Knox takes the lead in primary, poll shows

If anybody needed further proof that the tube rules politics: The latest Keystone Poll of the Democratic mayoral primary yesterday found good news for the two candidates who've advertised most - millionaire Tom Knox and U.S. Rep. Bob Brady.

Knox, a former insurance executive, claimed the lead with 24 percent. And Brady showed the most growth compared with Keystone's January survey, jumping 8 percentage points into a statistical tie for second place with 16 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah, the front-runner in a variety of polls for more than a year, declined 9 percentage points since January, to 17 percent.

Pollster G. Terry Madonna of Franklin and Marshall College and other analysts say the reason for Fattah's dip is simple: He is the only candidate who has run no TV ads.

Knox has spent about $4.9 million of his own money since December on TV time, while Brady has spent about $1 million in the last two months.

"It's all about the TV," Madonna said. "He [Fattah] is just being squeezed by these others who are eroding his earlier support, and he's not had a message on television to counter."

Former Councilman Michael A. Nutter has been advertising heavily for the last two weeks, while State Rep. Dwight Evans has been running a small but steady stream of ads for the last six weeks.

Nutter was at 12 percent in the Keystone Poll, while Evans had 10 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

"The poll is probably a fairly good snapshot of where things stand at this moment," Fattah said yesterday. "We are not dissuaded," he added, smiling and shoving both hands into his pockets. "I've won a few elections in my time."

While Knox appears to be winning the air war, veterans of Philadelphia elections wonder if the neophyte will be able to motivate and turn out supporters on election day. Fattah is banking on his field organization.

He said he always planned to wait to advertise. "It's important to know when undecided voters make up their mind," Fattah said. A fund-raising report his campaign filed Tuesday showed he had just $600,000 on hand.

Knox has been free to spend his own millions while the others labor under fund-raising caps.

Twenty percent of respondents said they were undecided, with critical televised debates coming up in the next few weeks and what is sure to be an increased volume of advertising.

"There's still a lot of volatility left in the race," Madonna said, though he added that the pressure will mount on Nutter and Evans to "make their move."

Brady was jubilant at a midday anti-violence rally with several hundred supporters, enjoying the good poll news after two weeks of bad publicity stemming from a challenge to his right to be on the ballot for omitting financial-disclosure information.

"We're going to get this done, old-time politics, takin' it to the streets," Brady told the crowd.

The poll found 79 percent of respondents had heard of the challenge to Brady for neglecting to disclose his city and carpenters' union pensions - 36 percent of those thought the longtime chairman of the Democratic Party should be removed from the ballot, while 45 percent did not.

The Keystone Poll results are based on telephone interviews with 364 registered Democrats, conducted between March 28 and Tuesday.

Pollsters found a high degree of interest in the race among Democrats, with 85 percent saying they had seen TV ads for the candidates. Fifty-three percent said they remembered Knox's ads the most, by far the highest recognition rate.

Mimi Evans said she was "blown away" by Knox's first ad, which told how he grew up poor and sent his Navy pay home to his mother.

"He's running for all the mothers, to try to make a change in this city with the corruption and the drugs and violence," said Evans, 51, of South Philadelphia. "He inspired me, you know."

She now volunteers in Knox's neighborhood campaign office.