What the Sixers can expect from J.J. Redick | Marcus Hayes
Everyone knows about the outside shooting, but Redicks value goes beyond that.
LAST WEEK, the Sixers committed $23 million to sign podcaster J.J. Redick, who made $21 million in his three previous seasons combined. The deal became official Thursday.
It was money well spent.
Incredibly, Redick is the first viable starting NBA guard on the Sixers' roster since The Process began more than 4 years ago. In fact, after Sam Hinkie traded Jrue Holiday on draft night 2013 - his first significant transaction - Hinkie never replaced Holiday, thereby ensuring perpetually awful play and the toxic culture of leaderless losing that sped Hinkie's demotion, then departure.
The addition of Redick, a stand-up guy and a deadeye shooter, is a watershed moment. Off the court, it further stabilizes a painfully young locker room. On the court, it creates opportunities for the Sixers that would otherwise be limited.
It will now be more difficult for teams to effectively double-team center Joel Embiid in his 55 restricted-minutes games, or whatever floating parameters sports science affords him.
It will now be more difficult to pressure young point guards Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz, who, as rookies, will probably average more turnovers than an Amish grandmother.
Now, late in games, the Sixers will have Redick, Fultz and Dario Saric as perimeter options - clear upgrades over Gerald Henderson, T.J. McConnell and rented veteran Ersan Ilyasova.
All of this would imply marked improvement over the 28-win team from last season, right? Well, maybe. The addition of Redick and its rippling effects do not guarantee marked improvement.
Granted, if everything goes perfectly - great health, some semblance of a halfcourt offense and crummy conference opponents - then the Sixers might emerge from the East as a low-seeded playoff team. However, chatter about the addition of Redick suddenly turning the Sixers into a .500 club is, frankly, irrational.
Sure, be optimistic, but be realistic. Consider what Redick was, and what he became, and what he is.
Redick was a shooter off the bench in his first seven seasons. Redick then went to the Clippers for four seasons, where he was the sharpshooter option . . . in an offense that featured All-Star forward Blake Griffin, was run by peerless point guard Chris Paul and saw guard Jamal Crawford win two of his three Sixth Man of the Year awards.
Yes, Redick became a starter and averaged almost 16 points per game and hit 44 percent of his three-point shots, more than six points and 5 percent improvements in each category. Do not expect that sort of production in Philadelphia.
There is no Blake Griffin. There is no Chris Paul. There is no Jamal Crawford.
Could Embiid evolve into the nightly nightmare that Griffin became? Sure.
Could Simmons and Fultz approach (or even exceed) the Paul/Crawford combination? Perhaps.
Will those things happen in the 2017-18 NBA season?
Probably not.
So, then, what would be realistic expectations for Redick?
That depends on the health of Embiid and Simmons, the cornerstones of the rebuild. It depends on the backcourt combinations coach Brett Brown uses in deploying Simmons, Redick, Fultz, Jerryd Bayless and McConnell. It depends on whether forwards Robert Covington and Saric are used as weapons or as complements.
Redick has always been a complement: a dangerous weapon, and a focal point for defenses, but a player of whom teams occasionally would lose track in halfcourt sets. For the moment, Redick will be the focal point, at least until Simmons and Fultz prove they warrant more than nominal defensive attention. When Embiid rests, Redick will be smothered. Simply put, Redick might not be open all that often.
That will probably mean scoring closer to 12 points on closer to 40 percent shooting. Embiid and Fultz will command a large number of shots, which might knock Redick's attempts down from 11.7, his average as a Clipper, to about 10. Paul - a superb penetrator, a superior shooter and the best passer of his generation - no longer be will feeding Redick perfect passes, which were crucial for Redick's effectiveness. This cannot be overstated. According to NBA.com, about 95 percent of Redick's three-pointers last season were assisted.
Still, even if Redick's numbers diminish, they should be more than satisfactory. Redick delivers dividends beyond numbers.
His professionalism and preparation recall Chase Utley, and he will lead by that sort of example. Now 33, Redick works as hard as ever, but he works smarter than ever. He polishes his skills with specific routines according to obsessively detailed plans. He doesn't waste his energy. He eats well.
As a player who has hit his ceiling, Redick is the perfect example for Fultz to follow.
As a veteran clutch shooter, he is the perfect player for the Sixers as they learn how to win.
In the first 44 minutes of games, he can fuel Sixer runs and staunch opponents' runs. In the last four minutes, he can hit big shots to increase leads, to cut leads or to keep pace. That ability was absent for four long seasons. For anyone who watched the Sixers being overrun in third quarters or watched them founder in the fourth, that ability alone is worth every penny of $23 million.
Maybe more.
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