Why the Phillies probably won't sign Josh Hamilton, and why that probably is a good thing
The latest Phillies and baseball news from Philly.com.
Why the Phillies probably won't sign Josh Hamilton, and why that probably is a good thing
We'll start with the caveats. The Phillies could have far more cash at their disposal than they are letting on. They could have an ownership group that is willing to risk four or five years on Josh Hamilton. They could be trigger-happy. Or the Rangers could just be claiming interest in retaining Hamilton out of politeness. But absent a significant extenuating circumstance, I simply cannot envision a scenario in which Hamilton signing with the Phillies makes sense.
Yesterday, Sports Radio 610 WIP reported that the Phillies have made the free agent slugger a three-year, $80 million offer. I have no reason to doubt the veracity of that information. In fact, it makes perfect sense.
What doesn't make sense is why the Rangers would not match that offer. The conventional wisdom at the winter meetings last week was that both sides would like their partnership to continue. Early in the free agent signing period, various national reports cited anonymous sources saying that Hamilton was looking for a contract of six or seven years, which led to the speculation that the Rangers might wave goodbye to their star slugger. But if Hamilton's best offer really is for three years at about $27 million per year, and if the Rangers really do want to retain him, then I have to think that they will.
My sense is that the Phillies made their best offer and put it on the table just in case the Rangers really have decided to move on from the player who helped turn their franchise around. Maybe this really does turn out to be the start of a negotiation, but it would require a huge risk on the Phillies part.
Here's why:
The Phillies know that the window for winning a World Series with this current crop of players is no longer than three years. Even with a player like Hamilton, it might only be two years. Between the money they saved last season, the new national television money they will receive, the increase in the luxury tax threshold next season, and the potential of a new local television deal within the next few years, the Phillies have money to spend.
So why not engage in bidding war for Hamilton? To me, 2016 is the key year. That would be the fourth year of any Hamilton deal. It's also the last year of Ryan Howard's contract. They'll be on the hook for $25 million in salary. Howard will be 36 years old. Hamilton will be 35 years old. Plenty of players have remained productive through those ages. But plenty have broken down. And what happens if both players' production suffers a significant drop off between now and then? You can certainly envision a situation in which the Phillies are paying $50 million to two broken down players. And that would be an excellent way to undermine whatever new core of players the Phillies have developed by that point in time.
The worst case scenario is for them to develop a new batch of players and then look at their payroll and say, "Gee, if only we had $50 million to spend on a couple of pieces that we think can push us over the top." Actually, the worst case scenario would involve a Cole Hamels breakdown too, leaving them with $73 million in dead money.
A three-year deal would make sense because the Phillies are built to win now. And if signing Josh Hamilton doesn't result in a World Series, well, they probably weren't going to win one anyway. But in a multi-year deal, every extra year carries with it the risk of disrupting the next window of contention. Which is why I think three years is likely the maximum the Phillies would go. And I'm not convinced that three years will get it done.
But again, I could be missing something.
How about 3 years... $80 million.. And a 1 year supply of crack cocaine? That should get it done...— FetchDixon- If Hamilton signs anywhere for 3 years, the Tonner will give up drinking Genny Cream Ale forever. Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees...one of those clubs will offer a fourth year. And probably a fifth. The Tonner doesn't see the Phils going 4 or 5 years for this dude. Wouldn't be the first time the Tonner was wrong but the Tonner doesn't see that happening this time.
- This is why a guy like Hamilton probably will not come here. The number of purely classless, a__hole fans in the Philly area has to be the highest per capita in the United States. Here is a guy who has fought through severe drug addiction to be an inspiration to so many, but it makes more sense for some peole to mock and ridicule than to support a good man. Pathetic. — SUPERTODD
- Supertodd - Both Brash and well stated. I agree. — hipdaddy
- Soriano isn't worth the trouble. He can't play and he's not a good club house guy.— alihajishank
- Agree. But Ruben loves the old guys.
You would think after watching the Yankees fall apart and looking very old in the playoffs, and after watching the old men in Phillie uniforms nurse injuries all last season, that Rubes would have learned his lesson and maybe tried to move in another direction instead of being a bad Yankee GM impersoantor. Apparently not.
And who wants to watch a bunch of old guys? Part of the fun of baseball is watching a young prospect develop and flourish. Success was built around the fram system. Amaro ignoring youth, and plugging leaks with old guys and retreads has been a failure.— wo_fat - The deal is getting done tonight. You are missing something Mr. Murphy!— passi0natephillyfan
- I received a similar notice from my ESPN news sport app. 3 year deal is very good. Don't forget about the Michael Young connection now. Texas was given a shot to keep him. They are taking the "we'll match whatever offer you get". Maybe, just maybe, Hamilton has decided not to wait around for Texas, seeing Young, Napoli, CJ Wilson, Lee leave in the past two seasons. Anyway, its best to just let things happen and see where they fall. If they get Hamilton, move Dom Brown for a starting pitcher with Ruf in LF. — drhoffman
- based on all that @drhoffman wrote here, he has my vote for next General Manager of the Phils, preferably starting right now.
His rationale for why Hamilton could make this move is quite sound, and his prescription for what to do if Hamilton does come (move lefty-swinging Brown for more pitching, play righty-hitting Ruf in LF) makes complete sense.
Murphy's advice ("forget Josh Hamilton") notwithstanding, it is fun to project a lineup with Young, Hamilton and Michael Young in it, no? Maybe Michael Young hitting 3rd after Chase, right before Howard/Hamilton, followed by Chooch and Ruf.— advantasux - THAT LAST POST SHOULD HAVE READ:
Murphy's advice ("forget Josh Hamilton") notwithstanding, it is fun to project a lineup with Ruf, Hamilton and Michael Young in it, no?— advantasux - Really?? Is it really "best to just let things happen and see where they fall"??? Sounds like drhoffman might really be rube-the-boob. After all, isn't that what Smug Ruben did with the bullpen last season? Just sign over-pay for Pap, get Chad Qualls and keep your fingers crossed. Isn't that what Smug Ruben did with the third-base position? Let Aramis Ramirez go elsewhere and get Thome, Wigginton, and Nix instead. Who cares that there were no 3B availabe in this year's FA class ... Well - we have seen where they have fallen. They are a sub-par team with over-paid "name players" that no other team would touch (IMO - it would be impossible for the Phillies to trade: Howard, Rollins, and Pap) No one wanted Lee at last year's deadline and, because of injuries (admittedly beyond the GM's control), Utley and perhaps Doc are un-trade-able. Thanks Rube. Epic fail ... — Copper34
- Cooper = epic moron — DogBiscuitthedope
- Who is this "Cooper" cat?
— Copper34 - Hoping you are wrong Murph! Sign em for three years and hopefully win 2 more WS...there would be three x Rangers who would be jonesing to get back to the WS! Agree with prior poster about Soriano...hope that does not happen.— Sane1
- I'd rather have Cuddyer. He's a righty and has less risk. Problem is I dont think the Rockies want to give him up and the Phils dont have any players on the farm the Rockies want.— Professor1982
