Pennsylvania and a national poll: warning signs for Dems? | John Baer

As the already-large and diverse field of Democrats for president continues to grow, so do signals that the party’s leftward pull is pulling it in the wrong direction.

I cite as the most recent evidence, a telling piece in Monday’s New York Times focused on the Keystone State, and findings in an NBC/Wall Street Journal Survey released Sunday on what Democratic voters want.

First the Times piece.

It notes that Pennsylvania, after backing Donald Trump in 2016, last year rejected two Trumpian candidates, former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta for Senate and former State Sen. Scott Wagner for governor.

Instead, incumbent Democrats Bob Casey and Tom Wolf walked to reelection.

In addition, in last year’s nationally watched special election for a southwestern Pennsylvania congressional seat in what had been 2016 Trump country, Democrat Conor Lamb’s win over Republican Rick Saccone suggested a change in the state’s political weather.

But now, all that seems more the result of individual candidates than state voters flipping to left-leaning politics, at least not the kind that seems to be generating the most energy among the Democratic Party at large.

The headline in the Times print edition reads: “In Pennsylvania, Skewing Left May Sap Momentum of 2018.”

The piece quotes former national Democratic chairman and former Gov. Ed Rendell suggesting the rising ideology in his party could prove risky in his home state.

“The more we have presidential candidates or newly elected congresspeople talking about the Green New Deal, talking about `Medicare for all,’ talking about socialism, the more that plays into the Trump campaign’s hands,” Rendell said.

He’s right.

Neil Newhouse, of the mega-GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, told me recent polling suggests Trump warning against a shift to socialism “could well help frame the 2020 election.”

And Trump, in his two-hour weekend speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, went right at the Green New Deal.

“When I look at what’s happening on the other side, I encourage it,” he said, while ridiculing the Green New Deal as “No planes. No energy. When the wind stops blowing, that’s the end of your electric.”

Rendell’s sentiment also mirrors what I wrote in a column last week based on interviews with state political experts.

They suggested former Vice President Joe Biden, if he’s in, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (and, this week, you can add Narberth native and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper) are best suited to carry the state in a primary and general election rather than candidates pushing more leftist views.

Then there are findings of the new NBC/WSJ survey.

What caught my eye was a question asked only of Democratic primary voters: “In selecting a presidential nominee for the Democratic Party, which of the following is the most important to you?”

The choices? A candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Or a candidate who comes closest to your views on issues.

Democrats questioned chose the latter by a margin of 56-40.

This struck me as problematic for the party. It’s personal adherence to ideology. It’s potentially picking views over victory. It hints at the sort of Democratic-leaning stay-home option that helped Trump win in 2016.

The GOP is more tribal. When the NBC/WSJ poll asked Republican primary voters if they’d like to see a primary challenge to Trump, 59 percent said no.

Clearly, Democratic candidates are right to address climate change, health care, education, economic inequality, and more.

But often the way such issues are presented — including on the environment and reparations for African Americans and Native Americans — is just not realistic. They can create discussions, not win elections.

Especially in Pennsylvania, which is something of a mini-America: Blue urban areas at either end, vast red areas in the middle. In the last 12 presidential contests, it voted for the winner 10 times.

It’s sure to be key in 2020. Trump won here by 44,292 votes (out of more than five million cast). Few expected it. Few expect a repeat. But that could depend entirely on who’s challenging Trump, because signs suggest the state’s no lock for just any Democrat.