Why Cliff Lee for Justin Upton would make sense. . .
The first out-of-the-blue rumor bomb just dropped here at the Opryland Hotel, with ESPN's Pedro Gomez reporting that the Phillies are discussing a trade that would send Cliff Lee to Arizona in exchange for Justin Upton.
Why Cliff Lee for Justin Upton would make sense. . .
David Murphy
UPDATE (5:20 p.m.): Ruben Amaro strongly denied the Lee-Upton report, saying "I don't comment on rumors but that one is absolutely and unequivocally false."
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The first out-of-the-blue rumor bomb just dropped here at the Opryland Hotel, with ESPN's Pedro Gomez reporting that the Phillies are discussing a trade that would send Cliff Lee to Arizona in exchange for Justin Upton. Keep in mind that this is still just a bit of gossip forwarded via Twitter, so we don't really have a good handle on how serious things might be.
Still, here is why it would make sense:
The free agent market is ridiculously pricey right now, with reports out of Boston that Shane Victorino has been offered somewhere around three years and 38 million. There simply are no bargains to be had. Even Jonny Gomes signed for two years and $10 million. I'll write more on this later, but I've been doing some crude Consumer Price Index type comparisons between contracts last year and contracts this year, and my current working estimate is that we're seeing between 40 and 50 percent inflation (Example: Cody Ross signed for one year and $3 million last year. Gomes' numbers are similar to Ross'. Gomes landed $5 million per year. That's a 40 percent 60 percent increase over what a similar player received last year in AAV).
At this point, teams are going to overpay at any end of the spectrum. The question is how much do they feel comfortable overpaying. I really get the sense that the Phillies are not in a position to be overpaying anybody. They need value. And Upton represents a value. He has three years and $38 million left on his contract in Arizona. Cliff Lee has three years and $87.5 million remaining. Clearly the Phillies would have to kick in some cash, or prospects, or both. But they'd be saving a ton and addressing a need by adding Upton, and the starting pitching market is one place where prices do not appear to be outlandish. At least there are some options. Like, for example, the Phillies could trade Lee for Upton and then go out and try to land a pitcher like Anibal Sanchez. Or, hell, maybe they make a late entrance into the Zack Greinke bidding. Regardless, pitching is a strength right now for the Phillies. Outfield is a weakness. The outfield market is overpriced. It could make sense to swap a strength to bolster a weakness and save some money to address their other areas of need. Look, Cliff Lee has been everything the Phillies hoped he would be when they signed him. But when they signed him they thought they had a championship caliber lineup. They clearly do not. And given the zaniness of the current market, Ruben Amaro Jr. and company just might have to audible.
- Carlos Quentin definitely. You could also make a pretty good case for both Travis Lee and Rod Barajas.
— s - The market is playing out as I expected. Upton/Pagan/Victorino are being overpaid to play CF. RAJ understands this and won't go there. The Lee for Upton (other Upton) makes no sense at all, if the Phillies intend on competing this season. Based on the National's rotation, moving Lee would make the Phillies rotation 3rd best in the NL east. Time to be smart. Wait out the market for now. Bourn may get the money, but is that all that matter for Bourn? 5-6 years in Cleveland's pergatory? Hamilton will most likely go back to Texas unless (shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh RAJ may have something up his sleeve.) Reality check though, I'd rather have Ruf/Mayberry/Brown than pay a guy like Victorino $13.5 million. His .262 BA is barely better than Mayberry's. Mayberry earn's 1/12 of Victornio yet puts up almost equal numbers. That is the reality of the current free agent market. Just because desperate teams with cash throw it to the wind, doesn't make sound baseball sense. Heard Nate McClouth is looking for a one year deal to re-establish his market value. Could be a possibility too. Time to know when to hold/fold.— drhoffman
- Phillies starters last year tied for the Nats for top WHIP. Other than that they fared no better than 7th in any meaningful category in the NL. They also gave up the most HRs. We can all play the game we played with the position players for years and throw in the old "if healthy" clause but the fact is both Halladay and Lee are probably looking at their better years in the rear view mirror. I'm not saying they can't have great years but we shouldn't get so tied to the idea that this is the top rotation in the league. It WAS maybe. Now is another story. To me, the three and four aces deal was all about a 3-4 year window that's now over. — s
- Ryan - I'm inclined to agree with you. the guy never lost when up that many runs and he blew it. Wonderful pitcher, great control, works fast, etc. BUT he did blow that game and he has been givin a pass on that.
Don't know much bout upton but its a very viable option.— DG3 - The latest is that Texas and Josh Hamilton are making progress in their talks He may end up staying there. Amaro is an a-hole who makes the team worse every year.— Marie Elena
- Upton for Lee - HIGHLY improbable.
Upton for Phils pitching prospects (pick your duo/trio) - quite plausible.
Fowler for Phils pitching prospects (more modest package) - also quite plausible.
You're welcome.— FishFryFrank - Lee for Upton doesn't seem to make any sense for EITHER team. And why would the Phils deal Lee and then try to sign Greinke or Sanchez? With the current market either of those two would make at least what Lee and probably considerably more, but neither of them is as good as Lee. And while Upton would look good in a Phillies uniform, he is a corner OF with only moderate power, worth giving up a bevy of prospects for but not a surefire, top of the lineup ace like Cliff.— Dante1138
- I'm glad to see the Phillies are making the necessary moves to stay competitive with their division rivals. Oh wait. It's the division rivals making all the moves to improve their teams. My bad.— scootch
- It makes no sense to move Lee when you have no idea if Doc can bounce back and be effective next year. I don't care who is in center field, if the rotation is Hamels, Worley and Kendrick and two others not yet known the Phillies simply can not compete with the Nationals and Braves.— DennisAtwell
- God help us there is no truth to this ridiculous rumor.— Sam Crow
- Power on the road in 2012: J.Upton 6HR and 20RBI in just over 300AB. John Mayberry 7HR and 24RBI with just over 200AB.— escapedcamden4monterey
- This reporter is silly and, hell, I can't believe he's still on staff.— Mick40
- Keep Lee. Next time he's up for grabs, he won't surprise us by changing his mind and coming to the Phillies rather than the Yankees. Keep Lee.— RichieLemon
- It makes a lot of sense for the Phillies because Upton is exactly what they need, a very goo young player. Like the article said, the Phillies have to address the OF situation while they can get a good pitcher in free agency. Now, it doesn't make sense for Arizona unless they trade Lee to Texas for Elvis Andrus and one or two of their best prospects no named Profar.— EL Zorro
- Justin Upton at age 24 already has 108 HR. He's just entering the prime of his career an is under team control for the next 3 years at "only'' $38 millions while the Phillies owed the 33-year-old Lee $87.5 million for the same amount of time just to pitch every 5th day. It makes a lot of sense to me getting one of the best young players in the game relatively cheap and under control for the next 3 years for an overpaid veteran who probably saw his best years. Most of you probably forgot Upton hit 31 HR at age 23 a year ago.
— EL Zorro
