Hot Stove

Every year, we assume that the Phillies' payroll will stop expanding, and every year we watch it soar to new heights.

As usual, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. was noncommittal when asked about his budget for 2011, saying it will likely "be similar," without denying the possibility of an increase. But it is hard to imagine the payroll expanding much beyond the roughly $175 million at which it finished at the end of the 2011 season. So when free agency begins on Thursday, Amaro likely will have about $40 million to fill the open spots on his roster.

In most walks of life, finding the proper way to spend $40 million would not be considered a challenge. But for a GM looking to solidify a roster that contains several holes, it could be the difference between a World Series berth and another premature exit.

So let's take a look at the pressing questions:

1 Does Amaro really have $40 million to spend?

It's a pretty good estimate. The Phillies have about $109 million guaranteed to nine players for 2012. If you project a $10 million salary for Hunter Pence and a $15 million salary for Cole Hamels, both of whom will be eligible for arbitration if the Phillies do not re-sign them beforehand, the total money committed rises to $134 million. Factor in the normal salaries for Vance Worley, John Mayberry Jr. and Antonio Bastardo, and you have another $1.3 million. If $175 million is your projected Opening Day payroll, Amaro has about $40 million to spend on 11 roster spots.

2 What positions can be filled on the cheap?

You can start in the bullpen. Bastardo developed into a dominant setup man last year. He also has the ability to close. Jose Contreras is one of the nine players under contract for next year, but he is coming off elbow surgery. You have to figure that the Phillies will look for at least two veteran arms. Along with Bastardo and whatever Contreras ends up contributing, that should be enough to fill out the rest of the bullpen with players at or near the veteran minimum salary: Mike Stutes, David Herndon, Joe Savery, Justin De Fratus, Michael Schwimer all will get looks at those spots, although Stutes and Herndon would be the favorites heading into spring training.

Add in utility man Michael Martinez, who makes close to the veteran minimum, and you are down to seven roster spots to fill this offseason. Assuming the Phillies sign a backup catcher and pay him the same as they paid Brian Schneider ($1.15 million), they are down to six empty spots with a little more than $37 million to spend.

3 How will the Phillies prioritize those six spots?

A lot depends on shortstop. The feeling here is that if the Phillies and Jimmy Rollins reach an agreement, the contract will eat up about $8 million to $10 million of this year's payroll. Split the difference and call it $9 million, although that number could drop with a signing bonus that is paid on next year's books. If Rollins does not sign, look for the Phillies to find a cheap veteran option, such as the Braves' Alex Gonzalez, and then put the rest of the money they would have paid Rollins into depth at leftfield and third base. The feeling here is that the Phillies have the ability to make two high-profile signings with the aforementioned $37 million for six spots.

Two potential combinations:

* $9 million for Rollins, $11 million for a closer, $7 million for rotation/bullpen depth (could be two veteran relievers, one of whom can provide rotation depth, perhaps Kyle Kendrick), $8 million for third base/outfield depth (two players total)

* $11 million for a closer, $3 million for a veteran shortstop, $14 million for a significant upgrade at leftfield or third base, $7 million for rotation/bullpen depth (two players), $2 million for outfield/infield depth.

4 What does the bullpen market look like?

The Phillies view their bullpen as a priority, but this market is one of the most difficult to forecast on a yearly basis. Perhaps more than any other position, the value of contracts depends heavily on the major players in the market. Last January, the Yankees signed Rafael Soriano to a 3-year, $35 million contract, making him the highest-paid reliever of the offseason. But the Yankees are one of the few teams who have that kind of money to spend. You probably can take Brian Cashman out of this year's market, since Soriano, Mariano Rivera, David Robertson and the rest of the Yankees' stalwart bullpen will return in 2012. The Red Sox and the Phillies, on the other hand, both have potential needs at the back end of the bullpen. If the Cardinals re-sign slugger Albert Pujols, it would be hard to see them deciding to spend $10 million-plus per year on a bullpen piece. But the Rangers certainly could factor into the mix.

The three pitchers on the market who are likely to command significant multiyear deals are the Phillies' Ryan Madson, Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon and former Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez.

Madson and Papelbon will be 31 next season, putting them at the same age as Soriano when he signed with the Yankees. Rodriguez is a year younger. All three pitchers have strong, consistent track records. Rodriguez wore out his welcome in New York, which could affect his ultimate price tag. But as long as three big-payroll teams are willing to spend Soriano-type money, all three should have a decent shot at landing a player for at least 3 years and $30 million.

Beyond those three, a veteran such as Francisco Cordero might make sense at the right price. Although his strikeout rate has dropped precipitously over the last 3 years, it has been accompanied by a rise in his groundball rate. Cordero, who will turn 37 in May, averaged 39 saves with a 2.84 ERA, 6.8 strikeouts-per-nine and 3.8 walks-per-nine from 2009-11. Even if the Phillies decide to pay big money for a closer, they might consider Cordero if he is willing to pitch in a setup role on a modest 1- or 2-year deal. Although he occasionally struggles with his command, he has never given up a lot of home runs. His fastball sat around 93 this season, a couple of notches down from where it was 2 years ago. But he has started to rely more on a changeup and curveball, in addition to his slider.

Cordero probably carries less risk than Joe Nathan, who gave up a lot of home runs this season and has always been more of a fly-ball pitcher. His fastball velocity has dropped, and, along with it, his swing-and-miss rate. Nathan, who will be 37 next season, might be worth a flier at a bargain-basement price. But he certainly is not a guy around whom a team such as the Phillies will want to base its offseason bullpen strategy. Fernando Rodney and Juan Cruz walk too many batters. As for depth, righty Todd Coffey and lefty Javier Lopez could be fits. And you can't rule out a return by Brad Lidge.

5 What types of "significant upgrades" at third base and leftfield are out there?

Not many, but one name to keep your eye on is Aramis Ramirez. The veteran third baseman might not even hit the free-agent market - he has expressed a desire to retire with the Cubs, although he has also said he wants to play for a contending team. Ramirez would bring a combination of contact and power that is largely missing from the lineup. At the same time, he also will turn 34 next season. Given his track record, he could be looking for a deal of at least 3 years. Signing him would give the Phillies the ability to use Placido Polanco at second base and Chase Utley at first if Ryan Howard misses time while recovering from his Achilles' surgery. It also would give the Phillies a reliable contact bat to cycle into second and third base when Howard is healthy. The Phillies also could look to deal for a player such as Angels infielder Alberto Callaspo, although they probably do not have the prospects it would take to land a player of greater stature.

As for the outfield, such veterans as Carlos Beltran, Josh Willingham, Michael Cuddyer and Ryan Ludwick highlight the list of free agents.