What do Stu’s Stars say about the mayoral primary? | Stu Bykofsky

For your prognosticating pleasure, say hello to Stu’s Stars.

Stu’s what?

Organized a decade ago in the Daily News, Stu’s Stars is a panel of a half dozen political insiders and analysts, Republican and Democrat, male and female, black and white. To promote frankness, I guarantee them anonymity — even from one another. As in the movie Reservoir Dogs, they get colors instead of names. It is not scientific. Wagering is discouraged.

This time around, the first question was about predicted turnout in the May 21 Democratic primary — it had been 27 percent of registered voters in the 2015 primary that led to Jim Kenney’s victory in the general election. With a 7-1 registration advantage, Democrats own Philly the way Mummers own golden slippers, and they have not lost a mayoral election since Noah built his ark.

Our democracy is so tepid that 27 percent was considered a decent turnout as Kenney faced five challengers and walked away with a majority. He ran as a progressive, and we’ll return to that in a minute.

Of Stu’s Stars, only Green and Orange think turnout will fall below 2015. Brown was the most optimistic, predicting a turnout in the mid-40s because of “so many people running” for City Council and other posts.

As of Thursday, only Kenney and former City Controller Alan Butkovitz had declared as mayoral candidates. State Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams, who finished a weak second in 2015, reportedly was readying his petitions.

Very intriguing is a “what if” factor mentioned by a couple of Stars: What if Councilman Allan Domb runs?

Not having that answer put Stu’s Stars at a disadvantage, having to complete a jigsaw puzzle with a couple of pieces missing, but that makes it interesting. They agree it’s Kenney’s race to lose. (The deadline for candidates to file is Tuesday.)

Will Domb move to take the mayor’s chair?

“I think he will run,” says Blue.

“If Allan Domb runs, it means he will self-finance and spend several million dollars, and if that happens, all bets are off,” says Orange, who sees Domb as a “game-changer.”

Domb would be a strong challenger and a disrupter, but he’s not running, Brown says with certainty.

“Before the Johnny Dougherty indictment, Kenney was invulnerable,” says Black.

Is Kenney now vulnerable to attack, no matter how many challengers?

Yes, says Brown, and the Number 1 reason is poverty.

What do the others think is the main issue?

Blue: “Poverty and affordable housing and gentrification.”

Black: “Crime is the issue. Homicides are up. We have more than New York City. Think about that.”

Green: Taxes — and “property tax is the most hated tax.”

Orange says, “The mayor is most vulnerable in a multicandidate race with one strong white candidate and an African American,” even though splitting the opposition usually favors the incumbent.

“It’s a referendum on the relationship between City Hall and organized labor,” says Purple, suggesting possible corruption. “I don’t think it matters in Philly. It doesn’t play the way you would think.”

That brings to mind Lincoln Steffens’ immortal line that Philadelphia is corrupt and contented. He wrote that in 1903, and sometimes it seems not much has changed.

Some believe the only thing that will stop Kenney is something implicating him in the Dougherty/Bobby Henon scandal.

None of Stu’s Stars believes that the soda tax, although unpopular, will weigh heavily on the outcome. The consensus believes that soda interests will not fund two mayoral candidates, and maybe not even one.

Kenney won election as a progressive, and two years later Larry Krasner became DA and Rebecca Rhynhart defeated Butkovitz for controller, both running as progressives. Has Philadelphia been captured by progressives?

The majority of voters consider themselves progressive, says Orange, and “only 25 to 30 percent say they are conservative.”

Not so fast, says Purple. “The average Philadelphian is not as progressive as the election shows.” Rhynhart “is pragmatic, a fiscal conservative,” says Purple.

Philly is a little bit progressive, says Brown, “but not a lot, because Krasner bought that election,” while Butkovitz took Rhynhart for granted.

Kenney is running as the progressive; his opponents will be antiestablishment candidates, most of the Stars say.

Four more years? Underdogs cheer? It might be in the Stars.