State of the Phillies: shortstop
State of the Phillies: shortstop
David Murphy
I. 2012 production, Phillies shortstops (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .244 (10)
OBP: .309 (9)
SLG: .413 (6)
OPS: .722 (6)
HR: 23 (3)
RBI: 68 (5)
RS: 102 (1)
BREAKDOWN: Evaluating Rollins is always a complicated task because of the varying perceptions that surround him. He has never reached base as often as an ideal leadoff hitter, and his contact numbers are not what they were during his prime (his 96 strikeouts this season were the most since he 24 years old). And Charlie Manuel expressed dissatisfaction with his hustle on the base paths on a couple of occasions this season, which has been an issue at various points in Rollins' career. That being said, his .250/.316/.427 line in 2012 was actually fairly close to the National League average for the leadoff spot (.257/.319/.382). He also hit 23 home runs and converted 30-of-35 stolen base attempts. And he continues to provide excellent defense. While there is certainly an argument to be made that Rollins is better suited to hit fifth, sixth or seventh now that power has become the most attractive part of his game, there is no question that he is still an above average offensive shortstop (more on that below). And his defense remains strong, although quantifying just how strong is difficult given the uncertainty of current advanced metrics
II. Future salary commitments (luxury tax threshold $178 million in 2013, increases to $189 million in 2014)
2012: 11.0 million, 5.34 percent of luxury tax threshold (Jimmy Rollins, 34 years old)
2013: 11.0 million, 5.34 percent of luxury tax threshold (Jimmy Rollins, 35 years old)
2014: 11.0 million, 5.03 percent of luxury tax threshold (Jimmy Rollins, 36 years old)
2015: 5.0 million, 5.03 percent of luxury tax threshold (Jimmy Rollins, 37 years old)
FLEXIBILITY: Rollins name started popping up in rumors a week or so before the trade deadline, which gave the impression that the Phillies were gauging interest in him. Maybe they would be open to trading the veteran just one year after signing him to a guaranteed $38 million over three years, but Rollins has 10-and-5 rights, which means he to can veto any trade and opt to remain with the Phillies if that is his preference. Whatever the case, it is really hard to see them trading Rollins and making their infield weaker when they already have a void at third base and Chase Utley's knees to worry about at second.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Jimmy Rollins, 34, $9.5 million average annual value through 2015
- Freddy Galvis, 23, pre-Arb (1.000 service time) under club control through at least 2017.
- Roman Quinn, 19, short-season Class A Williamsport
BREAKDOWN: The Phillies love Galvis' glove and would slide him to shortstop if Rollins ever were to miss an extended stretch of time. Quinn, a highly regarded switch-hitting prospect who was drafted in the second round in 2011, showed plenty of promise in his first full season in the minor leagues, hitting .281/.370/.408 at short-season Williamsport with one home run, 30-of-36 steals, and 61 strikeouts in 267 at-bats. But he is several years away from even being in the conversation about the immediate future.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: The Phillies simply aren't going to find a shortstop who can match Rollins' production. Only seven players at the position finished 2012 with a higher OPS (min. 200 PA): Troy Tulowitzki (.846), Ian Desmond (.845), Jose Reyes (.780), Josh Rutledge (.775), Jed Lowrie (.769), Hanley Ramirez (.759) and Starlin Castro (.753). The Phillies could theoretically attempt to make a play for Lowrie with the Astros, who always seem willing to listen on players, and put him at 3B. But a deal for a shortstop who would replace either Rollins or Galvis is highly unlikely.
FREE AGENT MARKET: Again, in the unlikely scenario that the Phillies trade Rollins, they won't be going outside the organization to replace him. Assuming the Tigers pick up Jhonny Peralta's $6 million option, the available free agents are a collection of light-hitting veterans: Jason Bartlett (33), Ronny Cedeno (30), Stephen Drew (30), Alex Gonzalez (35), Yuniesky Betancourt (31) and utility men: Cesar Izturis (33), Brian Bixler (30). Only Marco Scutaro is the only real bat available at the position, and he is 37 years old and a question mark as an everyday player.
V. In conclusion: shortstop.
Pretty self-explanatory here. Expect Rollins here for at least the next couple of seasons.
According to fangraphs, Rollins posted the 3rd highest WAR among SS in all of MLB. Probably shouldn't be batting lead off but SS is one of the few solid positions on this team.— Armyofthe15Monkies- He should be batting 5th or 6th.
But what is more glaring about the Philly.com analysis, (or is it a shortcoming of the current state of the Phils?) is that Galvis shows up as 1,2, 3 on each of several depth chart situations with Mini-Mart not far behind. Surprised Philly.com doesn't see Galvis as a savior in the outfield, the 'new-age' NL Coco Crisp? Please.
This series of articles, while interesting, have sent me clearly into a deep state of depression.— 24sDad - could not agree more with all of your positions here and with taking residence in a deep state of depression.
I've been there for a few days already and didn't see you come in.— advantasux - The "Breakdown" section is a great synopsis of Rollins. He gets absolutely no respect from most of the GMs here. Thank goodness none of them work for the Phillies. That being said, the suggestions on a few of the other articles to try Rollins at 3rd to give Galvis some time at SS is certainly intriguing.— vafan
- Duh. The first "Breakdown" section.— vafan
- Roman Quinn, Lakewood 2013, Clearwater 2014, Reading/Lehigh Valley 2015. J-Roll finally retires because of old age 2016 and finally Quinn takes over and the Phillies are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Just can not wait!— Dull
- I think that maybe the best thing for Rollins would be for the Phillies to get an unquestionable lead-off guy so there's no debate about moving Rollins down in the line-up.
vafan - Rollins has pretty much stated that he has no interest in playing 3B. I've liked Rollins as a Phillie but the two things I don't like about him are this sort of inflexibility (also regarding him leading off) and the times he dogs it.— s - Looks like Galvis to third.— Dr. D.
- Looks like Galvis to third for a year. Utley retires/leaves via free agency after next season (2013) and Galvis goes to second and Cody Asche to third for the 2014 season.— Dr. D.
- Charlie tried JRoll at 3rd in the lineup multiple times.....he doesn't seem to respond.— cdedrick05
- Please. J-Roll won't have to move to 3B for Galvis because Utley is likely to miss significant chunks of time next year, and The Mighty Freddy (Galvis) will play second. The Mighty Freddy will be lucky to hit .210 when he's off PEDs. Look, Rollins is by no means an MVP guy any more but he led all NL shortstops in runs scored this season -- for a team that lacked a legitimate 3 or 4 hitter (to drive Rollins in) most of the season. He's flawed in some ways but plenty good and Rollins has a shot at the Hall of Fame. Yes, the one in Cooperstown, not at CBP.
— eman - Just want to say that these are really enjoyable articles!
I think having frandsen and Galvis as your 3b/middle infield backups for 2013 is fine. See how they work out. Asche at 3b after 2013 with Fran/Galvis as 2b in a post-utley world. No discussion about Rollins...not the player he was a few years back, but still good. That was an amazing statistic that the average NL leadoff hitter was 257.
eman--I agree, if you look at the shortstops in the hall, he is better than half of them.— kgood - Mind you--Rollins doesn't scream 'hall of fame', but he might get there depending on how the next few years play out.
Hall of famer shortstops obviously better than him: Wagner, Ripken, Yount.
Current Players obviously better (for career): Jeter, Arod
"Comparable" players: Larkin, Vaughn, Cronin (also, Trammell, who should be in hall)
(Mostly) defensive hall of famers: Smith, Tinkers, rizzuto, reese, maranville, appling, bourdreau, aparicio (yes, they all had various good seasons of hitting, but they don't scream out offense--or they hit for average, but were the pre-power shortstop era). I'd put Vizquel in this category also, as well as Concepcion)
There are 9 others in hall as short stops: I admit they were either pre-1900 or pre-inclusion...i just don't know much about them.— kgood - Jimmy Rollins has been chastised by his manager on several occassions over the years for not hustling. In other words, he has not learned any lesson from prior chastisments. You watch closely at him after he has done something like hitting a home run, and he is a happy guy, regardless of whether the team is way behind or in front - he plays for himself.
Would love to see him shipped out of here - the sooner, the better.
There is a place for the statistics cited in this article where the author can put them in - it is where the sun does not shine.
The rebulding cannot take place until Rollins and Howard are replaced in the Phillies lineup.— candidly - Yes who cares about stats, you dislike him personally, and thats all that matters. I'm dying to hear your plan to rebuild the Phillies. Trade Kendrick and prospects for Mike Trout right? — dcs2008
