Vance Worley will take it -- the Phillies line-up won't
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Vance Worley will take it -- the Phillies line-up won't
Two notes this morning:
1) Vance Worley struck out six batters last night, all of them on called third strikes. In spring training, we wrote about Worley's ridiculous ratio of called strikes last season. Well, his ratio is even more ridiculous this season. After last night's performance -- his third outing of 6+ innings and 1- run, by the way -- Worley has recorded 67 percent of his 27 strikeouts on called third strikes.
That puts him at the top of the league, which is where he finished last year:
% of strikeouts looking, NL starters
1. Vance Worley, PHI - 67
2. James McDonald, PIT - 50
3. Kyle Lohse, STL - 50
4. Chris Capuano, LAD - 50
5. Ross Detwiler, WSN - 47
Worley also ranks first in the percentage of his strikes that are called strikes:
% Called Strikes/Total Strikes, NL starters
1. Vance Worley, PHI - 38
2. Erik Bedard, PIT - 37
3. Trevor Cahill, ARI - 35
4. Kyle Lohse, STL - 35
5. Joe Blanton, PHI - 34
The Phillies will face Cahill this afternoon as they try to win their first series in Arizona since 2009. Which brings us to our next topic...
2) The Phillies line-up doesn't take many strikes. Actually, it doesn't take many pitches, period. Phillies hitters have seen an average of 3.66 pitchers per plate appearance this season, the lowest average in the NL. They have swung at 48 percent of the pitches they have seen, the second-highest ratio in the NL. If the Phillies' approach sometimes feels formulaic -- take the first pitch, just because, and then release the hounds -- the numbers support that notion. They've swung at only 23 percent of first pitches this season, tied for 14th in the NL. But after the first pitch, they aren't exactly discerning. In fact, as you can see in the table below, Phillies hitters see three-ball counts less often than any other team in the league. And when they do get a three-ball count, they take ball four less often than all but one other team. In both cases, the team next to them in the standings is the Pirates, which is also the only team that has scored less runs than them. Coincidence? You decide.
|
Rk |
Team |
G |
3-Ball % |
3-Ball Walk % |
TPA |
3-Ball Counts |
BB |
|
1 |
NYM |
17 |
24.38% |
42.95% |
640 |
156 |
67 |
|
2 |
ARI |
18 |
24.33% |
37.80% |
674 |
164 |
62 |
|
3 |
HOU |
18 |
22.24% |
44.03% |
715 |
159 |
70 |
|
4 |
LAD |
18 |
21.40% |
45.83% |
673 |
144 |
66 |
|
5 |
SDP |
18 |
21.32% |
50.00% |
666 |
142 |
71 |
|
6 |
STL |
18 |
21.00% |
42.18% |
700 |
147 |
62 |
|
7 |
WSN |
17 |
20.79% |
48.91% |
659 |
137 |
67 |
|
8 |
MIL |
18 |
20.61% |
38.97% |
660 |
136 |
53 |
|
9 |
ATL |
18 |
20.17% |
43.17% |
689 |
139 |
60 |
|
NL |
TOT |
276 |
19.76% |
43.02% |
10473 |
2069 |
890 |
|
10 |
COL |
16 |
19.44% |
39.83% |
607 |
118 |
47 |
|
11 |
MIA |
15 |
19.06% |
42.48% |
593 |
113 |
48 |
|
12 |
CHC |
18 |
16.97% |
41.96% |
660 |
112 |
47 |
|
13 |
SFG |
16 |
16.69% |
46.36% |
659 |
110 |
51 |
|
14 |
CIN |
17 |
16.64% |
50.00% |
661 |
110 |
55 |
|
15 |
PIT |
16 |
15.47% |
34.88% |
556 |
86 |
30 |
|
16 |
PHI |
18 |
14.52% |
35.42% |
661 |
96 |
34 |
Good breakdown...confirms what many of us believe from our personal sniff test.— joeinboston- I have seen this in past years and this year is more pronounced. A large part of the Phils problem is pressing and going out of the zone to make something happen. Worse now because pitchers are not worried about walking guys with the lack of power in the lineup. When the Phils get in gear it starts with forcing pitchers to throw strikes up and down the lineup. They need to get that going and just trust the next guy will get the breakthrough hit.— mmac
- MMAC, great post. Good insight. I'd add that I wish they'd wait on some pitches and push the ball the other way. Looks as though some of them want to pull everything. Especially Mayberry. He can't hold up even if the pitch is high and tight. Kinda dangerous.
And someone oughta punch Jimmy in his Labrum. it might help. :)— zubzub - I've been saying this and seeing this for years. Jimmy first pitch popup, Victorino first pitch popup, Pence first pitch ground out/popup. I know Pence is fairly new and typically he makes good contact, but stay in there for a few pitches. It always leaves me shaking my head when the opposing pitcher will get out of an inning on 6-9 pitches while the Phillies just walked in after a 15-20 pitch inning. A guy like Pierre works the count most of the time and he has good avg and OBP to show that patience and plate discipline can be a good thing.— JAG27
- Is this the new kind of "approach" that Amaro was talking about at the end of last season?— Mark1npt
- Worley continues to surprise hitters with both the movement on his pitches and his odd mechanics. They simply don't pick the ball up on him quickly enough. As long as he keeps with the hard stuff he'll keep getting called strikes.— Mark1npt
- Worley continues to surprise hitters with both the movement on his pitches and his odd mechanics. They simply don't pick the ball up on him quickly enough. As long as he keeps with the hard stuff he'll keep getting called strikes.— Mark1npt
- So much for telling the veterans to change their approach. What do Charlie/Gross do now? Tie one of the batter's hands behind his back for the first three pitches of the AB?— Dave Clemens
- raise your hand if you "didn't" expect the philles at the bottom of the "taking pitches" chart... just as i thought, no hands. now raise your hand if you really believed all the BS about "changing the approach" that was being spread around at spring training... again, no hands. it's not going to change; it's who they are. listen to jimmy and shane, and even charlie, talk...they keep saying they aren't worried (personally, i think they should be, at least a little)...in their minds they still think it's 2008 and they're going to score 900 runs. the bottom line is if the manager doesn't set a direction, it's every man for himself, and that what this is. too bad a real manager wasn't available when they hired charlie; oh wait, they did interview leyland and passed.... i still shake my head at that decision.— nyphilliephan
- So why doesn't the "hitting guru" manager do something about this? Oh right because he's a horrible manager (despite what his Phillies career record is). Nice summary table but if you watch the games this was obvious. Cholly should challenge the team and the most offending players (Rollins, Victorino, & Pence) to take a minimum of 3 2-0 and 3-1 pitches every game.— homerjay99
- ironically, Jayson Werth, who we let go, has consistently been in the top few players in NL in Pitches per Plate Appearance. Oops...— kilo_005
- He always has...he knows his strike zone. — bearsfriend
- Swing at strikes, take balls...One could argue that Mayberry Jr's gibbest problem (above the rotating batting stances) has been consistently being in pitcher's counts, as he often falls behing looking at fastball down the middle for strike 1...Don't take pitches for the sake of taking pitches...their not good enough to get by with that....i still believe breaking balls should get thrown more in practice...Use a different arm every day...75 mph belt high isn't going to make em better, nor is GG's approach.— bearsfriend
- What a minute, I thought Amaro said this team was going to take a new approach at the plate this year and Manuel was going to make sure it happens. Next thing you know they're going to tell you Utley will be ready on opening day. Manuel has this team tied up in knots.— TomO
- The great hitting teams,i.e., the ones that score the most runs are always at or near the top of the league in walks. Remember the powerhouse '93 Phils? Dykstra, Kruk, Daulton were all in the top ten in the league in walks. Remember the old adage: A walk is as good as a hit!— nmlawyer
