State of the Phillies: Third base
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State of the Phillies: Third base
David Murphy
Yesterday, we kicked off our week-long State of the Phillies series by breaking down the past, present and future of the first base and second base positions. Our mission over these next few days is to identify where, exactly, the Phillies can improve this roster. The lesson from yesterday was that any improvement won't come at first or second base. Or, for that matter, anywhere in the infield, a point that Ryan Lawrence expands upon in today's paper.
The Phillies do have a vacancy at third base, but they don't have much in the way of options for filling that vacancy. The free agent market is thin, as is the trade market (forget David Wright). In other words, it is business as usual for the organization.
The last time Phillies third basemen finished a season with better than a .697 OPS was 2004, when David Bell hit .289/.362/.455 to lead the position. The only similarity between the position then and the position now is that Placido Polanco played it. Of course, Polanco had as many home runs in 50 plate appearances that season as he had in 315 plate appearances this season: two.
2012: .672
2011: .665
2010: .697
2009: .686
2008: .695
2007: .688
2006: .684
2005: .692
2004: .828
I. 2012 production, Phillies third basemen (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .272 (9)
OBP: .315 (11)
SLG: .357 (15)
OPS: .672 (15)
HR: 5 (16)
RBI: 42 (16)
RS: 50 (13)
BREAKDOWN: The above numbers pretty much tell the story. Placido Polanco was once again beset by injuries and is clearly winding down his career. In 78 games, he posted a .259/.301/.331 batting line. Ty Wigginton hit just .184 when playing the position and was not much better on defense. The one bright spot was Kevin Frandsen, who made the most of his opportunity, hitting .335/.377/.450 in 205 plate appearances at third base.
II. Future salary commitments (luxury tax threshold $178 million in 2013, increases to $189 million in 2014)
2012: $7.25 million, 3.37 percent of luxury tax threshold (Placido Polanco, 36 years old)
2013: None
FLEXIBILITY: The Phillies have plenty of flexibility to add personnel at the position. The $7.25 million salary listed above for Polanco include a $1 million buyout on a mutual option that is a formality at this point.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Freddy Galvis, 23, pre-Arb (1.000 service time) under club control through at least 2017.
- Kevin Frandsen, 31, arbitration eligible (est. 4.000 ST) under club control through at least 2014
- Cody Asche, 23, AA
BREAKDOWN: There are no easy answers at this position. Barring an unforeseen trade, Galvis figures to enter the season as the top defensive option at the position. The Phillies have yet to give an indication that they view Frandsen as an everyday player at the hot corner, talking about his prospects for 2013 more in the terms of a utility man or platoon player. The problem with a platoon is that Frandsen is a right-handed hitter who mashed lefties this year, and slick-fielding rookie Galvis was much better as a right-handed hitter. Galvis has never played third base, but he has shown he can play shortstop and second base and the Phillies are confident he would do the same at third. The big question is whether he can hit well enough to justify an everyday spot in a contending major league lineup. In 58 games before a back injury and PED suspension, Galvis hit just .226/.254/.363 with three home runs, 24 RBI and 14 runs. A repeat of those numbers would mean the Phillies actually got worse offensively at the position. Asche is the one hope for the future. He hit .324/.369/.481 with 12 home runs in 559 plate appearances at high-A Clearwater and Double-A Reading, but he will have to prove that he can field the position without being a glaring liability before he gets a shot in the majors. We should see him in big league spring training, but there is no way the Phillies can base their Opening Day plans for the position around Asche.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: There have been rumblings all season that the Padres are open to parting with veteran third baseman Chase Headley, whose plate approach and power potential would provide a perfect fit for this lineup. But the Padres also have a news ownership team that has locked up Carlos Quentin and Huston Street, and their strong finish to the season has tempered expectations that Headley will be traded. Houston's Jed Lowrie, who has 52 career starts at third base, is another player who you could at least envision being traded, given the Astros frequent activity in the trade market. That being said, the Astros probably wouldn't have much financial motivation to trade Lowrie, who made just $1.15 million 2012 as a first-time arbitration-eligible player. That means any team hoping to acquire him would likely have to overpay for a player who has never cracked 400 plate appearances in a season and whose career batting line is .250/.326/.417. Lowrie did hit 16 home runs in 387 plate appearances this season. There are no indications that the Mets are willing to trade David Wright. The Brewers made a late run at the postseason thanks in part to a .901 OPS and 27 home runs out of Aramis Ramirez, so it does not seem logical that they would trade the veteran. Plus, the Phillies could've signed Ramirez themselves last offseason if they viewed him as a solution at third base, although their philosophy was likely affected by the presence of Polanco.
FREE AGENT MARKET: Jeff Keppinger played third base for a playoff contender in Tampa Bay this season, posting an .806 OPS and .367 on base percentage. That being said, he had a .698 OPS in the four seasons prior. Kevin Youkilis, who had a solid run with the White Sox after Boston traded him away, could become a free agent if Chicago declines his $13 million extension. Eric Chavez had a solid season for the Yankees, but there is reason to doubt that he would hold up physically as an everyday third baseman. Same goes for Youkilis.
V. Third base, in conclusion
We'd have Galvis as our early favorite to enter the season as the regular third baseman, with Frandsen getting 300 to 400 at-bats, depending on whether he plays his way into more time. It would not be surprising to see the Phillies get creative at the position, but I have spent most of the season trying to figure out a creative way that they might fill the void and have failed to come up with a potential trade scenario. The likely scenario is rolling with Galvis and a low-cost veteran (perhaps Frandsen) and hoping they get lucky like the Rays did with Keppinger. With the rest of the holes that need to be filled, particularly in center field and perhaps one of the corner outfield spots. The Phillies can't afford to significantly overpay for the production they will receive, particularly if there are health concerns with the signee.
Freddy at third should be fine. Let's at least get the defense right next year. Of course everyone wants more offense, but at third it's hard to get both (as you know David, you get a guy who gives you more runs, you often get a guy who gives up more runs). Some people think the number of runs a team scores is important. It really isn't. More is better than less, but unless the rules have changed you still only need to score one more than the opposition. The Phillies' have a problem adding a run or two in the late innings. In my view this is a problem of offensive philosophy and management as well as player skill (I'd like to see more speed and base stealing).— JayW- -JayW - good analysis of the analysis! Is there any way we can get Davey Lopes back?— dwp66
- "Hoping they get lucky" is not a good plan.— P Even
- It will be good having Freddy back next season, but not at third. The Phillies need hitting and they need to find it for third and the outfield. Has anyone suggested an opthomologist for Howard?— Gus L.
- Galvis at third......NO, No and No. Do we really need his
.226 average? The offense sputters a lot and having his BA
in the lineup doesn't help. Pitching and defense wins games
but .226?— associate - Polanco has been hurt, sign for something reasonable, and incentive laded, and see if he has one more year in him. If he gets injured or can't hack it, it wouldn't have cost much so no problem there. He is the best defensive option. A team trying to win with pitching needs a damn good glove at 3B, Polly has that.— Paul SoTX
- For the umpteeth time......aside from Chase Headley, whom the Phils won't get and would be pretty expensive going forward in an already expensive lineup.....Frandsen is your starter EVERYDAY, with Galvis as a late inning guy if need for D. Chavez is old and oft injured (do we need another Polly?), Lowrie is a downgrade in average but an upgrade in power, doubt Houston makes a trade. Youkalis old and oft injured (do we need another Polly, again?), Keppinger gives us versatility, but is he any upgrade over a cheap Frandsen down there? Not much, IMO. I have no problem starting the season with Frandsen even if people don't believe he can hit .338 again all season.— Mark1npt
- "With the rest of the holes that need to be filled, particularly in center field and perhaps one of the corner outfield spots."
Perhaps one of the corner outfield spots? How about perhaps two of the corner outfield spots? You're going to count on Brown to fill one of those spots? Mayberry? Ruf? Schwineholtz? Give the Tonner a break. Rube the robber barren has taken the keys and wrecked this fine automobile. You start 2013 with an outfield of two of the above names and a FA in CF and all of us fans will be watching other teams in the playoffs again next year. You can make book on that missy.
— hunglikeaton - Frandsen showed he can perform. Give him a shot, with Galvis in the mix as well. No need to throw money at a thin market.— seanpcarr
- No easy solutions for 3B. Frandsen performed well but career says hes 250 hitter with little power. Dont see any sense in moving Rollins to 3B. He's a plus SS defensively who you would like to see play within his talents it would likely weaken 2 spots.. Youkalis, Rolen good to very good but age and health issues. You might get lucky with either and always loved Rolen's defense. Wright may have been traded but Mets financial problems have eased unlikely to happen. Asche looks like a possiblity.— Don w
- Given what's out there, we need two impact outfielders more than we need to sign a third baseman. I'm OK with Frandsen/Galvis at 3B, in large part because both can back up Utley and Rollins (Galvis) as well.— eman
- frandsen had one of the highest OBP on a team desperate for offense and they view him as a utility player in 2013? not surprising when you have a gm who owes his career to monty's need to demonstrate racial diversity in the front office... if monty had hired a proven baseball lifer like mike arbuckle to succeed pat gillick instead of a pliable obedient flunkie like amaro, we would probably have a couple of more WS appearances in the last five years... winning WS has never been monty's goal, though.. consecutive sellouts were his goal and he achieved it by stringing along fans with visions of WS dynasty in their heads since 2008.. ill bet monty and the silent owners have been laughing at all of the fan anger this year.— zwarte piet
- Galvis needs at bats. He's a switch hitter who had about 30 games of AAA under his belt before getting called up. It's going to take some time for his bat to develop. People keep quoting his .226 batting average over only 200 at bats as if it's set in stone. Play Brown, Ruf, and Galvis. See what they can give you and let them get ML experience. If you look at the Nationals and Braves, while we were competing for championships, they were seasoning their young players. It's time for the Phillies to recognize where they're at and do the same.— hayndude
- I'm fine with Frandsen more than I'm fine with Galvis. Frandsen had every chance to regress as the season went along and kept improving instead. He impressed me and, in my opinion, has earned the right to the Spring Training 3rd base position. Galvis will probably take Mini Mart's utility spot and get some reps at third, too. After that, we'll see how it plays out. Can't wait for one of the dolts to hijack the comments with a Ramirez or Beltre rant.— vafan
- You need Frandsen as your everyday 3B. He earned the spot, and you cannot discount his power production because of his broken leg...kinda hard t drive or pivot on a broken leg. He means more to the team than Galvis, who took imself out of the game for 50 days. Frandsen starts rallies, gets timely extra base hits, and played a more than respectable game at third. He has character. Look at what he's been through and how he performed when given a full chance. And Galvis took himself out of the game for 50 games.
Freddy is a dynamite player on the field. In the batters box he's a question mark, who's numbers are inflated by his speed. That is not a negative until he either injures himself, or gets older. JR is still too young to think about replacement, and that leaves Galvis as a player who COULD [along with the failed project that is Dom Brown] fetch a decent power hitting right fielder, and a good 2B/SS prospect in a trade. Throw in most of the bull pen acquired over the summer via trades and get some good arms to go along with Bastardo.— ngfs66
