The division round is upon us, and Vegas Vic offers his selections for the games.
Home teams in CAPS.
Here we go again.
Now that I totally blew the pick last week against the Bears, people have been sending me money in order to NOT pick the Birds. Feeling that if I jump on the Green now, it will destroy the run to the Super Bowl. Of course, any and all money will go to charity. And of course, NO ONE has sent any money yet.
On to numbers, and if you want, there’s a stat or trend for almost anything if you dive deep enough. For example, underdogs have been KILLING it in the playoffs, covering 14 of the last 15. And dogs of 7 points or more are 16-8-2 ATS since 2006 in the division round. However, and there’s ALWAYS a however. After a wild card upset, like last week, teams own an UGLY 9-38 straight up record, and only 18-29 against the spread. So, pick your poison. My poison is gonna be New Orleans. You knew that was coming right. Why? One reason, just like the argument we made in the Clemson pick, the QB. Not bashing Nick Foles, and giving the Birds D some love, but that was against Mitch Trubisky. Now, they gotta play Drew Brees again. The last time the Eagles flew to New Orleans, Brees was brilliant, hitting on 22 of 30 for 363 yards, 4 TDs and NO INT’s. Tell me, are the Birds 41 points better than they were eight weeks ago? They’re better sure, but even if you think they are 21 points better, it’s still Brees by 20. Better effort, but still picking Saints by a dime, 31-21.
Is it my imagination or does Indianapolis keep getting better each week?
Short answer, of course. The Colts started the season at 1-5, and have come roaring into the playoffs with 10 wins in their last 11 games, 7-3-1 against the spread. We talked a bunch about Andrew Luck and his brilliance, but the reason Indy is crushing it is, BALANCE! The rushing game has been amazing, led by Marlon Mack who gobbled up 148 yards last week. And if you’re a numbers freak, try these on for size. Since Andy Reid took over in 2013, the Chiefs have NOT won at home in the playoffs. Lost to the Steelers in 2016, 18-16 as a -2.5 points favorite, and 22-21 to Tennessee last year as a -9 point fav. Naturally, they didn’t have the electric rookie, Patrick Mahomes, but still, not a great showing. Kaycee is always tough at home, but the Horseshoes look like a delicious dog again this week, and, still feeling (Andrew) LUCKy, this is my BEST BET!
Wound up taking +2.5 last week with Seattle, and cashed a ticket. WHEW! Going against Dallas one more time, and laying a TD, because the Cowboys on the road are not nearly as good as the 'Boys at home. How about 8-1 at Jerry World and only 2-6 with a suitcase.
If you’re interested in a first half wager, how about Dallas averaging a league-low 5.8 1st half points on the road. How about allowing 48.1 more rushing yards per game on the road. How about averaging 7.5 fewer points on the road. And how about Dak Prescott’s QB rating on the road which was 23.9 points lower than his work in Dallas. Did a deep dive and noticed that Sean McVay, with more than a week to prepare is DANGEROUS. Last season, when the Rams came off the bye week, they CRUSHED the N.Y. Giants 51-17. They opened this season with a 33-13 win at Oakland. And after the bye week this season, they came back to whip Detroit, 30-16. Still not sure about Dak’s knee, so gonna keep this a medium to light play.
Made fun of L.A. Chargers QB Philip Rivers last week and he went out and beat my brains in. Not gonna do that again. And the reason is, PERFECTO. The Lightning Bolts have been RIDONKULOUS on the road, winning eight straight since the middle of October, with a MONEY-MAKING 7-1 record against the spread. And they have not played cupcakes, like another team we’re gonna talk about.