Deep NBA draft holds few guarantees

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Associated Press
Ty Lawson, a possible Sixers pick at 17, is said to be underrated.
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WHEN 76ERS president and general manager Ed Stefanski polled his personnel/scouting boardroom earlier this week about thoughts and suggestions for the No. 17 pick in tonight's NBA draft, one thing was painfully clear:

There was no consensus.

This wasn't like 2 years ago, when the Sixers, holding No. 12, consulted their overall ratings board and focused on Thaddeus Young. So what if his skills were so similar to those of Andre Iguodala? This was the guy who showed them more than they had anticipated in an individual workout. This was their guy.

And this wasn't like last season, when you could sense a buzz of real excitement and enthusiasm as they settled on Marreese Speights at No. 16. The belief was that they had gotten lucky, that they had uncovered a potential gem. As the season went on, it appeared they had been correct.

But now, at No. 17 tonight, there is . . . a list of candidates. They all can play at some level. They all have that most cherished of characteristics: upside. They all have those damning holes in their games.

Some of them will still be on the board when the Sixers choose. Some others, unexpectedly, will also be there. The list will expand and contract until, finally, one will rise to the surface.

Scenarios have always been known to change at the eleventh hour, but there was no indication that the Sixers had plans to bring anyone back for a second workout.

"At this time, you'd think it'd be whittled down more than it is," Stefanski said. "I don't know what that says about this draft, but I'd say we're more around eight guys we're arguing about. And I mean arguing. If you have thin skin, you shouldn't be in our boardroom."

The buzz among the fans and e-mailers seems to range from the lightning-quick point-guard skills of North Carolina's Ty Lawson to the senior experience and size of Virginia Commonwealth's Eric Maynor to the shooting guard skills and savvy of North Carolina's Wayne Ellington, the Episcopal Academy homeboy.

But inside the boardroom, the Sixers are also evaluating Wake Forest point guard Jeff Teague and the explosiveness of shooting guards Jodie Meeks (Kentucky) and Marcus Thornton (Louisiana State). Every Web site has a mock draft, and almost all of them have a different name plugged in at No. 17. Ian Thomsen, a respected and knowledgeable colleague at Sports Illustrated, has written in Gonzaga's Austin Daye, a 6-11 small forward with perimeter skills; that's not a name that has seeped out of the Sixers' inner sanctum.

If the Sixers settle on any position other than the backcourt, you will know that either a trade is brewing or a move in free agency is imminent. Teams cannot begin to negotiate with free agents until July 1, and cannot finalize free-agent deals until July 9.

But the dilemma is not germane only to the Sixers.

"I don't know of any player outside of [Oklahoma forward] Blake Griffin that you feel unbelievably confident about," said Jay Bilas, the ESPN analyst. "I can't remember a draft when you can look around and say 'That kid can go between 10 and 22.' "

ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla said he viewed the various guards as "all kind of the flavor of the month."

Bilas doesn't suggest which teams should take which players. He simply evaluates the players and underscores their pluses and minuses. A case in point: The seeming top-15 interest in Ohio State center B.J. Mullens, who has played just 1 year, didn't average double figures in scoring and is described as being "a ways away."

In this talent pool, he is viewed as the second-best "big" behind Griffin, who will go No. 1 to the Los Angeles Clippers.

"It says the draft is reduced to projections down the line," Bilas said. "It's true of [UCLA's] Jrue Holiday, a big-time talent coming out of high school. Neither did anything [dominant] as college freshmen. But teams say 'Where will this player be in 3 to 4 years?' He could be very good. It's a risk."

At the same time, Bilas has Lawson rated in his top dozen.

"I think he's undervalued," he said. "He's the most efficient of the point guards, he shot the best percentage, he doesn't commit turnovers, he's unbelievably fast with the ball . . . He's as fast end-to-end as anybody in the draft. Some people see him going in the 20s, and I think he's better than that."

And Maynor?

"He's not a great athlete, but he's a really good prospect," Bilas said. "He's a true point guard who knows how to play. In today's game, guys who know how to play have a unique value."

Earlier this week, Sixers coach Eddie Jordan said the eventual pick was likely to come from among the prospects he had seen work out. Still everyone knows that things can change radically if a player or two slips through the cracks, perhaps Holiday or Brandon Jennings, the guard who opted to play in Italy for a season after completing high school.

Even more telling was Jordan's stance that the No. 17 pick might not be an eight-man rotation player, but hopefully a contributor with a special skill, such as pressure defense or an ability to change the pace of a game.

"I like size," Jordan said. "But a small, tough, really quick guard is OK, too."

Jordan laughed and recalled that the Sixers had worked out mostly guards and small forwards, but that "most of them said 'I play the point,' knowing that's probably what we need." *

For more Sixers coverage, read

the Daily News' Sixers blog, Sixerville, at

http://go.philly.com/sixerville.

 

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