Phillies are team to beat in NL East again

THE PHILLIES ARE the team to beat in the National League East.

Pretty boring, huh? Doesn't have nearly the zing it did 3 years ago when Jimmy Rollins fired up the old hot stove with what at the time was considered a bold prediction. Now it's just shrug, ho-hum, yawn.

Winning three straight division titles, back-to-back pennants and a world championship just takes all the fizz out of some harmless offseason fun. Sigh.

Not that the Braves, Mets, Marlins or even the Nationals are going to concede anything, of course. Unexplained slumps and unforeseen injuries can change everything. There's a reason why no National League team has made it to the World Series three straight times since the St. Louis Cardinals during World War II.

And to have a chance to do that, the Phillies still have to survive their own division. With that in mind, here's a look at the outlying precincts of the NL East:

The Braves are on the upswing. Rookie righthander Tommy Hanson was called up in early June and went 11-4 with a 2.89 earned run average the rest of the way. His continued maturation should more than make up for the trade that sent veteran Javier Vazquez to the Yankees.

And Atlanta has another blue-chipper on the way. Whether Jason Heyward makes the team out of spring training or spends a month or two at Triple A further refining his skills before becoming the everyday rightfielder is to be determined. What's not in doubt is that the organization has extremely high expectations for the 20-year-old.

The Braves' strength last season was pitching. The 3.57 staff ERA was lowest in the division. With a little more offense, they could once again be a team to be reckoned with, although there are some concerns as well.

The lineup continues to revolve, to a large extent, around future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones. He turns 38 in April and, because of injuries, has had more than 500 at-bats in a season just once since 2003. The Vazquez trade reportedly was motivated at least in part because of payroll concerns. And there were reports, denied all around, that Cox and general manager Frank Wren were at odds last season. There are those who believe that's why the manager has decided to call it quits after the 2010 season.

Once again, they let some familiar names go for financial reasons. This winter that included outfielder Jeremy Hermida, righthanders Matt Lindstrom and Kiko Calero, first baseman Ross Gload and utility man Alfredo Amezaga.

This is standard operating procedure in South Florida, where the Marlins historically operate with one of baseball's smallest payrolls . . . and still churn out teams that are at least competitive.

With a new stadium on the horizon, though, there are subtle signs that it's no longer business as usual. The Marlins also usually trade at least a couple key players who have become arbitration-eligible rather than pay market price to keep them. Not this year. They kept righthander Josh Johnson, the staff ace, along with second baseman Dan Uggla, third baseman Jorge Cantu, outfielder Cody Ross and righthanders Ricky Nolasco and Leo Nunez. As a result, the payroll is projected to jump to around $45 million, an increase of more than $10 million.

And, as usual, the Fish have talented young prospects to keep an eye on. This year that crop includes Logan Morrison, who could be a rookie of the year candidate if he beats out Gaby Sanchez as the regular first baseman; outfielder Bryan Peterson, who tore up the Arizona Fall League; and reliever Dan Jennings, who had a composite 2.15 ERA at three minor league stops last season.

The Marlins finished second, six games behind the Phillies, in 2009, and with their nucleus look even more dangerous this year.

Injuries ravaged New York's hopes, but they also served to expose cracks in the foundation. Player-development vice president Tony Bernazard was fired after it was reported that he verbally abused minor leaguers. Manager Jerry Manuel survived a barrage of second-guessing, but it's widely assumed that another slow start would force a change. General manager Omar Minaya also has come under fire but so far seems to have retained the backing of the Wilpon family ownership . . . which took a huge financial hit in the Madoff scandal.

And that's just off the field. The Mets are looking for a first baseman to replace Carlos Delgado, have to settle on a regular catcher (Omir Santos, Henry Blanco or Josh Thole), find a fifth starter and try to figure out why (other than the distant fences at Citi Field) third baseman David Wright slipped from 33 to 10 homers last year.

Signing free agent Jason Bay should pump up the offense, but the real key will be seeing how the stars return from injuries. That includes lefthander Johan Santana, who had five bone chips removed from his elbow, and shortstop Jose Reyes, who had surgery to repair a torn hamstring tendon.

But the Mets have to be better. After all, it's hard to imagine them being worse.

That's not fair. It also may be a problem, since Strasburg showed early signs of chafing at being the center of attention. And it's almost beside the point since it's a longshot that he'll open the season in the majors, anyway.

Strasburg is just the most visible prospect in Washington's ongoing strategy to stockpile as many good young pitchers as possible. That seems likely to pay off someday, although not in 2010.

Still, the Nats are doing what they can to at least get better. They committed $15 million over the next 2 years to free-agent righthander Jason Marquis, giving them a veteran presence for the young arms to lean on. They gave catcher Pudge Rodriguez a 2-year deal even though Jesus Flores has been considered their catcher of the future.

Controversial general manager Jim Bowden resigned under fire last spring and was replaced by Mike Rizzo. Manager Manny Acta took the fall at midseason and was replaced by Jim Riggleman. Contention might be beyond Washington's grasp this season but stability and respectability would be a step in the right direction. *

Most of the focus in Viera, Fla., this spring will be on Stephen Strasburg, the first overall draft pick last June who is being portrayed as the savior for a struggling franchise. The Mets unraveled in 2009. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. Murphy's Law wasn't actually named after outfielder Daniel Murphy. It just seemed that way sometimes. Once again, the Marlins got through the offseason without signing a major free agent.

This will be the farewell tour for manager Bobby Cox, and Atlanta is hoping it will coincide with a return to the postseason after a 4-year absence that followed an incredible streak of 14 straight division titles.