo, a former police commissioner, had a reputation as a no-nonsense cop who ran on a "law and order" platform. His rise coincided with the proliferation of race riots and black political empowerment during the late 1960s and early 1970s, and many whites supported Rizzo because they believed that he would keep blacks "in their place." His campaign theme, "Rizzo Means Business," was a thinly veiled appeal to race. Rizzo's eight years as mayor galvanized black voters and accelerated the nascent black political movement that influenced all future elections.

W. Wilson Goode, the city's first black mayor, defeated Rizzo in the Democratic primary in 1983 with overwhelming black support. After Goode's two terms, two African Americans split the black vote in the 1991 primary, allowing Ed Rendell to win. Rendell's campaign had focused on the city's financial distress and its national image, rather than personal criticisms of Goode, who was still popular in the black community.

John F. Street was City Council president during Rendell's two terms, but during his early years in office he had developed a reputation as an angry black militant. Although white voters were apprehensive about him, Street narrowly won a primary that included two other black candidates and a well-financed white candidate who hoped to benefit from a divided black vote. Street benefited from an endorsement by Rendell, who had high approval ratings among black and white voters. Still, the general election was close, with many white Democrats crossing party lines to vote for Republican Sam Katz.

During his first term, Street alienated white voters by declaring that "the brothers and sisters are in charge" of the city. Also, the FBI had placed a bug in his office as part of a corruption investigation. Though several of the mayor's acquaintances would later be incarcerated, during Street's reelection campaign he and his allies skillfully used the bug, claiming that the investigation was a part of a national conspiracy by the Republican Party to undermine black elected officials and suppress black voter turnout.

In 2007, Michael Nutter had to defeat two other black and two white candidates in the primary. The widely shared expectation was that the next mayor would be African American, and the only question was which candidate would appeal to both black and white voters. Nutter's campaign focused on corruption and Street's personality, with ads proclaiming: "I am not John Street." They had the effect of making government reform an issue, while defining Nutter as an acceptable black alternative to the racially polarizing Street. Nutter won the primary and general elections and was reelected over token opposition in 2011.

Unlike the successors to Rizzo and Street, this year's candidates will not be campaigning against the failures of a racially polarizing incumbent. However, the racial dynamic, animated by two of the candidates' records, will dominate political strategy. The challenge is how to get a large percentage of the black vote.

The three announced Democratic candidates thus far are former District Attorney Lynne M. Abraham (white), former City Solicitor Ken Trujillo (Latino), and State Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams (black). Abraham has high name recognition because of her several citywide elections, but Williams, because he is the only black candidate, is arguably the front-runner. However, his past support of charter schools is problematic. Abraham would need significant black votes to win, but her failure to prosecute police officers for misconduct when she was district attorney could make her a tough sell. It remains to be seen whether Trujillo can appeal to black and white voters as a compromise candidate. Former City Solicitor Nelson Diaz (Latino) and Nutter's former press secretary, Doug Oliver (black), are expected to announce their candidacies soon. Neither is likely to raise sufficient campaign funds to be a factor.

If Council President Darrell L. Clarke enters the race, the primary would be analogous to Rendell's run against two black opponents in 1991, or Street's primary win over two black and one white opponent. A four-way primary this year would improve Abraham's chances of success, especially if she can appeal to a cross-section of blacks, progressives, blue-collar whites, and women.

Racial dynamics in mayoral elections are not unique to Philadelphia. But the quality of mayoral leadership that results has varied, revealing the best and worst of democracy in urban politics.