Why Cliff Lee for Justin Upton would make sense. . .
The first out-of-the-blue rumor bomb just dropped here at the Opryland Hotel, with ESPN's Pedro Gomez reporting that the Phillies are discussing a trade that would send Cliff Lee to Arizona in exchange for Justin Upton.
Why Cliff Lee for Justin Upton would make sense. . .
David Murphy
UPDATE (5:20 p.m.): Ruben Amaro strongly denied the Lee-Upton report, saying "I don't comment on rumors but that one is absolutely and unequivocally false."
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The first out-of-the-blue rumor bomb just dropped here at the Opryland Hotel, with ESPN's Pedro Gomez reporting that the Phillies are discussing a trade that would send Cliff Lee to Arizona in exchange for Justin Upton. Keep in mind that this is still just a bit of gossip forwarded via Twitter, so we don't really have a good handle on how serious things might be.
Still, here is why it would make sense:
The free agent market is ridiculously pricey right now, with reports out of Boston that Shane Victorino has been offered somewhere around three years and 38 million. There simply are no bargains to be had. Even Jonny Gomes signed for two years and $10 million. I'll write more on this later, but I've been doing some crude Consumer Price Index type comparisons between contracts last year and contracts this year, and my current working estimate is that we're seeing between 40 and 50 percent inflation (Example: Cody Ross signed for one year and $3 million last year. Gomes' numbers are similar to Ross'. Gomes landed $5 million per year. That's a 40 percent 60 percent increase over what a similar player received last year in AAV).
At this point, teams are going to overpay at any end of the spectrum. The question is how much do they feel comfortable overpaying. I really get the sense that the Phillies are not in a position to be overpaying anybody. They need value. And Upton represents a value. He has three years and $38 million left on his contract in Arizona. Cliff Lee has three years and $87.5 million remaining. Clearly the Phillies would have to kick in some cash, or prospects, or both. But they'd be saving a ton and addressing a need by adding Upton, and the starting pitching market is one place where prices do not appear to be outlandish. At least there are some options. Like, for example, the Phillies could trade Lee for Upton and then go out and try to land a pitcher like Anibal Sanchez. Or, hell, maybe they make a late entrance into the Zack Greinke bidding. Regardless, pitching is a strength right now for the Phillies. Outfield is a weakness. The outfield market is overpriced. It could make sense to swap a strength to bolster a weakness and save some money to address their other areas of need. Look, Cliff Lee has been everything the Phillies hoped he would be when they signed him. But when they signed him they thought they had a championship caliber lineup. They clearly do not. And given the zaniness of the current market, Ruben Amaro Jr. and company just might have to audible.
It better be false. I want a refund of my season ticket money if they trade Lee (again). Trade washed up Halladay instead.— Larry Brown- we have the worst gms as a city— passi0natephillyfan
- "But when they signed him they thought they had a championship caliber lineup. They clearly do not." - substitute the word 'pitcher' for 'lineup' and that's Cliff Lee. Spare me what he did in September against minor league callups. The Cardinals shelled him when it counted in the playoffs last year just like San Fran in the World Series the year before. Upton is a 2x All-Star who is 10 years younger, half the price and plays a position of need. I make that trade 7 days out of 7 especially if it gives you the flexibility to fill other holes. Phillies have plenty of pitching in their system
- Hell, why not just pay the money for Hamilton or Bourne and not give up anybody? As long as everybody's overpaying, we might as well get one of the better options. If Vic is worth $13 mil per, Bourne's a steal at 17 or so and Hamilton might be worth $25 or so. Charlie just said he loves him.— cuyatm
- we used to be the team that added a piece like Upton. Now we've become the team that needs to weaken one area to shore up another. We are no longer in the driver's seat to acquire free agents so value-for-value trades all that is left.
Someone else needs to explain how sending Cliff Lee away for Justin Upton helps us close and almost 20-game gap between the Nats and ourselves, and that was prior to the Nats' addition of Denard Span and Dan Haren.
Ruin Tomorrow, Jr. has lived up to his name and then some!— advantasux - Well, the Phillies won 12 games last year that Lee started. Arizona won 73 games that Upton started. Spend the money you save from Lee's contract on bullpen help or somewhere else and that sounds like a good start to me
- Rumors are fun. Amaro worked hard to get Lee twice. I doubt he's looking to dump him. Amaro wants strong starters. That's his plan to be the Braves of the 1990's.— Phillies2008WSChamps
- Murph - Pitching is a strength right now BECAUSE WE HAVE LEE!! Drop Lee from our rotation and who is our #3, 4, and 5? This is a stupid trade and should only happen if we get Greinke FIRST. I would love Upton, but give the Dbacks something else. Lee for Upton is just dumb.— BleedPhilly
- And how many other teams have over $65 mil in payroll committed to 3 starting pitchers? I know it's easy to spend other people's money but you can't pay everybody $20 million. To answer your question you'd still have Hamels and Halladay at the top, Worley and Kendrick in the middle, and they'd almost certainly sign or trade for another starter at least until one of the top minor league arms is ready for the call. What this team needs above all else right now is consistent run production and bullpen help. They used to be constructed to beat teams 8-7, then they tried changing to beat teams 2-1 which obviously hasn't worked. Gotta veer back toward some middle ground and try to bolster other areas that don't involve handing out 9 figure contracts to guys who pitch every fifth day — stikolaboloni
- Another interesting thing here if true is Upton played RF for Arizona. Can he play CF and play it well? IDK. They'd definitely need another starter if they do this, and IDK if Greinke could handle the media pressure here. Sanchez isn't a FA so they'd have to trade for him.
- The same Lee for Upton rumor was out there at the trade deadline. There's probably at least some truth to it. I disagree that the Phillies have pitching strength. They MAY have pitching strength. There are too many question marks. We have no idea if Halladay can bounce back, Worley is coming off surgery and a so-so year before that and we've seen Kendrick's ups and downs as a starter. Hamels and Lee are the two you'd put your money on at this point. On the other hand I've been saying since summer that there's a lot sense in trading Lee if you can get the right piece(s) in return. It's a big salary and a lot of years and you should be able to get a decent younger pitcher with what you save. A lot depends on how much (if any) salary the Phillies would have to eat.
I'm a Cliff Lee fan but if he can get a guy like Justin Upton you have to consider it. Halladay would definitely also have to be considered if anyone was asking but after his questionable 2012 I doubt he's a guy many GM's want to take a chance on. Perhaps at the trade deadline if it's clear he's not coming back in 2014 and he's bounced back and has some value ... depending also on whether the Phillies can be in the race in 2023 at the trade deadline.— s - lol 2013. If we have to wait until 2023 ... well, iI guess it will be like the 70's or something. — s
- No way Amaro trades Lee. Halladay's health is a big question mark and Halladay, not Lee, could be off the payroll in 2014. The smarter play is if Halladay pitches well and we're not contending by mid-season 2013, you trade Halladay as a rent-a-starter -- meaning, you keep Hamels, Lee and Worley entering 2014. As great as he's been, if there's an odd man out in our rotation in 2013 or next off-season, it's Roy Halladay.
— eman - Halladay will not likely meet the incentives needed to land him a 2014 year with the Phillies. So figure he's gone after next year unless he really bounces back and the Phillies extend him. Problem is, either way he's 37 in 2014. The average age of WS pitchers is around 30. And Lee is only 9 months behind Halladay in age. Fans have to face the fact that the window for both guys is about shut and they're both headed for declining years. If you can move one or both you do it and deal with it. If you signed a guy like Sanchez, for example, is there a big (or any) drop-off? Also remember that the Phillies have a lot of young arms and one or two should be big leaguers soon. Pettibone and May could be ready by 2014 or even later in 2013. We should get a good look at both in spring training. — s
- How many hitters can you name who, after being traded away from Arizona, do as well in their next location? I am waiting... That is the answer. Okay, now that the pantry is bare of free-agent center fielders, the Phillies are down to Michael Bourne who will want a trunkful of money. Or, they could go for broke and take a chance on Hamilton. Of course, Bourne may be in a corner because the teams that most needed center fielders have gotten them. He could end up the Ryan Madson of 2012. It is fun watching it play out. Frankly, I haven't seen a single signing that made me wish we had gotten him!— gotedge
