Embiid, damaged goods and the Sixers' gamble

I clearly remember that I was sick the week they taught orthopedic medicine in journalism school, and everyone was still buzzing about it when I returned, particularly the really interesting part about the treatment of tarsal navicular stress fractures.

So, when it comes to the debate regarding Joel Embiid - who is going to be a beast of a center in the NBA if he can ever, you know, play - I am woefully unqualified to judge whether the 76ers made a mistake by drafting him, a mistake in choosing his initial care, a mistake in letting him do crazy dunks during warm-ups last season, a mistake in not properly monitoring his zeal for rehabilitation, or a mistake in what they announced on Saturday to be the next step (you will pardon the expression) in this convoluted process.

Many other observers, including fans, team officials and members of the media, were obviously in their seats bright and early during orthopedic medicine week at school and they are in much better position to know exactly what has happened, what should have happened and what will happen. One correspondent told me by e-mail this week that the fracture is only recurring because Embiid is young and still growing, and that he will be fine. He did not explain why all the other young, growing NBA players are not sidelined with the same thing. Again, I should have just taken some aspirin and gone to class.

To review, for those who have followed the Sixers lately in the same way one follows Montana weather reports - from afar and with a certain detachment - the team's penchant for finding bargains in the dent-and-ding bin blew up over the weekend when it was reported by The Inquirer that Embiid will have a second surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot that will require a second season without playing basketball. This was not a huge surprise. The Sixers have been giving out snippets of ominous information recently the way Soviet state television used to go dark and play funereal dirges before announcing the death of a premier.

Still, it did call a few things into question.

There are three methods for treating a navicular stress fracture. One is to put the patient in a non-weight-bearing boot and then set the egg timer for five months. For fractures that aren't displaced (out of alignment) or non-union (separated), which is how Embiid's was described, that is the preferred method. The other two treatments require surgery, either by inserting screws into the area or by grafting the two pieces together. Embiid's first surgery, which took place last June just before the NBA draft, inserted two screws. This latest surgery, which GM Sam Hinkie said would take place very soon, will be the grafting procedure.

If the injury to Embiid's foot had not been discovered before the 2014 draft during a post-workout examination by the Cleveland Cavaliers, then Embiid would never have been taken by the Sixers. In some circles, that makes no sense. The team only selected him because he was hurt and couldn't play, but for the Sixers it made sense. They have been playing the long game since Hinkie arrived, and that not only means buying green bananas, but taking on some bruised ones that may or may not be palatable when the time comes.

As it was, Embiid's talent was worthy of being drafted with one of the first two picks. Instead, the Sixers got him with the third and put him in the same bank where they stashed Nerlens Noel for a year and where they stash various European players. Unfortunately, these deposits are not protected by the FDIC.

Hinkie said the timetable for recovery from the first surgery would be "five to eight months," which could have put Embiid on the court last January, at the latest, but everyone winked at that since the Sixers weren't trying to improve the roster and win games. It was disconcerting, though, when it began to leak out that Embiid's recovery wasn't speeding along, whether because the player didn't really apply himself or because he's a big dude and those are little bones down there.

When he still wasn't scrimmaging five-on-five in practice by the end of the season and coach Brett Brown said Embiid wasn't a sure thing for the summer leagues, those were red flags that even those of us who only DBI (diagnose by Internet) could interpret. Saturday's news was just the confirmation.

Where this leaves the Sixers is approximately one season behind where they would have been if Embiid recovered fully from the first surgery. They can say otherwise, but with Noel and Embiid in the bank, the Sixers should have maneuvered around and found themselves a guard in the draft rather than taking a third big man, even one as promising as Jahlil Okafor.

Embiid's future is another matter. The team, according to those inside, privately feels some measure of culpability belongs to the player, who had to be sent home to sit in a corner during a road trip because he wasn't doing his work. Or maybe he is just a 7-foot scapegoat for the habit of buying bruised fruit.

You didn't have to learn medicine in school to know that surgery is a prediction, not a promise. Some predictions, even good ones, turn out to be wrong. It doesn't help if all the analytics that led to the prediction were right. In fact, it can make it hurt worse.

bford@phillynews.com

@bobfordsports