Thursday, December 18, 2014

Super Bowl 2014: Betting trends favor NFC, underdog in Broncos vs Seahawks

Underdogs have won four of the past six Super Bowls and they boast a 5-1 ATS streak in those games. What other Super Bowl betting trends point to the Seahawks over the Broncos?

With an epic Super Bowl XLVIII slated with two No. 1 seeds set to meet, a trio of trends seems to favor the Seattle Seahawks over the Denver Broncos.

The NFC is on a 5-1 ATS roll in the big game, after the San Francisco 49ers lost last year as 4.5-point favorites to the Baltimore Ravens. Underdogs are enjoying the same Super Bowl trend with a 5-1 ATS run, while they've won four of those six outright.

Favorites of 1 to 3 points are just 3-7 ATS in the Super Bowl. After last year's 34-31 win by the Baltimore Ravens, who were 4.5-point underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers, there have been seven Super Bowls that have fallen between 1-3 points.

In the playoffs, underdogs finished 5-4-1 ATS in the AFC and NFC playoffs, with three winning outright. Eight of the 10 games finished under the posted number.

Another interesting trend — one with no logic footing — is the coin toss betting trend. NFC teams have won the coin toss in 15 of the last 16 title games.

As of Wednesday, AFC champion Denver (17-5 SU, 13-9 ATS) was a 2.5-point favorite over NFC champion Seattle (19-3, 16-6), which comes into the pro football championship on a 17-3-1 ATS run as underdogs, dating back to 2011.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are in on winning streaks of 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS when installed as favorites.

Seattle has covered six of its last nine playoff games, but is mired in losing streaks of 3-10-1 ATS after a bye week and 3-12 SU against the Broncos since 1995. Denver, on the other hand, is in on an 11-2 ATS win streak after a bye week. The two-week delay before the Super Bowl isn't officially a 'bye' but provides some historical insight into how teams perform with an extra week to prepare and rest.

The total is 47.5 points, and in the Super Bowl, when the line has been between 42 and 48 points, there have been nine Overs and six Unders. Overall there have been 25 Overs and 22 Unders — including 18 Overs in the last 28 years.

These two have gone Over in six of the last eight meetings, though they haven't met since 2010. The Seahawks have stayed Under in seven straight games and 14 of their 22 this year, while the Broncos have stayed low in five in a row, despite going Over in 14 of their 22 games.

The game goes at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

This article originally appeared on SBNation.

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