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Sixers' last five games key to draft lottery chances

Dario Saric takes pride in his durability. But there's another reason he is determined to play with a sore left heel.

Dario Saric takes pride in his durability. But there's another reason he is determined to play with a sore left heel.

"My target is to try to take 30 wins this year," said the 76ers power forward, who has played in all 77 games this season. "If you are out some games, you have less chance to take that 30 wins."

However, getting to 30 wins could hurt the Sixers' chances of getting a top-three pick at the NBA draft lottery on May 16.

At 28-49, the Sixers have the league's fifth-worst record with five games remaining. They would have an 8.8 percent chance at the top pick and a 29.1 percent chance at a top-three slot if their position remained the same. The Sixers also would finish no lower than eighth in the lottery.

But because of trades in 2015, they could still get the Los Angeles Lakers' first-round pick and will have the right to swap first-rounders with the Sacramento Kings.

But nothing is guaranteed.

The Lakers will keep their pick if falls within the top three selections at the lottery. In that scenario, the Sixers would get Los Angeles' pick next season. For now, the Lakers (22-55) have a 46.9 percent chance of keeping their pick because they have third-worst record.

Meanwhile, swapping picks with the Kings would only benefit the Sixers if Sacramento finishes with a higher lottery pick. But with the seventh-worst record, the Kings (30-47) have a 4.3 percent chance at the top pick and a 15 percent chance of being in the top three.

There's also no guarantee that the Sixers will finish with one of the five worst records, especially if they win two more games, as Saric wants.

Just six games separated the Orlando Magic (27-50), Sixers, New York Knicks (29-48), the Kings, the Minnesota Timberwolves (30-45 before Monday's matchup with Portland Trail Blazers), the Dallas Mavericks (32-44), and New Orleans Pelicans (33-44) for the fourth- to 10th-worst records in the league.

So the Sixers would be better off losing their remaining games to maximize their lottery chances.

They are one-point favorites over the Nets in Tuesday night's game at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers' remaining games are against the Chicago Bulls (Thursday), Milwaukee Bucks (Saturday), Indiana Pacers (April 10), and the Knicks (April 12).

The Sixers also could have four second-round picks in the June 22 draft.

Rookie of the month

Saric was named the NBA Eastern Conference rookie of the month for March on Monday. This marks his second straight rookie-of-the-month award.

Saric led all league rookies in scoring (18.4 points per game), made field goals (115), and made free throws (54) in March. The 22-year-old was also second in rebounding (7.0), third in made three-pointers (28), and fourth in assists (3.4).

He finished with a career-high 32 points and 10 rebounds on March 24 against the Chicago Bulls.  Saric also had 29- and 28-point performances during the month.

kpompey@phillynews.com

@PompeyOnSixers

www.philly.com/Sixersblog