What is so wrong about the Rollins contract?
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What is so wrong about the Rollins contract?
David Murphy
Among the litany of complaints that I have heard about this Phillies team, the one that confuses me most involves the four-year, $38 million deal that Jimmy Rollins signed this offseason. I expounded on that confusion in today's Daily News, which you can read here. Now is an interesting time to have this discussion, because the last time the Phillies played the Dodgers, Rollins was also a focal point. It was early June, and Rollins was coming off an awful two-month start to the season. The start of a four-game home series against the Dodgers brought plenty of questions from reporters about whether Rollins should continue to leadoff, or whether Juan Pierre should assume those duties. They were legitimate questions at the time. So were the questions about Rollins' contract when he signed it.
What I don't understand is how anybody can look at anything that has happened since both of those occasions and use it to denigrate Rollins.
On June 5, I wrote a column defending Rollins, pointing out that he usually hits well after June 1 and that Pierre lacked the power the Phillies needed in their lineup. Since that day, Rollins has hit .292 with a .354 on base percentage, a .569 slugging percentage, and seven home runs in 158 plate appearances. Pierre, meanwhile, has hit .277/.313/.383 with one home run in 102 plate appearances. Rollins has outperformed Pierre in every major category, yet some still think Pierre is more valuable to the Phillies' offense. Same goes for Freddy Galvis. Can somebody explain to me what, exactly they saw out of Galvis that makes them think that he would not be a huge offensive liability next season? In 200 plate appearances this season, Galvis hit .226 with a .254 on base percentage. Every time he stepped to the plate, he had a 75 percent chance of making an out. That matters. I understand the appeal of Galvis' defensive prowess and youthful exuberance. But you gotta hit.
My bigger point, though, is that Rollins is not as overpaid as you think he is.
Over the last two years, eight shortstops have signed multi-year deals worth at least $7 million per season. Here is how their current numbers compare:
| Player | Total $ | Years | AAV | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Derek Jeter | 51 | 3 | 17.0 | 407 | .306 | .351 | .407 | .758 | 7 | 26 | 50 |
| Jose Reyes | 106 | 6 | 17.7 | 401 | .264 | .335 | .374 | .709 | 3 | 22 | 43 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 38 | 4 | 9.5 | 396 | .262 | .317 | .421 | .739 | 9 | 34 | 52 |
| J.J. Hardy | 22.5 | 3 | 7.5 | 393 | .216 | .255 | .373 | .628 | 13 | 34 | 42 |
| Rafael Furcal | 14.0 | 2 | 7.0 | 393 | .275 | .338 | .360 | .697 | 5 | 37 | 56 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 32.5 | 4 | 8.1 | 355 | .263 | .284 | .337 | .621 | 2 | 44 | 32 |
| Erick Aybar | 40.1 | 5 | 8.0 | 335 | .267 | .305 | .383 | .688 | 2 | 44 | 31 |
The question isn't even which one of those hitters you would rather have, because Furcal and Reyes were the only ones available this offseason. The question is who is going to take the place of Rollins if you trade him away. And we haven't even mentioned the elite level defense he continues to provide.
I'm not arguing that it is a great contract. But it certainly looks better than Reyes', Ramirez's or Aybar's. Long story short, you sometimes have to overpay at premium positions. After all, there is a reason they are considered "premium."
Jim Rollins one of the best but never got near his potential as a player. It is annoying that he doesn't run balls out and took the week before the all star break as a dove taill to a vacation. He can get hot and make the difference though.— Stang59- Here is another thing to keep in mind (and why I think his contract made sense). Going into this year we knew Howard was out for a while, we knew Utley was at best declining significantly, and we knew this offense has truly not been the same since Werth left. With that being said could you imagine the backlash Amaro would have taken if he let Jimmy walk, had Galvis hitting sub 200s and the phillies had the start they did. Remember the offense the first 1 1/2-2 months this year?? Knowing this team needed offense how do they NOT sign Jimmy this offseason? Its easy to overlook that but the Phils needed every offensive piece possible going into this year.— philsfan in the atx
- Rollins is 33 and has had trouble staying on the field the last few seasons and has had some terrible seasons. It's a little disingenuous to wait for him to have a hot streak to start making comparisons. For example, I have a lot more tolerance for a rookie having a .254 OBP in a partial season than I do with a 30 year old former MVP finishing his most recent injury free season with a .296 OBP. That's without even considering the money.— jtj06
- To all sabremetric nerds who think Rollins is not a good lead-off hitter: A good lead-off hitter's objective is to put himself in position to score runs. Because of his high percentage of extra base hits, Rollins puts himself frequently in a good position to score runs. Therefore, he doesn't have to hit .300 with 100 walks. I will admit that he needs to be around .270 for this to hold true, and his extra base hits have been a little down this year, but if he stays hot he will finish the year, once again, in the top third of all lead-ff hitters in MLB. Coupled with his solid defense, and being the best SS in Phillies history and World Series winner, and the constant criticism of him is mind boggling. Crawl back to your caves!— JD5
- Tell Jimmy to run! That's all . . . just run. When he hits the ball . . . run! He'd be a hero in this town if he just showed consistent effort over his career. Drives me nuts, RUN! It's the easiest thing in Baseball!— Wheelermustgo
- Blow this team up please. They are mostly has-beens with a few mediocre players thrown in the mix. And please fire RAJ and Charlie too. this win streak shouldn't fool anyone- this team sucks.— Fly Guy
- "Jim Rollins one of the best but never got near his potential as a player. It is annoying that he doesn't run balls out and took the week before the all star break as a dove taill to a vacation."
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Anybody know what Stang is talking about here on taking the week before the all star break?
Also, how does he know what Rollins' potential was?— schmenkman - "My bigger point, though, is that Rollins is not as overpaid as you think he is."
In the context of MLB free agency, he's not overpaid, period. Rollins pro-rated salary so far this year is $6.2 M. His production so far (in terms of $/WAR) costs considerably more to replace on the free agent market.— conceptual_bro - conceptual_bro -- exactly. He'll earn much more than the $11 mil this year. It's reasonable to assume he'll decline and will likely earn less than $11 by year 4. But overall it's a very fair contract.— schmenkman
- Earlier in the season while the Phils were lifelessly burrying themselves, a frustrated Charlie Manuel lamented to the press about players signing big contracts and then not caring about the game, not hustling etc...
Coming from a someon who's such a "player's" manager like Charlie, it was quite a profound statement.
The stats you put up were interesting, but who do YOU think Charlie was talking about?
Stats are only part of the story.— andyd - The problem with Rollins' deal is that this is a team butting against the luxury tax with significant other needs. The money could have been better spent. The problem with your comparison is that it's a half season. And the problem with your analysis s that you CHEATED. The Rollins' deal is 4/$44 because the option will almost certainly vest. You obviously know this, but it doesn't help your case so you took the weasel's way out and ignored it.— user1796
- ok, ok, you wrote about it yesterday. enough already. bottom line is, we needed a Leader to keep us out of a hole and he did nothing. i know i'll never look at him the same way. all i've heard over the years is the team goes as j-roll goes. there you have it, when it's his team, they fall to last place. he's awesome when everything is going great. the leaders are back, let's see what happens.— spittooncj
- - - just think.... his annual average eats up about 1/3 of howard's -
i don't recall howard saying in '07 we are going to make it...
i do recall howard going in WS: 44 AB's - 22 K's
rollins is on cruise control - had one of the best offensive years in mlb history 2007, leadoff guru - past tense, solid glove, ws champ...
guaranteed contracts - mostly all of them do.
perhaps the resentment comes from that the market never tested him - or viceversa - and charlie does not move him into 7th slot— LivePhilly_DiePhilly - Rollins is 33 and has put up diminishing stats over the past two years. What makes Murphy believe he'll return to his former play? With Freddy Galvis at S/S, and new studs at 3rd and 2nd via trades the Phillies could be a contender for 2013 and beyond.— 1republican
- West Coast road trips means I have to stay up late to catch Wheels and his tales about the old duck pond back in Newtown Square.— Knut
