What to expect from Vance Worley?
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What to expect from Vance Worley?
I just finished answering a question for one of the baseball preview magazines that will be hitting shelves over the next couple of months, and because it is one that we have not really addressed here, I figured I'd share.
The question: Was the Vance Worley we saw as a rookie the real deal or will he settle in as more of a mid-rotation starter?
It is easy to forget how integral a role Worley played in last year's 102-win season. Injuries to Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton left the Phillies with a rotation filled with power at the top and uncertainty at the bottom. It never became much of an issue because of Worley, who went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 131 2/3 innings, averaging 8.1 strikeouts, 3.1 walks and 0.7 home runs per nine innings as a 23-year-old.
But it is also easy to forget that Worley ended up in the minor leagues after struggling with his command early on. And as we look toward 2012, that command will hold the key to whether he is able to avoid a sophomore slump and build upon his stellar rookie campaign.
When Worley was promoted to the big leagues, he was projected as little more than a back-of-the-rotation starter or potential bullpen piece. The reason? He lacks a dominant off-speed out pitch. Last year, he was able to rack up strikeouts and hold opponents off the scoreboard because of the way he located his fastball, particularly his sinker.
That's all well and good, but command can be a fickle beast, particularly for a young pitcher without much experience against major league hitters. This year, you can expect opponents to be much more aggressive against Worley. Major league hitters adapt at lightning speed. If Worley can control his pitches the way he did last year, he should be more than capable as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter. But keep in mind that no qualifying National League starter prompted fewer swings-and-misses than Worley: just 10 percent of his strikes were swings-and-misses.
Perhaps more notable is the infrequency with which opponents swung at Worley's pitches. Hitters swung at Worley on just 42 percent of his pitches, the second-lowest ratio among 70 qualifying NL starters, per Baseball-Reference. That helped Worley because his command was so good: 34 percent of his strikes were called strikes, the highest ratio in the NL.
This isn't to say that Worley is destined for a mighty fall. But to avoid a significant drop-off in production, he will have to both maintain his command and adapt to hitters who now have plenty tape to watch.
Really? If he can't command his pitches, his production will fall? Are you talking about Worley or every pitcher in the game? What difference does it make if he fools a hitter with a called strike with late movement or a swinging strike off another pitch with late movement? Ask Greg Maddux about that one.— tommy2times- Tommy2Times, why don't you go check the papers, check the papers? The point Murph is making is that his command is crucial *because he doesn't lack a dominant off-speed pitch*. The control of a sinker is particularly fickle for young pitchers and it can vary from start to start or season to season (see: Kendrick, Kyle, 2008, 2009). The larger point he's making is that advanced metrics--such as his swing-and-miss rate--show that his stuff is average, and because of that, it's even more important for him to adapt. (See Happ, J.A., 2010, 2011).— andrewfrombrooklyn
- lol andrew. Your comment was more thought provoking and logical than most sports articles I see in this paper. Funny, too! You should write. — joeibt
- It's all about movement. I have never seen more movement on a backdoor slider than I saw last year with Worley. His pitch would start just off the plate and move back over the corner freezing a right handed bat or sawing off the bat of a lefty. Vance is the next Greg Maddox. And at 24 years old with his moxie he has the potential be a dominate starter for many years to come.— Dull
- C'mon man. Why do we have to do this with every athlete in this city as soon as he shows a speck of ability? One good year and the guy is already the next Greg Maddox. ReallY?? I doubt Vance's own parents are even that optimistic. Remind you Maddox was already an All-Star at Worley's age and had 4x as many wins under his belt. I like Vanimal and all, but let's call it like it is, the guy is a mid-rotation starter and a solid one at that. He hasn't even pitched half as many innings as Maddox had WINS for his career. Let him do his thing, he might just turn out to be the next Vance Worley
- I'd love to believe Worley might turn into the next Greg Maddox, but if all he becomes is the next Bob Walk, that wouldn't be terrible for a number 5 pitcher. — JoeArtistWriter
- Vanimal comes back to earth...11-9..ERA-3.90/WHIP-1.3..will need to adjust.— Romus
- I have a feeling that Kyle Kendrick will win the Cy Young in 2012!!— FetchDixon
- I am thinking that he will win 12-14 games and lose 8-10 ear of 3.15-3.65 Halladay 21-7 2.11, LEE 20-10 2.95 and Hamels 18-9 2.61 Have a feeling Blanton will end up pitching well this season going 14-10 3.85 but still having tough 1st innings Phillies win 95- 100 games still best team record in the majors. but they get crazy hot in Late Sept and all the way to aWorl Championship! GO PHILLIES— srcdaddy1216
- Interesting that Fetch mentions Kyle Kendrick in his post. In my mind Vance is very similar to Kyle. When Kendrick first came up he did very well and people talked about his pitch command, his toughness, his willingness to go right at hitters - all the same things folks say about Worley. They even have the same pitch, or a similar one, as their bread and butter - the sinker. Problem with Kyle was that once hitters realized he didn't have a major league curve, or over powering heat, they waited on a sinker up in the zone and hit it. Kendrick is still a serviceable spot starter and long reliever, but that appears to be where he has leveled out after a sparking start. Worley is a bit more of a character than Kendrick and does seem to have a bit more movement on his pitches, so hopefully he ends up just a bit better and can be a 4 or 5 in the rotation. We'll see...— topwonk
- Yeah hate to say it but I can't see Vance being any better than a mid-rotation guy. As a number 4 starter there is nothing wrong with him but don't expect an ERA under 3.75 or a whip under 1.25, when you don't have swing and miss stuff it's hard to be consistently successful.
— mdb20 - If he keeps that cut fastball that tails away from lefties, he will have another great year.— amblereagles
- Good column, Murph. Those are really telling numbers - swing-and-misses, called strikes, etc. I'm bullish on Worley, like his stuff and his makeup, but it's hard to imagine he won't take a step back this year. We should be comparing him to other bottom-of-the-rotation guys, and he fares well in such a comparison.— Bobby G
- Pertaining to the swing and miss metric quoted in the article- while a useful and good metric does not always equate to success. In fact, situational pitching to contact has been taught for years. Pitching to contact keeps your count down and allows the pitcher an element of deception in holding back a best pitch for later in a game when you need a strategic strikeout and you can then introduce your best pitch. Pitching to contact early in games has some value, hence the low swing and miss metric may not be that alarming.— Special Agent Fox Mulder
- "ML hitters adapt at lightning speed"....wah? Our hitters? Who? When?....maybe the rest of the league will adapt to Worley...I don't know. What I do know is that pitchers always have the advantage over hitters when they first compete....hitters should not be "surprised" by his quirky delivery or the movement on his pitches this year, so probably not so many called strikes. That can change the outcome substantially. You may not see any better than 10-8 or 8-10 this year. I'd love it if he finished 11-3 again, but I just can't see that happening.— Mark1npt
