2011 NBA draft shows it's an inexact science

Most NBA draft classes have them: the cautionary tale, the European bust, the college all-American who couldn't cut it, the late first-rounders who outperformed their draft order.

The 2011 draft has all that in multiples. Now that it can be judged a little more fairly, if not completely, the 2011 draft is a reminder that mock drafts sometimes need to be mocked and day-after report cards need to be graded later.

Looking back at 2011, you can see how a team of the players selected between 11 and 20 might beat a team of those drafted one through 10. That's without one of the best players in that class who was selected 30th, the final pick of the first round.

Sixers fans will be interested to know that one consistent starter emerged from the second round in 2011, and that player was chosen by the Houston Rockets, where Sixers general manager Sam Hinkie then toiled in a personnel role.

Sixers fans will be chagrined to be reminded that their team came up with one of the more impressive steals in 2011, but that proved true only after the choice, Nikola Vucevic, was later part of one of the most infamous Sixers trades: They gave up a lot of somethings for a nothing in the name of Andrew Bynum.

That year, Kyrie Irving went No. 1 to Cleveland, a no-brainer pick that held up. It was after Irving that the top 10 often proved problematic. The No. 2 choice, Derrick Williams out of Arizona, also seemed a no-brainer, but Williams isn't an NBA starter these days and is on his second team. The sixth pick, Jan Vesely, is out of the league, playing in Turkey. The 10th pick, college phenom Jimmer Fredette, is a deep reserve, and that choice was all the worse for the player who came right after. The Warriors grabbed Klay Thompson, a key part of this season's championship run.

"The 2011 NBA draft has widely been regarded as a down year for talent," NBADraft.net wrote that year. "But it offers a chance for GMs to prove themselves, the perfect draft to find that needle in a haystack."

Perfectly put. However, that same site also provided evidence that grading drafts immediately afterward often is based on the conventional wisdom provided by mock drafts. The site gave the Wizards a grade of B for taking Vesely and then grabbing Florida State's Chris Singleton 18th. Singleton, seen as a defensive specialist, also is out of the league.

The flip side, those 2011 draft steals, only began with Klay Thompson. They also include all-star Jimmy Butler, taken 30th by the Bulls. Go to Kawhi Leonard of the Spurs, taken 15th. Add in Chandler Parsons, taken 38th by Houston, now with Dallas. (If you count Donatas Motiejunas, obtained the day after the draft in a trade, the Rockets got three eventual NBA starters, full- or part-time, for them or other teams, out of the 14th, 20th, and 38th picks.)

Vucevic, taken 16th by the Sixers, has put up strong numbers nightly as Orlando's starting center. The Sixers also picked up a legit NBA player, Lavoy Allen, with the 50th pick.

As always, the second round has more misses than hits, but the very last selection, Isaiah Thomas, No. 60, made the league and averaged 19 points a game last season with Boston.

It's not surprising that the early first-round picks often have a high-risk quality, said Ed Stefanski, who was part of the Sixers' brain trust in 2011, for the last time. He's now with the Memphis Grizzlies.

"You could make that argument in a lot of drafts - guys up top, you're going for the proverbial upside, the talent you project out," Stefanski said. With players who stayed longer in college, he said, "you see a little more of the warts."

Always betting on the upside is "sort of the nature of our business," said one team's scouting director, who spoke on condition of anonymity. His rule of thumb: A top-five pick should eventually be an all-star; picks six through 10 should be starters; 11 to 15, rotation players; and 16 to 30, contributors. Judge the steals and busts from there.

When players first started going to the NBA straight from high school, they often were undervalued and teams got burned. The best example: In three straight drafts, from 1995 to '97, the Warriors passed on these three players coming straight out of high school - Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, and Tracy McGrady. The three the Warriors took were Joe Smith, Todd Fuller, and Adonal Foyle. Those decisions speak for themselves. Lessons were learned all over the league.

As the impetus shifted the other way, there was no sure guidebook to success. One of the bigger draft fiascoes of recent years came from picking potential over obvious production. In 2009, Minnesota had both the fifth and sixth picks and, to the surprise of the basketball universe, decided to take a pair of point guards. That turned out to be just the beginning of the fiasco.

The first was an 18-year-old Spanish phenom, Ricky Rubio. Next came a one-year Syracuse guard, Jonny Flynn, who has been out of the league since 2012. Flynn would have been an all-time bust even without factoring in the player selected right after him, another point guard - Stephen Curry. (If Timberwolves GM David Kahn had taken two straight point guards and one of them was Curry, he would have been hailed as a genius instead of eventually losing his job.)

Sure, players can develop past their original draft order. Some have suggested Kawhi Leonard has done that, with no way to explain it other than he ended up with the Spurs. Maybe, but another scouting director, who shared his 2011 notes, had called Leonard "among the most NBA-ready players in this draft." He noted the mismatches Leonard would create on offense while calling him a defensive stalwart who could guard three positions.

This same scout didn't trust Fredette's ability to translate his skills to the NBA - "does not look like a guy who could create off the bounce or get to the hole as much as he did" in college.

Not that everything is a hit for every scout. That same scout admitted to missing a bit on Markieff and Marcus Morris, drafted 13th and 14th, by Phoenix and Houston, now both with the Suns. This scout had "tweener" position questions about both Prep Charter graduates, among other concerns. Both turned out to be productive players. Last season, Markieff averaged 15.3 points, starting every game. Marcus averaged 10.4 points, starting 35 games.

There still was talent emerging from the 2011 top 10. Tristan Thompson, who went fourth to Cleveland, just proved his worth in the NBA Finals. It took Thompson a while since he played only one season at Texas, and some experts were surprised he came out. But he shows you have to wait to judge. If Thompson had played four seasons of college ball, 2014-15 would have been his rookie season.

It's also fun to think about how history could easily have shifted a bit. According to former Wizards coach Flip Saunders, the Wizards almost took Klay Thompson instead of Vesely, the Czech big man now playing in Turkey. Now Minnesota's coach, Saunders recently told Grantland.com: "We toyed with it, but heaven forbid you go out of the box and pick someone you're higher on than anyone else."

A lesson of 2011 is that sometimes you must do exactly that, since the conventional wisdom can be a road to the Turkish league as easily as the playoffs.

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Here are the top five steals and top five busts from the 2011 NBA draft.

Steals

Player   Pick   Team   

Jimmy Butler   30th   Chicago

An all-star this season, Butler averaged 20 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists and was voted the league's most improved player.

Kawhi Leonard   15th   San Antonio   

The MVP of the 2014 Finals, Leonard was this season's defensive player of the year.

Klay Thompson   11th   Golden State   

An all-star this year, Thompson averaged 21.7 points for the NBA champions.

Chandler Parsons   38th   Houston   

With the Rockets and this season with Dallas, Parsons averaged at least 15.5 points the last three seasons.

Nikola Vucevic   16th   76ers   

Vucevic turned out to be a great choice, but not for the Sixers. Part of the Andrew Bynum trade, Vucevic averaged 19.3 points and 10.9 rebounds this season as Orlando's center.

Busts

Player   Pick   Team   

Jan Vesely   6th   Washington

After averaging 3.4 points over three seasons with Washington and Denver, Vesely now plays in Turkey.

Chris Singleton   18th   Washington   

Singleton played in the D League this season after averaging 4.1 points over three seasons with the Wizards.

Derrick Williams   2d   Minnesota   

A full-time starter for one season with Minnesota, Williams averaged 8.3 points in 19.8 minutes coming off Sacramento's bench this season.

Jimmer Fredette   10th   Milwaukee   

Part of a draft-day trade to Sacramento, Fredette was waived by the Kings during the 2013-14 season. Playing for New Orleans this year, the former college scoring phenom averaged 3.6 points in 10.2 minutes.

Nolan Smith   21st   Portland   

The ACC player of the year as a senior at Duke, Smith averaged 3.3 points over two seasons in Portland, played part of a season in Turkey, then played this season in the D League.

- Mike Jensen
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@jensenoffcampus