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Stuart Holden: United States is 'undoubtably the favorite, and should win' CONCACAF Gold Cup

The Fox Sports analyst offers his analysis of what we'll see in the tournament's quarterfinals and beyond.

The United States men’s national soccer team’s Omar Gonzalez (center), Kellyn Acosta (left) and Michael Bradley (right) at a practice Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s CONCACAF Gold Cup quarterfinal game against El Salvador at Lincoln Financial Field.
The United States men’s national soccer team’s Omar Gonzalez (center), Kellyn Acosta (left) and Michael Bradley (right) at a practice Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s CONCACAF Gold Cup quarterfinal game against El Salvador at Lincoln Financial Field.Read moreMatt Rourke/AP

Fox Sports analyst Stuart Holden will call Wednesday's U.S.-El Salvador CONCACAF Gold Cup game at Lincoln Financial Field, alongside John Strong, Landon Donovan and Jenny Taft.

It's been a busy summer for Holden, a former U.S. national team player who has quickly ascended through the ranks of American soccer broadcasters. He was in Russia for the Confederations Cup a few weeks ago, and barely had time to settle down upon returning before he was off to the Gold Cup.

Holden had some time to spare after getting to Philadelphia, though. So we met for lunch in Old City on Tuesday, and chatted about about what he expects to see in the tournament's knockout stages.

I'll ask you the big question first. Is the United States now the favorite to win this thing?

Yeah. I mean, Mexico with [coach Juan Carlos] Osorio opting to go with a younger team — I still don't think they've played particularly well in this tournament. You could argue the same for the United States.

But now you're mixing some of these up-and-coming fringe players with the experienced guys. I think you'll see those guys that maybe struggled in parts of the group stages, they'll get a lift from playing with guys like Michael Bradley and Jozy [Altidore] and Clint [Dempsey].

I think the U.S. is undoubtedly the favorite, and should win this, to be honest.

I think everyone expected Tim Howard, Altidore, Bradley and Darlington Nagbe to be called in. I'm not sure everyone expected Clint Dempsey to be called in. Did you?

I think that's fair to say. I think it's a really interesting time for Clint Dempsey, this next year in his career. Because he's coming up to a option in Seattle [on his contract, and it's the club's choice], so we'll see what happens there with him contractually.

And if he stays there, what type of form he's in, what role he is going to play with this team. Because I don't think he's an automatic starter under Bruce Arena now.

If you're looking at two forwards, I think it's Jozy and Bobby [Wood], and then I think Clint fits certain games and certain roles. And it's going to be up to how he handles that going forward. I think he'll handle it well.

I've been on teams with him for a long time — he is a team guy, but he is an ultimate competitor. He's going to want to play every single minute, and I think it's just going to be up to him to recognize and figure out a defined role under Bruce. I think that's what Bruce Arena does best: he defines roles well.

So if he's bringing Clint Dempsey into this tournament, I imagine Clint is going to play, and I imagine he is going to want to score goals and beat Landon [Donovan]'s record.

[Dempsey is one goal away from tying the all-time U.S. national team scoring mark. Donovan recorded 57, Dempsey has 56.]

Speaking of Sounders players, what do you think Jordan Morris' role will be for the rest of the Gold Cup? From where I sit at least, Dom Dwyer has made his impression by scoring in two of his three national team appearances to date. He's officially on the depth chart, including for the World Cup next year.

Now that he's home, Morris might be the first guy off the bench for the rest of that tournament. Is that a fair view of the landscape? 

If you're looking at the World Cup, you take four forwards. Bobby and Jozy are locks. I think Clint's number three there. So that means you have Dom Dwyer, Juan Agudelo, Jordan Morris, Aron Jóhannsson, Terrence Boyd, whoever you could kind of fill out the list with. Who's going to be that fourth striker?

We've seen in World Cups in the past, that fourth striker spot is not typically defined until — even the third one, you could say — the months leading into the World Cup. In 2010, I remember it was Herculez Gómez and Edson Buddle who were scoring goals left and right, Herc in Mexico and Edson in MLS. Those were the two strikers that went along with Robbie Findley.

Robbie Findley. What a name that is too.

Crazy to think about when you throw some of those names out there.

Jordan, from what I've heard, has shown really well in training. People say he's in a sophomore slump in MLS — that might be, but then you come into national team camp and you impress Bruce Arena, and you score goals.

If that's the job that's asked of you, then I think right now, I would actually have Jordan Morris — if I was a betting man — ahead of Dom Dwyer in that slot to go as the No. 4. And ahead of Juan Agudelo, because I think Jordan gives you something different.

He can run in behind, he's a real team guy, he's not going to cause you any grief off the field. I think you know what you get from him every single day in training.

So I think for him, going into the knockouts now, it's: when called upon, make an impact. If it's off the bench, which it more than likely will be — especially in the quarterfinal — make an impact every time you get on the field. And I think you can get the trust in that moment.

What do you expect out of Darlington Nagbe? Is he going to be the central playmaker on this squad? He does a lot of things in Portland, but he hasn't done that specifically for a while.

To be honest, I expected to see Darlington Nagbe in the group stages. Under Bruce Arena, it's interesting — he seems to have trusted him. He's played him in some big moments, some big games. He almost seems a lock starting as one of those outside midfield positions right now, with Fabian Johnson the other.

So it's going to be for Nagbe, in this tournament, to become more of a leader, I think on the field. I'm not so worried about production — I'd love to see him add that. But we always seem to say that about Darlington Nagbe: "If he can start to add the goals and assists." I think he's more of a connector.

I just want him to be a leader on the field, and just be consistent. I think if he's consistent, he should be a starter on this team every single game.

Let's talk about the other games, starting with Costa Rica-Panama, the first quarterfinal on Wednesday. I'm very excited about it, because there are some really interesting players in that game. What do you see happening?

Panama are tough, man. We talk about Costa Rica a lot as being the No. 3 team in the region, but you look at the results that Panama have had against the United States, I think they just have a lot of consistency. Going back in the years with [Gabriel] Gómez, [Aníbal] Godoy, and [Gabriel] Torres.

They're missing two of their stars [Ricardo Ávila and Luis Tejada] — more than two, actually, if you include Román Torres, and [Jaime] Penedo in goal.

I look at this Panamanian team and I want to give them an edge against Costa Rica, because I think Costa Rica brought a stronger group, but I think it's a Panamanian team that want another shot against the United States in the semifinals. And [the U.S.] played Panama in the final in 2013, and they knocked out Mexico in that tournament.

So in knockout stages of these competitions, they seem to do well. I think I'm going to give them an edge in this one against Costa Rica.

How big is it that Costa Rica star Joel Campbell is out after  in the group stage game against Canada?

Massive. It's a terrible shame for him — he's going to miss six months. This is a guy who a year ago, man, we were watching him light it up. He went back to Arsenal, he was playing at Arsenal [after] he had been on loan to all these different places. So I think it's a shame for a player of his ability.

And it obviously hurts Costa Rica in a big way, because his running in and getting on the end of service from a guy like Bryan Ruíz is their most dangerous weapon.

In my column previewing Wednesday's games, I picked some players to watch on Costa Rica, Panama and El Salvador who might be good fits in Major League Soccer. I especially wanted to highlight under-the-radar guys who maybe the fans don't know about so much.

Put your general manager hat on for a minute and tell me who you'd look at with an eye on potentially signing.

I've been really intrigued by Ismael Díaz from Panama. He was on Porto B [the reserve team of the Portuguese powerhouse], he's played at striker, he's scored one in this tournament. He's got a little something. He likes to take guys on. He's out of contract, actually, so I would imagine that he's one that's on coaches' radars.

I've read that Bryan Ruíz is an option [potentially coming on the market]. You take him if you're a MLS team, because he's a game-changer, he can open stuff up. I played against him when he was at Fulham. A very talented player, finds the pockets well. He's not so much of an unknown quantity as some of these other guys.

But I think the Panamanians, the Costa Ricans, the Salvadorans — there's always a role that they can fit.

We've seen that Honduras has had a massive influx into MLS with guys like [Romell] Quioto and [Alberth] Elis. They're guys I've followed who have done really well.

I follow them in Houston, obviously, with my ties to the Dynamo, and they're a fun team to watch. Especially at home, because they're used to playing in the heat, they're used to playing in those types of surroundings. Then you put these young, energetic guys in good spots, and they can cause damage.

On the other side of the bracket, a report came out that Mexico coach Juan Carlos Osorio tried to call in some big-name reinforcements like the U.S. did, but got rebuffed by those players' clubs. So where is El Tri right now?

There's been some commentary from Mexican analysts — including national team legend Alberto Garcia Aspe when he was in Philadelphia earlier this month — that maybe they don't have to win the tournament since their team is mostly young players and backups.

But I have a hunch that especially if they lose to a Honduras team that has yet to score a goal in this tournament, there will be pitchforks out for Osorio.

Mexico are always — from a TV perspective and the entertainment side, which I've really learned in this business — they're peak drama. The storyline is always changing.

\Less than six months ago, they were top of the Hex, flying through it. Osorio still had that little blip on his résumé with the Chile result [the 7-0 loss in the Copa América Centenario last year]. But I think he was starting to sway people back to his side, the way they were just breezing through qualifying.

They go to the Confederations Cup [after] a little loss in a friendly [2-1 against Croatia on May 27], which I still don't think was much. Got through the group, and then got the beatdown from Germany [4-1], then they lose to Portugal.

And you [Osorio] go out the door conducting yourself in a not-very-professional manner, get yourself a six-match ban [from FIFA].

Then you come into the Gold Cup, where all of a sudden the expectations are once agian raised high. You bring a very young team, you put a lot of trust in that team — potentially hedging your bets in some ways.

But also, you're under pressure. If you're not at least in the final, people are going to be calling for you head as the coach of Mexico. Even if you are in the final but you don't play well, people are going to be calling for your head.

And I think Mexico have not played well in this tournament. They're always fun to watch, because then if you match them up against the United States, I don't care if you have a younger, more inexperienced group. Which we had in 2009, and we played a more experienced Mexican team that thrashed us 5-0 [in the final at Giants Stadium].

If Osorio is not in the final, at least, I think he will be out the door.

Elías Hernández strikes me as the best player on that team, and the guy who has to lead the attack if Mexico is to win the title.

You have guys like [Jesús] Dueñas and others who have more experience, but Elías Hernández has scored and assisted on some goals. He pretty much carried them on his back for one or two of those games [in the group stage]. He's probably the next guy, I would say, who's poised to make that jump to their "A" group.

Not too many of their guys have stood out to me, where I've said, "Hey, this guy can play at the next level and be a starter" And I'd say you'd look at the United States' [group stage] games, and you'd only pick a handful of guys out too.

How big is this tournament for Canada?

Massive. Cyle Larin is coming back into the mix now, with all of his trouble that he had down in Orlando [getting arrested for DUI].

It's an exciting time for Alphonso Davies, a guy that everybody has been looking at. He's not even an every-game starter for Vancouver at the moment. He's maturing as a player — look, he's 16, and he comes on and he scores a couple goals. Everybody has ramped up the hype machine about him.

He's that good, though. I've seen him in person enough times to believe it.

He is very, very good. I've seen him too, and it's exciting. Now, once you start to score at the international level, you'll see your name gets elevated to a different level of discussion, and people expect more from you. I would love to see a Canada-U.S. matchup at some point again, with stakes that are a little bit higher [than a friendly].

This could be a big moment for Canada, after a disappointing [2018 World Cup] qualifying campaign yet again, when they even looked like they were almost for sure into the Hex. It never is a "for sure" with Canada. They've got a mix of young and old, and they're jelling together with a new coach.

When it comes to Jamaica, I remember that during the Copa América Centenario, some Philadelphia Union fans thought that between Andre Blake's performances there and getting to the 2015 Gold Cup final, his transfer value was potentially hitting its peak.

The Union didn't sell him last winter, and I got asked about that some. I responded that I thought this Gold Cup would give him a big enough stage on which to be seen again. And here he is, getting the job done again.

I don't think his value has peaked in that regard. When you're as young as he is, in goalkeeper terms, you're always going to have a big upside. And when you perform at the international level, like you said, at bigger tournaments, you show well and top that value up a little bit.

Jamaica is another interesting one. … They're trying to figure out if they want to keep bringing guy in that have ties to Jamaica from England, and play over there, and then this new group [plays at the Gold Cup].

I still don't think they've been particularly great. It was a good result for them against Mexico, getting the 0-0 draw. They're a team that can cause problems, like they did to the U.S. back in 2015 [winning the Gold Cup semifinal].

If you catch Jamaica on their day, when they're jelling and they're organized and they're disciplined, they can catch you on the break. They have some guys that can create a little something special. So they're always kind of a wild card in this.

And then they have Blake in goal, who I think is a really wonderful goalkeeper. I've seen him play all the way back to UConn [where Blake went to college].

So your final four is the United States, Panama, Mexico and…

Oof. … Who's your pick in Canada-Jamaica? I'm curious.

I think Canada's going to steal it.

I'll pick Canada, just purely for the fact that I'd like to see them in a semifinal game against Mexico.