What the Mariners' scuttled deal for Justin Upton says about the Phillies' position
By DAVID MURPHY
What the Mariners' scuttled deal for Justin Upton says about the Phillies' position
David Murphy
By DAVID MURPHY
If you are curious why the Phillies have not been mentioned as a serious suitor for the Diamondbacks' Justin Upton, take a look at the package of players that the Mariners were reportedly ready to send to Arizona before Upton scuttled the deal by invoking his no-trade clause.
Taijuan Walker: One of the top prospects in the game, he ranked at No. 20 on Baseball America's Top 100 prior to the 2012 season. A right-handed starter, he does not turn 21 until August.
Nick Franklin: Rated the No. 53 prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to the 2011 season, Franklin spent 2012 at Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .278/.347/.453 with 11 home runs on the season. Most importantly, he can play second base or short stop, and could be ready to contribute at the major league level this season.
Charlie Furbush: A 27-year-old reliever who logged 46 1/3 innings in 48 appearances for Seattle last season, posting a 2.72 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9.
Stephen Pryor: A 23-year-old reliever who appeared in 26 games for the Mariners, posting an ERA of 3.91, 10.6 K/9, 5.1 BB/9, 2.0 HR/9.
Franklin is the key player in all of this, at least when it comes to making sense of the Phillies' position on the trade market. All the reports about Arizona's intentions suggest that the Diamondbacks are looking for a legit middle infielder to be a part of any Upton deal -- they have reportedly been holding out for the Rangers' Jurickson Profar or Elvis Andrus -- and Franklin is that guy. He is near major league ready, has a good ceiling, and is a favorite of scouts. In short, he is the kind of guy that the Phillies just do not have in their system. Perhaps Roman Quinn develops into that guy. But he is still at least two and probably three or four years away from even thinking about the major leagues.
The Phillies could always partner with a third team if they targeted Upton or some other high-priced player, but that third team is probably going to be looking for a blue-chip position player too. Jonathan Singleton was the kind of prospect that would ring a lot of phones, but he went to Houston in 2011 for Hunter Pence.
The Phillies have a potential blue-chip pitcher in Jesse Biddle, but all of their high-ceiling position prospects are at the lower levels of the minor leagues. Which is why a blockbuster deal involving the Phillies is not likely to happen before this year's trade deadline.
Comments (46)
No way I would even THINK about trading Biddle.— DaveCicc- Based on what I've seen, he's the right handed Ryan Howard. STrikes out alot.......— BosoxJohnny
- Hey Biddle Biddle
Juston Upton in the middle
And the fans jump over the moon!
Won't happen. Unless of course MontCo says so.
Is it a full moon?— 24sDad - Justin Upton is not the answer. He is one of the worst defensive outfielders in the league. If he was playing "Beer League" softball, he would be the guy everyone went at. He makes Domonic Brown look like Willie Mays out there... Ok.. maybe that was a slight over exaggeration :)— FetchDixon
- I think some of that is perception because he sometimes dogs it a bit. Less than his brother but that's a knock on him. Defensively he comes in around the middle and most of his defensive numbers put him above average but not great. I think in all areas he comes up better than a guy like Pence. So it's not like there would be a huge drop-off defensively if you're looking at our recent options (Pence and Brown). — s
- I meant any likely drop-off. More than likely we'd get a little better defensively if he played RF. — s
- An outfield that depends on Ruf, Brown, Nix and Mayberry to fill two spots is an outfield that is in trouble. Revere is just a younger Pierre. This could be the worst Phillies outfield we've seen in years. Unless Howard, Utley and Halladay all drink from the fountain of youth and return to their prime, they'll be lucky to finish the year at .500. Where's Wes Chamberlin when you need him?
- Rubin and Charlie will get the team on track.— ricciaje
- The Phillies have the talent in the minors to get Upton but unlike the Mariners they would have had to pay the Luxury Tax for 2013 if they did make a deal for him. Seems like Monty might have finally stood up to Ruben and said "no" forcing him to keep the budget around $170 million going into the season.— Dull
- I like Upton but I was surprised Seattle was going to give that much up for him. Even if we had those pieces the price would have to come down. And I would not trade Biddle.
Is Hernandez that huge a step below Franklin? He's played SS and 2B and he hit .291/.329/.404 at AA/AAA last year. He's definitely got less power and isn't ranked nearly as high. He was ranked the 7th best 2B prospect in 2011 by mlb.com though. If Arizona's price came down you wonder if Hernandez might do it with the right other pieces. Of course then we'd be left with only Galvis if Utley's gone in 2014 unless pick someone up in FA or trade market. You don't hear much about Hernandez these days. Then there's Galvis which I probably wouldn't consider for someone like Upton.— s - Hey Murph,
Based on the mariners package, I think we offer something comparable:
Jesse biddle
Roman quinn
Philippe aumont
Just de fratus
That's our top pitching, infield, and relief prospects ( aumont and de fratus haven shown the ability to effectively perform at the major league level too)
Thats a heck of a package that we could offer in my mind, would you think something like that could get a deal done for upton?— sjuhawk122 - Not your lifetime.
Or mine.
— 24sDad - as I pointed out numerous times before, considering how expensive outfielders are this winter, if instead of trading Pence for close to absolutely nothing last July, is there anyone outside of the Clueless Rube who couldn't get more for Pence than a double A .250 hitting non-prospect?— warbiscuit
- MontCo wanted salary dumped too.
Likely not the best move or non-move but they were desperate at the time to turn things around. Pence was pressing and nearly worthless at that moment.
Desperation is never a good place to be especially if you are needing something in return. Unfortunately now that is where the Phil's have found themselves the last year plus.
Upton would not help this team. And not getting Upton or looking the other way while other teams slobber all over him would be a good non-move too.— 24sDad - There are trades I'd rather have before Upton but, putting cost aside, when you consider that he's the same age as Brown that's quite an upgrade in my opinion.
I liked the idea of Pence to try and get it done in 2011. Beyond that his value was always questionable to me. He stands to make 13-14 million in arbitration which is way overpriced. We probably also didn't get enough for trading him away but that's pretty much how those trade deadline deals go.— s - Upgrade from Brown yes but at a very high cost.
Wouldn't take that gambit.
Had RAJ made this move several months ago at likely less total cost it might've looked intriguing. Now it would be overpaying by 2x.— 24sDad - I agree on the current price (too high). The fact that Seattle was ready to pay it means the price probably won't come down.
I see onthebucks touting Stanton again. If there's any way, yes please! I just don't see it happening but you never know. If Amaro managed to trade for Stanton I could see warbiscuit giving him a big sloppy kiss.— s - The 2012 team played better without Pence than with him, actually, and that was with Halladay on the shelf most of the time. Pence's arbitration figure this year is huge. He's overpriced, given his limitations (plate patience, primarily).— eman
- sjuhawk122 : Why?
Phils have a roster-full of over 30's. How about that trade in reverse?... we need those four kids Mariners were willing to trade, not one Upton. - sju, For the package you've suggested, you better be getting Giancarlo Stanton in return. Upton is an overpaid, overhyped and overrated underachiever. I'd seriously rather stick with John Mayberry if that were my only option.— onthebucks
- I'm not much of a follower of J Upton but when I did see him I thought he was a can't miss star in the making. What happened? Seems both brothers have sabotaged themselves with questions abounding of bad attitudes, etc.... I'll pass on this guy. Let's let the young ones get some experience and look back into any upgrades later on for the outfield.— DelawareRiverRat
- Yeah, there is some of that. onethebuks noted a specific incident when the DBacks played the Phillies. I either missed that or forgot about it but I have seen him dog it at times. I think Justin is better than BJ in that regard.
For me it was always Justin before BJ (when it seemed like the Philles might make that mistake) and don't go overboard on the price. Well, the price is now officially way overboard so I'm much cooler on any Justin Upton trade. If the price dropped, maybe. Right now I'm inclined to go into 2013 with what we have and see how it goes.
— s - wow , rube couldn't even get close to that pkg when he dealt lee ot the M's— psmitty73
- Let’s start the season with what we have; We may get a surprise performance (good rather than bad) from one or two; mid-season we re-assess and adjust. Next season could offer a better free agent/trade market.— terrycindyian
- There's still time for the Phils to make an acquisition before spring training starts. Inexpensive power hitting outfielders who are still available via trade include Garrett Jones, Dayan Viciedo, Michael Morse and Alfonso Soriano. Scott Hairston is still available as a free agent and his asking price has evidently come down from an earlier 3 year at $5 million per year level. The Mets are reported to have recently passed on his request for a 2 year at $4 million per year contract. So, Hairston might also be available. Jones, Viciedo and Morse are exceptional power hitters who are on the trade block because their teams are overstocked in the outfield. The same goes for Soriano who has not drawn a lot of interest n the trade market and who the Phils probably feel will still be available after the season starts. I would not want to see the Phils sell the entire farm for someone like Upton, but I think the Phils could come out on top with reasonable trades for Jones, Viciedo, Morse or Soriano. Hairston would be worth considering for 2 years at $2.5 million a year.— onthebucks
- Some reports still have the Phillies as one of the teams that could land Hairston. He's supposed to decide this week. The Cubs, Yankees and Braves (and Mets, now out) have been mentioned as possible landing spots for Hairston this winter. — s
- Bottom line is simple......Amaro is incompetent (or corrupt) and should be fired for inheriting a championship team and in 4 short years, by 2012, turned it into an embarrassing AAA team but this is what Giles and Monty want and they got what the paid for:-)— daystrum
- I don't agree that it's the worst OF ever....I think after Ruf hits 30 HRs maybe people will calm down a bit. If DBrown can stay off the DL, he may hit 15-20 HRs too and if he can't you still have Nix/Mayberry to plug in there every day. If this team gets ANY play from these guys it's a whole different team. The Upton brothers are in fact just RH versions of RHoward, except one of them can actually catch a ball. Do we need more guys who K 150-200 times a year in this lineup? That wouldn't jive with Amaro's demanding another approach at the plate, would it?— Mark1npt
- Also, bisquick and others keep blaming Amaro for getting nothing for Pence last season compared to what we paid for him or compared to what teams are willing to give for Upton. There are a whole load of variables in play here.
1.The time of year you make the trade, offseason or trade deadline deal? Big cost difference.
2.How desperate is the other team to give? How desperate are you to get? What position is most in demand? Pitching? OFs? Changes every month of every year.
3.Trades seen as salary dumps(Pence) get you back nothing but maybe 1 good player (Joseph) as the other team is assuming the high salary and the higher arbitration salary the following year.
4. Upton commands so much in return because teams are desperate right now for OFs, and he's locked up for another 3 years at less than half of what Victorino is making a year. For that kind of price stability guaranteed, you have to give up the max to get him.
5.What are the economics of your own teams' payroll? How much do you have to dump? How much more can you afford to take on? It gets quite complicated and contrary to fan demand, (mostly liberals from the tone of it) you just can't keep throwing money at a problem to fix it. No business can continue to operate that way. We'd all be bankrupt, much like our country.
— Mark1npt - s --yes, if Rube ever swung a deal for Stanton (currently --not in a few years if for some reason his value declined) I'd eat my several thousand words eviscerating the g.m.'s abilities.... incidentally, I don't believe the Phils entire 40-man roster (excepting Hamels) would be able to bring back a top 5 player like Stanton, so this is as absurd a possibility as saying that if Mike Martinez hits 30 hrs this year and Lannan wins a Cy Young then Rube will have done well... but at least you realize that my issues with Rube are nothing personal, just business, and my strongly-held view that Rube is realy bad at it— warbiscuit
- @marknpt --any way you want to evaluate it, the Pence deals incontrovertibly demonstrate that Rube is incredibly bad at deal-making and evaluating talent --if he were worth 3 top-ranked prospects ( 1 lower-level prospect) in 2010, then how come he's only worth 1 mediocre prospect ( 1 low-level nobody) one year later? he either made a terrible deal in 2010 or in 2011 -- and in actuality he did both.... and as I've noted before none of it would have even been necessary had he simply signed another outfielder to replace Werth before 2010 as every Philly fan and sportswriter expected him to do, and as any other of the 29 g.m.s would have done— warbiscuit
- correct my year references:
@marknpt --any way you want to evaluate it, the Pence deals incontrovertibly demonstrate that Rube is incredibly bad at deal-making and evaluating talent --if he were worth 3 top-ranked prospects ( 1 lower-level prospect) in 2011, then how come he's only worth 1 mediocre prospect ( 1 low-level nobody) one year later? he either made a terrible deal in 2011 or in 2012 -- and in actuality he did both.... and as I've noted before none of it would have even been necessary had he simply signed another outfielder to replace Werth before 2011 as every Philly fan and sportswriter expected him to do, and as any other of the 29 g.m.s would have done— warbiscuit - Blah blah blah. Let this team show its stuff on the field. A good mix of veterans and some young guys out in the outfield who will prove the rest of you wrong. All you want is $20 million dollar players at every position. Ruf is the real deal and by the all star break, when he has 18 HR's, you all will be on the proverbial bandwagon.— drhoffman
- Replacing Brown is not going to turn the Phils into a big winner regardless of who the replacement is. It doesn't make sense to weaken the farm further for someone like Upton...he isn't a difference maker...there is a good chance Brown could out perform Upton.— fafink
Justin Upton is not the answer. Have watched him here in phoenix for years. average baseball player-all of his numbers were down last season. Why do you think the diamondbacks are so eager to get rid of him? Why should the fightin's decimate their minor league prospects and bank account for a mediocre player?- bisquik, I'm not gonna argue with you, I think you just get off on it somehow. Tommy Joseph is hardly a low level nobody. He was the Giants #1 or 2 rated prospect, he was immediately our #1 catching prospect and he has coaches drooling over his tools at all levels. 20 years from now when he has finished a 16 year career as an All Star catcher you will still be saying we got too little for Pence and Amaro is a boob. You have zero credibility saying the same stuff over and over. I for one am never gonna address you again and I am asking all the other people on these boards to ignore you also. It's time to stop feeding the pigeons.— Mark1npt
- @markinpt -- i didn't say Joseph was a "low level nobody"..I said he was a "mediocre prospect" and that the Phils got a "mediocre prospect PLUS a low level nobody" (the plus sign apparently gets struck when posting) for Pence --which is accurate --Joseph is not ranked among top 100 prospects by Baseball America.. by contrast, 3 of the 4 prospects given away by Rube to get Pence were ranked among top 100 prospects.. so it's simple math..if you pay $100 for Player X and then sell Player X for $10 then you either overpaid or undersold and in either event you're out $90..if yoou weren't such a moron yourself you'd have been able to do addition and subtraction yourself— warbiscuit
- and if you're "drooling over" Joseph and expecting him in "20 years from now when he has finished a 16 year career as an All Star catcher" then it sounds like you too may be qualified to join the Phils front office --they apparently have quite a few imbeciles like you who failed arithmetic— warbiscuit
- We traded Pence to leave room for getting better eventually. Trade Singleton for Pence, dump Pence, and then trade everyone else for a guy who may not be better than Pence?
Pence (career):
.285/.339/.475/.813
6 seasons--18.1 WAR
29 years old
Eligible for arbitration next year then free
Upton (career):
.278/.357/.475/.832
6 seasons--13.1 WAR
25 years old
Contract
2013 $9,750,000
2014 $14,250,000
2015 $14,500,000
— CallisonTaylorRojas - It's a good point when you put it like that. The more you look at that salary rise in 2014/2015 the worse Upton looks. Pence also has more HRs and RBIs in the same number of years.
Upton has 700 less PA's in the same time period (he played less than Pence early on). So that's a small part of it. And you'd have him younger and locked up for more years than Pence.
Nice comparison.— s - Alphonso Soriano is perfect for this ball park and fits nicely behind Ryan Howard,....Soriano for LF— SyddBarrett
- @daysrum -- as crtical as I'd like to be towards Phils ownership too, the bottom line is that they gave Rube a $170million/yr budget and he p@#ed it away, so it's hard to criticize ownership for being "cheap" --just for being incredibly stupid and continuing to retain the incompetent Clueless Rube --if you subtract just 2 of Rube's most egreious misallocation of funds -- $125mil for a non-hitting over-the-hill d.h. and $50 mill on a choking non-reliable closer -- you'd have another $175 million right there to have spent on quality... all the top teams in baseball, other than Yanks and Dodgers still have budgets far far far below the Phils --and even the Yanks are being more conservative (while the Dodgers are in the midst of their nutty spending spree which may or may not work)... problems with Rube are infinite, including the fact that after over-spending on "names" who aren't worth anythig close to what he paid (Howard, Papelbon, etc) , whne he then tries to get "low risk high reward" players he has such little ability to evaluate talent that he strikes out practically 100% of the time and just gets useless trash that nobody wants (Aaron Cook, Dontrelle Willis, Pineiro, Rodrigo Lopez, etc --all laughable)— warbiscuit
I would try to come up with a package for a couple of the players the Mariners were willing to part with somehow. Perhaps one involving Freddy Galvis? See if they can get Franklin & Furbish. The reliever would help and Franklin seemsto have some "pop" in his bat & could be groomed to replace the aging Rollins or Utley eventually. Upton seems an enigma to me & though I'd like to see what he could do in CBP I am hesitant to part with the kind of money it would take to gain a guy who seems to "drift" at times.— Edwin H.- More old news to fill space. Fire all the reporters, and hire some professionals, not hacks !— phineas
- what did we get for pence again?— robinlupe
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