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Daily News Agenda: Was the Sixers' tanking worth it?

Bob Cooney: Still no answer

Was the tanking of the last two seasons, which produced a total of just 37 wins, worth it? That question can only be answered with more questions.

Here's why. Those who believe in The Process put forward by general manager Sam Hinkie will answer definitively that it will all work out. They will point out that Nerlens Noel is going to be a stud defensively. They will say that Joel Embiid is going to be a force in the middle and, coupled with Noel, will form a front court that could rival that of David Robinson and Tim Duncan from back in the day.

They will point out that there is a point guard of the future to be had at the third pick in next month's draft and that the five second round picks will provide depth or assets that will eventually produce more depth. They will also say that next year, the team may have four first-round picks and that Dario Saric will be a year closer to coming over to the NBA. They will also insist that Saric is a true NBA four-man, a possible star at the position.

For those who don't believe, it will be pointed out that the Sixers got the third pick in the draft on Tuesday night and didn't grab either of the protected picks that could have come to them from the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers. They will say that Embiid's injuries are a concern and that Noel is still an unknown project and that Saric may not be what many believe he will be.

Free agency is still an unknown as the biggest question remains: Why would a free agent come to a team that has won 37 of 164 over the past two season? Plus, though the Sixers have an abundance of salary cap space this season, others will catch them next year when the new television contract money comes into play.

Was the tanking worth it? It is still just too early too say.  The answers need to come sooner rather than later, and if the team stands pat at No. 3 next month and chooses a player and makes him a cornerstone of the franchise, then it is sooner. If the pick is dangled and players are moved and more assets are corraled, then The Process takes another step toward the future.

The answer right now is, there is no answer.

David Murphy: The Sixers are giving the fans what they want

As much as your precious little integrity-loving heart might rage against Darth Hinkie, the numbers say that he is giving his customers exactly what they want. Sure, Sixers fans prefer a mediocre team to a bad team, but not nearly as much as they prefer a good team to a mediocre team.
We don’t need any Civic Loraxes to tell us this. In market economies, fans speak for themselves. They pay for a product, or they don't. And the rate at which the Sixers gain paying customers when they are good far exceeds the attrition rate when they are bad (any quibbles regarding the honesty of the exact figures are irrelevant for our purposes, assuming team’s inflate figures by the same factor every year).
Annual attendance during the six full seasons of the Iverson/Finals era, when they were a Very Good Team: 775,000.
Annual attendance during the post-Iverson/Finals era, when they were a Very Mediocre Team: 625,000.
Annual attendance during the first two years of the Tank, when they were a Very Bad Team: 570,000
So the evidence suggests the difference between Very Good and Very Mediocre is -150,000 fans, while the difference between Very Mediocre and Very Bad is -55,000 fans.
Q: If a Bad Instead of Mediocre Season (BIOMS) is worth -55,000, and a Great Instead of Mediocre Season (GIOMS) is worth +150,000, how many GIOMS does it take to make up for three BIOMS?
A: One. It takes the Sixers one great season to earn back the ticket revenue they lose over three bad seasons. So a four-year stretch that goes Bad-Bad-Bad-Good equals one that goes OK-OK-OK-OK.
The only possible counterargument is that the odds of a team going from OK-to-good at some point during that four-year stretch outweigh the odds of a team going from bad-to-good at some point during that four-year stretch. And if you take an honest look at the post-Jordan NBA, you know that's not the case. Same goes for anybody who thinks the Sixers are alienating their fan base. In 1995-96 the Sixers won 18 games and drew 100,000 fewer fans than they did this season. The very next year, attendance increased by 135,000, and by 40,000 more the following season. And both of those teams finished 20 games under .500. The difference? Allen Iverson. A reason to believe the world was bigger than the second round of the playoffs. Hinkie is attempting to bring back that reason. You might disagree, but the wisdom of the crowd suggests otherwise.
When it comes to being lucky, they’re cursed.
 For the record – not that they ever seem to care about their record – the Sixers are oh-fer The Lottery.
           That’s zero-for-3 in the Game of Chance in the Sam Hinkie Era. They finished third-worst in the NBA; they’re picking third in the draft, one behind where the two franchise players will go.
 They finished second-worst in the NBA last year, and they lost ground and picked third. They were 11th-worst in 2013, and stayed at 11.
 The Plan has netted them nada.
           They can tank forever but they cannot trick the numbers. Hinkie did all he could, short of firing coach Brett Brown, who won too many games with Hinkie’s projects and rejects.
 The Sixers also had a chance to snare extra picks but, like the Cat and Crow sang, they’re worst.
 Last season, they moved backward and didn’t sniff Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker. This year, no Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor, the best assets in the draft market; much better bets than Nerlens Noel or Joel Embiid have shown they can be. The embryonic state of Noel’s and Embiid’s development and their injury history still make them long-term gambles.
           The Sixers failed – that’s what it was: failure – to gain possession of the Lakers’ and the Heat’s picks this year, too. They prayed that the Lakers would fall out of the top five, the Heat out of the top 10.
           Worse: 
 If the Lakers remain among the top three in the draft the next (ital) two (end ital) seasons, the Sixers don’t get the pick until 2018. The same is true if the Heat remain among the top 10 in the draft next season: No pick until 2017.
 Yes, this year the Sixers might have slid even further down the lottery line (see 2014), as far as sixth, but the Curse of Carmelo doomed the Knicks to the worst Tuesday night. They flipped with the Lakers, from second to fourth.
 Members of the Hinkie Cult, take heart; they will stink next season, too.
 And, baby, they’ll try to tank again.
Dick Jerardi
As a charter member of the club that is convinced the Sixers ``plan’’ is a fraud that is serving only to strip away all its highly-paid assets as the franchise has increased in value by more than 300 percent under the shrewd businessmen that own it and believes the end game is more likely to be a highly profitable sale than an NBA championship, the was the tanking worth it question is a snapshot into a larger picture that may take a while to come into focus.
Still, for the true believers in the ``plan,’’ the answer is probably yes. For me, the answer is a resounding no because even if I accept the ``plan’’ at face value, I never thought it had any chance of succeeding anyway.
The NBA at the top has become a league of shooting and skill. Please check out the Warriors-Rockets series for evidence. The Sixers have minimal skill and little shooting. In fact, you could make a strong case that Brett Brown’s team had the worst NBA offense of the 21st Century.
The ``plan’’ depends heavily on the draft by a. getting a superstar and/or b. finding potential All Stars. Good luck with that. The sport is just not producing great players at the moment. One could debate the reasons why, but it is a fact. Anthony Davis (2012) was the last truly great college player.  
This was the worst season of college basketball in years. Offense was a rumor, so bad they are changing rules to make the game watchable. Kentucky got to 38-0 not because it was historically great, but because the competition was historically awful.
Sam Hinkie must have been thrilled the Sixers did not end up with the Lakers and/or Heat lottery picks. Then, there would have been some actual accountability instead of this vague promise of a promising future.
 The Sixers could get as many as four first-round picks in next year’s draft. And that is what they will be selling between now and June 2016. I am not buying.
This is a shell game that appeals to fantasy players and wannabe general managers. It is not a model based on 2015 basketball reality.

As much as your precious little integrity-loving heart might rage against Darth Hinkie, the numbers say that he is giving his customers exactly what they want. Sure, Sixers fans prefer a mediocre team to a bad team, but not nearly as much as they prefer a good team to a mediocre team.

We don't need any Civic Loraxes to tell us this. In market economies, fans speak for themselves. They pay for a product, or they don't. And the rate at which the Sixers gain paying customers when they are good far exceeds the attrition rate when they are bad (any quibbles regarding the honesty of the exact figures are irrelevant for our purposes, assuming team's inflate figures by the same factor every year).

Annual attendance during the six full seasons of the Iverson/Finals era, when they were a Very Good Team: 775,000.

Annual attendance during the post-Iverson/Finals era, when they were a Very Mediocre Team: 625,000.

Annual attendance during the first two years of the Tank, when they were a Very Bad Team: 570,000.

So the evidence suggests the difference between Very Good and Very Mediocre is -150,000 fans, while the difference between Very Mediocre and Very Bad is -55,000 fans.

Q: If a Bad Instead of Mediocre Season (BIOMS) is worth -55,000, and a Great Instead of Mediocre Season (GIOMS) is worth +150,000, how many GIOMS does it take to make up for three BIOMS?

A: One. It takes the Sixers one great season to earn back the ticket revenue they lose over three bad seasons. So a four-year stretch that goes Bad-Bad-Bad-Good equals one that goes OK-OK-OK-OK.

The only possible counterargument is that the odds of a team going from OK-to-good at some point during that four-year stretch outweigh the odds of a team going from bad-to-good at some point during that four-year stretch. And if you take an honest look at the post-Jordan NBA, you know that's not the case. Same goes for anybody who thinks the Sixers are alienating their fan base. In 1995-96 the Sixers won 18 games and drew 100,000 fewer fans than they did this season. The very next year, attendance increased by 135,000, and by 40,000 more the following season. And both of those teams finished 20 games under .500.

The difference? Allen Iverson. A reason to believe the world was bigger than the second round of the playoffs. Hinkie is attempting to bring back that reason. You might disagree, but the wisdom of the crowd suggests otherwise.

Marcus Hayes: They're cursed

When it comes to being lucky, they're cursed. For the record – not that they ever seem to care about their record – the Sixers are oh-fer The Lottery.

That's zero-for-3 in the Game of Chance in the Sam Hinkie Era. They finished third-worst in the NBA; they're picking third in the draft, one behind where the two franchise players will go. They finished second-worst in the NBA last year, and they lost ground and picked third. They were 11th-worst in 2013, and stayed at 11. The Plan has netted them nada.

They can tank forever but they cannot trick the numbers. Hinkie did all he could, short of firing coach Brett Brown, who won too many games with Hinkie's projects and rejects. The Sixers also had a chance to snare extra picks but, like the Cat and Crow sang, they're worst. Last season, they moved backward and didn't sniff Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker. This year, no Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor, the best assets in the draft market; much better bets than Nerlens Noel or Joel Embiid have shown they can be. The embryonic state of Noel's and Embiid's development and their injury history still make them long-term gambles.

The Sixers failed – that's what it was: failure – to gain possession of the Lakers' and the Heat's picks this year, too. They prayed that the Lakers would fall out of the top five, the Heat out of the top 10.

Worse: If the Lakers remain among the top three in the draft the next two seasons, the Sixers don't get the pick until 2018. The same is true if the Heat remain among the top 10 in the draft next season: No pick until 2017. Yes, this year the Sixers might have slid even further down the lottery line (see 2014), as far as sixth, but the Curse of Carmelo doomed the Knicks to the worst Tuesday night. They flipped with the Lakers, from second to fourth.

Members of the Hinkie Cult, take heart; they will stink next season, too. And, baby, they'll try to tank again.

Dick Jerardi: A shell game for suckers

As a charter member of the club that is convinced the Sixers ``plan'' is a fraud that is serving only to strip away all its highly-paid assets as the franchise has increased in value by more than 300 percent under the shrewd businessmen that own it and believes the end-game is more likely to be a highly profitable sale than an NBA championship, the 'was the tanking worth it' question is a snapshot into a larger picture that may take a while to come into focus.

Still, for the true believers in the "plan,'' the answer is probably yes. For me, the answer is a resounding no because even if I accept the "plan'' at face value, I never thought it had any chance of succeeding anyway.

The NBA at the top has become a league of shooting and skill. Please check out the Warriors-Rockets series for evidence. The Sixers have minimal skill and little shooting. In fact, you could make a strong case that Brett Brown's team had the worst NBA offense of the 21st Century.

The "plan'' depends heavily on the draft by a) getting a superstar and/or, b) finding potential All Stars. Good luck with that. The sport is just not producing great players at the moment. One could debate the reasons why, but it is a fact. Anthony Davis (2012) was the last truly great college player.

This was the worst season of college basketball in years. Offense was a rumor, so bad they are changing rules to make the game watchable. Kentucky got to 38-0 not because it was historically great, but because the competition was historically awful.

Sam Hinkie must have been thrilled the Sixers did not end up with the Lakers and/or Heat lottery picks. Then, there would have been some actual accountability instead of this vague promise of a promising future.

The Sixers could get as many as four first-round picks in next year's draft. And that is what they will be selling between now and June 2016. I am not buying.

This is a shell game that appeals to fantasy players and wannabe general managers. It is not a model based on 2015 basketball reality.

Daily News staff poll

Again, the question: Was the Sixers' tanking worth it?

Ed Barkowitz...No

Les Bowen…No

Doug Darroch...Yes

Jim DeStefano...Yes

Paul Domowitch…No

Sam Donnellon…Yes

Marcus Hayes...No

Rich Hofmann…Yes

Dick Jerardi…No

Mike Kern...Yes

Ryan Lawrence...No

Tom Mahon...Yes

Drew McQuade...No

David Murphy...Yes

Mark Perner…Yes

Leigh Primavera…Yes

Frank Seravalli…No

Christine Sherman...No

John Smallwood…No

Bob Vetrone Jr....No

Deb Woodell...No

CONSENSUS: NO