Manuel seems to know what all of us do: The Phillies just aren't a good team right now
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Manuel seems to know what all of us do: The Phillies just aren't a good team right now
David Murphy
As I wrote in today's Daily News and Inquirer, Charlie Manuel is a guy who finds it hard to mask his true emotions, and yesterday those emotions were apparent in his voice, which steadily developed a tone of frustration and anger and defiance during his post-game news conference at Citizens Bank Park. It was the second straight day that Manuel stole the show in his briefing, the second straight day when he all but laid his true feelings about his team bare. Most times, Manuel's press conference is a mish-mash of unusable quotes from a man who really doesn't want to tell you what he really thinks about the things you are asking. This often leaves fans with the impression that their bumbling manager cannot string together coherent thoughts. In reality, Manuel knows that expressing coherence about whatever he is truly thinking could result in a sound byte that compounds whatever struggles his team needs to break out of. He is like Andy Reid in the sense that he willingly takes the heat for his players when they are going through one of baseball's inevitable rough patches, because he knows that if they are left alone for long enough, they will break free of the skid and make him look competent again.
But Manuel is unlike Reid when it comes to hiding the true feelings that the words coming out of his mouth might repress. And if you are willing to afford me an educated bit of conjecture, I have gotten the sense since spring training that he knows he does not have a very good baseball team. Certainly, he did not expect three of his top four starting pitchers to spend time on the disabled list. He did not expect Justin De Fratus and Mike Stutes to go down with injuries, depleting his bullpen depth before the season was even a few weeks old. Certainly, he expected that Shane Victorino would hit a bit better than his current .249/.319/.406 line, as would Jimmy Rollins and his .251/.301/.648 line.
But I got the sense that Manuel knew two things: the Phillies were taking a huge risk by entering the season with the melting pot of John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix and Juan Pierre in left field, and that the power the team had lost in the offseason in the form of Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez had not been adequately accounted for. He said all of the right things, expressed all of the optimism that he prides himself on, but deep down inside you could tell that Manuel was concerned that he needed to win by playing a style of baseball that his team simply was not equipped to play.
Over the last two months, that frustration has built and built and built and now the Phillies are losers of six straight games and they are three games under .500 and four games behind the next-worst team in the National League East. And they are headed on a nine-game interleague road trip, starting with six teams who you would normally pencil them in to beat. Depending on what happens over this next week, things could get really ugly. Or the Phillies could once against surface for air, and rattle off a winning streak that noses them back over .500, and keep alive the hope that they will still be alive when they hope their reinforcements will arrive.
Either way, the Phillies are who they are. This is a conclusion I first reached on May 7, after that 9-3 win over the Nationals when Cole Hamels pegged Bryce Harper in the back.
That night, I wrote:
The Nationals are in first place, the Phillies are in last, and both teams spent the last 3 days proving themselves worthy of their designations. At this point, the Phillies' victory should be regarded as little more than a footnote. In the first series of the season between the two teams, the Nationals not only won two out of three, but showed themselves to be everything that the Phillies once were. A team that runs the bases with intelligent abandon. A team that boasts one of the strongest bullpens in the game. A team that plays with an infectious energy capable of revitalizing a long-suffering fan base. The Phillies? They are a .500 baseball team. Accept it now, and the rest of the month might not feel like a 25-day punch in the gut.
Exactly one month later, all of that remains true (although I still believe, as I have since spring training, that the Marlins are the biggest threat to replace the Phillies as NL East champs). Yesterday, Manuel mentioned the energy that I mentioned in Washington and that Marcus Hayes mentions in his column today, where he says that the Phillies aren't having fun anymore. Problem is, when you focus on something so abstract as "having fun" as the problem, you can get tricked into believing that there is a remedy, as if all the Phillies really need is a team-building field trip, like that time the Mighty Ducks flipped the finger to The Man and hit the streets of L.A. for some good old fashioned pick-up roller hockey.
The truth is that Ty Wigginton and Mike Fontenot and Juan Pierre and Hector Luna and John Mayberry Jr. (none pictured) can head out to Pennsport and play all the stickball they want, but they are still going to be Ty Wigginton and Mike Fontenot and Juan Pierre and Hector Luna and John Mayberry Jr.
Fontenot has eclipsed 400 plate appearances once in his career, in 2009, when the Cubs won 83 games. The only year that Pierre has appeared in the postseason since he did so with that 2003 Marlins team is 2009, when he logged the second-fewest plate appearances of his 11 full seasons in the majors. Wigginton has logged at least 429 plate appearances every season since 2006, but he has never appeared in the postseason. When Chad Qualls pitched for the playoff-bound Rays in 2010, he was the sixth or seventh option in a bullpen that featured set-up men Joaquin Benoit (11.2 K/9, 1.34 ERA) and Grant Balfour (9.1 K/9, 2.28 ERA) along with veteran lefty specialist Randy Choate (8.1 K/9, 4.23 ERA).
This isn't evidence that suggests these players having a losing mentality. It is evidence they are good enough to play regularly for second-division teams, but lack the all-around ability necessary to earn a regular spot in a championship lineup. In Thursday's loss to the Dodgers, all of them were in the lineup.
The reason why Manuel's voice has taken on such a strong tone of urgency is that he knows that this current Phillies skid is different from those that plagued the 2009 team, which lost six straight games and hovered around .500 in mid-June, and the 2010, which was seven games out of first place in late-July. Those teams weren't playing up to their potential. Those teams had players like Ryan Howard and Chase Utley and Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez, all of whom could either reach base with regularity or change the outcome of a game with one swing of the bat or, in most cases, both.
As I write in today's piece for the newspaper, this Phillies team is only living up to its potential. You can point to the fact that Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino have produced less than their recent track records suggest they will. But Carlos Ruiz has produced well more than his recent track record suggests, and everybody else is essentially right on target. Hunter Pence is hitting .266/.331/.485 with 13 home runs. His performance over the previous three seasons suggests he should be hitting .293/.347/.478 with nine home runs. Placido Polanco is hitting .289/.318/.374. From 2009 through 2011, he hit .287/.335/.377.
To drive this point home, take a look at the 13 hitters who were active at the start of this week, before Jim Thome and Michael Martinez joined the fray. From 2009 through 2011, those hitters batted .271 with a .323 on base percentage and .408 slugging percentage for a .731 OPS. Through 59 games this season, those 13 players are batting .278/.321/.413 for a .734 OPS.
From 2009-11, those 13 hitters averaged a home run every 46.5 plate appearances. This season, they are exceeding that mark, averaging a home run every 40.7 plate appearances. From 2009-11, those 13 hitters averaged an extra base hit every 13.7 plate appearances. This season, they are averaging an extra base hit every 14.2 plate appearances. They are walking less (one every 13.7 PAs from 2009-11 compared with one every 14.2 PAs in 2012) and striking out more (one every 8.1 PAs compared with one every 6.8 PAs).
For the most part the production of this Phillies offense is exactly what recent history suggested it would be.
Over his last 35 games, a stretch in which the Phillies are 17-18, Rollins is hitting .268/.325/.392 with three home runs for a .717 OPS. Victorino over his last 35 games is hitting .263/.349/.429 with three home runs for a .777 OPS. The Phillies are 16-19 over that stretch. Both Rollins' and Victorino's batting lines are almost exactly in line with the numbers they posted over the previous three seasons.
So again, the question: where, exactly, is the improvement supposed to come from? The best chance, perhaps the only chance, is that Pence and Victorino conjure up a stretch of dominance like the ones they produced last season, and the rotation does likewise, and Carlos Ruiz continues to play like the best-hitting catcher in the majors and Jimmy Rollins continues to do what he has done over the last couple of weeks.
At this point, the hope of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard galloping to the rescue is little more than an illusory oasis in the desert. Yes, they appear to be making progress, but that progress is still limited to the fact that one of them is running the bases and both of them are fielding ground balls without the assistance of a stool. Yes, they are hitting live pitching, but they are doing so against pitchers who are not good enough to be playing in low-A ball.
One of the first signs of Manuel's trepidation about the viability of his team came in early spring training, when he repeatedly refused to rule out the possibility of Howard returning in time to play on Opening Day. Later, he repeatedly spoke of a belief that Utley would not miss much time at all with his chronic knee condition.
To an objective observer, one whose perception of both players' health conditions was not skewed by his vested interest in the most favorable of outcomes, Manuel was clearly thinking wishfully. And it was not hard to deduce that he was doing so because he knew that the Phillies were ill-prepared to deal with any other outcome. Which made his comments after Wednesday's loss to the Dodgers so notable. A reporter asked the manager whether the recent progress made by Utley and Howard was cause for hope. Manuel scoffed.
"Those guys, they hit in a game today," he said. "They didn't play. There's a difference in that."
You get the feeling that the words Manuel has spoken over the last 48 hours are the words of a man who realizes he can no longer fool himself or anybody else into thinking that the Phillies are simply an underachieving squad that needs to break out of an extended slump.
The scary thing, at least when you look at the roster and then at their six-game deficit in the standings, is that they might actually be overachieving.
These kind of situations are where managers are supposed to earn their money. How do you get guys to play over their heads? You give them regular roles and show faith in them. Where do you find improvement? Your best bet is that younger players might develop. Prior to the season it was clear that this team would be weak unless the rotation had simultaneous career years again or unless their only under-30 talent- Galvis, Mayberry, Brown- turned in to star players. Nix, Wiggington, Polanco, Rollins et.al. aren't getting any younger or better. But Manuel doesn't have the guts to stand up for a young player and give them a chance to bloom. Mayberry has been awful this year, but he was great in 2011. It could be that Charlie demoting him the first time his average went below .250 (game 8) had something to do with that. Charlie clearly isn't earning his money and he is being outclassed by Mattingly and Davy Johnson, who have been able to win in similar circumstances.— jtj10- I don't buy the hitting numbers. They rarely get the clutch hits.
Yesterday was 10 hits...all singles and 3 runs. While the bullpen
is a mess, the phils have no power. They rarely get 3 hits in one inning, they don't walk much. Running the bases and fielding has been an adventure at times.
Charlie needs to be more defensive minded when the team has a lead. He's easily blown 3 or 4 games. The hitting is awful. You would expect more from pence Victorino and rollins but they've all folded
without Ryan and Chase. Chooch has stepped up along with PIerre.
The phils have wasted many excellent starting pitching efforts but not scoring at all. Rueben needed to take the rollins money and get a hitter...and take a rental for short for a year. Galvis although his average is not high has more doubles and has driven in more runs than Rollins. Freddie's defense has been spectacular.
Let Polanco and Blanton go at the end of the year. If you don't sign Hamels, you'll need to trade him to get something back. If they do need to trade Cole, they will send him to the AL. If you let hamels go to free agency, the dodgers will offer him more money than anyone else might.
Mayberry needs to play for a month to see if he can hit. Charlie has bounced him around because he needed Pierre. Pierre, wigington, nix and fontenot are all subs. Thome shouldn't be on the team. Ibanez has 9Hr and 24 rbis for the yanks which the phils could use right now.
Raul getting 1.1 M and phils getting nothing from thome at 1.5
You don't know if Chase can play anymore. Will he give you enough to bring him back in 2013. Don't know yet but I don't like the fact that both knees are now effected. It may make sense to trade chase to the AL. The Phils need to get some players who can hit the ball and move runners. The current lineup doesn't make a pitcher work much and often are easy outs.— Fan74 - This lineup wouldn't even be a good Triple A team.— gordon7
- here's another huge problem. Only Kansas city, minnesota and seattle have a worse home record than the phils. The phils at 178M have the worst home record in the nl at 12-19. They suck at home.— Fan74
- If blame is to be sent it should be sent to Amaro. He put this lousy team together and even coming in to the season they didn't look like division champs again. Then you add to the equation that 3 top all stars are hurt in Utley, Howard, and Halladay and we have what we have today. This bumbling bunch of misfits couldn't hit if their lives depended on it and the poor record is no fault of Charlie's. Blame Rube the Boob. He brought in Scwhimer and Qualls and a host of others who can't pitch. He DID NOT bring in Cliff Lee because Lee did that all on his own. Amaro should be the one to go the same route as Joe Banner.— erniebanks14
- Joseph Stalin used to quote his own writings also. The overall effect is about the same.— orange rhino
- 1.) This team is absolutely not playing up to it's potential - regardless of the injuries. There is no reason not to expect this team to play .500 baseball until utley and Howard return.
2.) This team would be playing .500 baseball if not for the poor managerial performace of Cholly.
that Cholly has to go is obvious.— majpooper - manuel must go, i've been saying since 2008 they've won inspite of of him. he's a terrible mgr. and always has been. if he puts qualls in one more time he should just check himself into a mental hospital.— sgamble077
- The more long term mistake made was resigning Rollins - he is going to be a financial albatross on this francise for years to come regardless of how he does the rest of this year. I don't see any other team taking this has been off our hands regardless of the amount of his contract that the Phillies would be willing to eat.
Truly a mind boggling blunder.
I AM CONFIDENT IN SAYING THAT THERE WAS'NT A TEAM WILLING TO GO BEYOND TWO YEARS TO GET ROLLINS LAST FALL.
I would really like to know what the Phillies were thinking - Everybody said Galvis was ready or close to being ready and they go out and resign Rollins for 4 years. What sense does that make ?
What did they plan on doing with Galvis ? Sit him on the bench for four years.
I sure hope the Phillies don't plan on having Rollins mentor Galvis. That lazy slouch would ruin any promising athlete.
— candidly - Murph,
This is the second article you have written this week defending Manuel. What are you on his payroll? He is the manager or boss of the team. He needs to be held accountable. He has lost at least 6 games this year with his gut feelings. Why can't he get them to take a pitch of run the bases? Look at the junk the Mets are running out ever day! They play hard and win a few. Look at the injuries the Nats have. Old uncle Charlie needs to go.— Ssteve115 - Longtime Fan I take exception when you say that Charlie did not put the team together. I can continue you he had signicant input into who is on the team this year. Let's start with Jim Thome you think maybe he had some say in getting Thome back?— gates2012
- Fans, an injury often incapacitates. Several injuries may incapacitate a lot. The Phillies are inflicted with many injuries. Many of the posters seem to have undergone brain injuries.— 2smart4philly
- Thanks for this informative article about the Phils' woes. The stats are revealing. I wonder if Amaro the 'vision' needed to build a winner? I'm not an expert. I posted a simplistic article on my blog with related thoughts: thewildhorselives.wordpress.com/2012/05/24/the-downward-spiral— cjhj818
- nydb -- everything i say should be etched in stone since it seems that there are only 2 or 3 of us who said the entire offseason exactly what was gong to transpire with this joke of a team compiled by Rube while imbecilc fans and jouralists were universally predicting ing a first place finish and comntinuing to idolize the dumbest g.m. im sports— warbiscuit
- isn't Murphy the same idiot who argued that keeping Rollins at lead off was a good thing?— wxdavid
