State of the Phillies: Second base
This week, the Daily News and High Cheese will be taking an in-depth look at the Phillies roster moving forward, breaking down the state of each position as it relates to the future and the present. In Tuesday's newspaper, Ryan Lawrence will look at the infield. Earlier today, we looked at first base. Now, let's move on to second base.
State of the Phillies: Second base
David Murphy
This week, the Daily News and High Cheese will be taking an in-depth look at the Phillies roster moving forward, breaking down the state of each position as it relates to the future and the present. In Tuesday's newspaper, Ryan Lawrence will look at the infield. Earlier today, we looked at first base. Now, let's move on to second base.
I. 2012 production, Phillies second basemen (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .255 (11)
OBP: .325 (7)
SLG: .411 (2)
OPS: .736 (4)
HR: 17 (5)
RBI: 84 (2)
RS: 74 (12)
BREAKDOWN: There are two important distinctions to make when evaluating the state of the Phillies at second base. The first is the distinction between Chase Utley at his current level of performance and Chase Utley at his peak level of performance. The second is between Chase Utley at his current level and the average major league second baseman at his current level. Let's deal first with the latter category. Utley finished the season second among Phillies regulars with a .365 OBP and a .793 OPS. During his three-month stint on the disabled list, his replacement, Freddy Galvis, posted a .254 OBP and .617 OPS. In other words, the Phillies produced 11 percent more base runners out of the second base position with Utley there than they did with Galvis there. The aforementioned NL ranks show that the Phillies still have one of the best offensive second basemen in baseball…when Utley is in the lineup. The big question, of course, is how often will Utley be in the lineup next season, which is the last year of his contract. Can he maintain the level of production he displayed over the final three months of 2012 for all six months of 2013? Utley and the Phillies have expressed confidence that he can, but they really do not have much of a choice. In reality, he remains a big unknown.
Take, for example, Utley's performance in the first half of his return compared with his performance in the second half of his return. In his first 42 games he hit .247/.360/.473 with 8 home runs in 178 plate appearances (.833 OPS). In his last 41 games he hit .265/.370/.384 with 3 home runs in 184 plate appearances (.754 OPS). The contact, walk and strikeout numbers all remained even, but the power suffered a significant decline. Even if Utley is able to stay in the lineup for all six months of the regular season, there is some reason to wonder how his performance will hold up (his numbers showed a similar pattern after he returned from the disabled list in 2011). Again, we get back to the two important distinctions. The vast majority of major league teams would be thrilled with a .260 batting average and .370 on base percentage out of second base. But Utley's final numbers this season were below average for a No. 3 hitter. In the NL in 2012, three-hole hitters combined to hit .283/.356/.469 with a home run every 25.5 at-bats. Utley hit .256/.365/.429 with a home run every 27.4 at-bats.
II. Future Salary Commitments (Edited to reflect lux. tax threshold increase to $189 mil in '14)
2012: Chase Utley, 34 years old, $15.0 million (6.82 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2013: None
FLEXIBILITY: Utley has some trade appeal because of the production he still brings to the second base position. Of course, that appeal is mitigated by the uncertainty about his health that is sure to exist after two straight seasons in which a chronic knee condition caused him to miss at least two months. The Phillies' flexibility is also limited by a no-trade provision that, according to FoxSports.com, allows Utley to block deals to all but eight major league clubs. That being said, the Phillies have given no indication that they would explore a trade of Utley prior to the start of the 2013 season. They already have a void at third base that could be filled by the light-hitting Galvis. Opening up another void at second base would not make sense given the lack of options available on the trade or free agent markets.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Chase Utley, 34, $12.14 average annual value signed through 2013
- Freddy Galvis, 23, pre-Arb (1.000 ST) under club control through at least 2017.
- Kevin Frandsen, 31, arb-eligible (est. 4.000 ST) under club control through at least 2014.
- Michael Martinez, 30, pre-arb (est. 2.000 ST) under club control through at least 2016.
- Cesar Hernandez, 23, AAA
BREAKDOWN: The Phillies thought enough of Galvis to ponder moving Utley to third base, although that experiment has been shelved for the foreseeable future. Frandsen spent the majority of the season at third base but is a natural second baseman who made a strong bid for consideration as a utility man in 2013, hitting .314/.352/.417 combined between AAA and the majors. Hernandez is a prospect who hit .291/.329/.404 in AA and AAA this season, but he is by no means considered a sure-fire second baseman of the future. At this point, he still projects as more of a utility man, although like any young player he still has potential to develop into more than that.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: At this point, there are no obvious second basemen who will be shopped this winter.
FREE AGENT MARKET: The Phillies may have pushed harder on an Utley move to third if there were a bona fide everyday second baseman available on the free agent market, the position looks to be thin. Kelly Johnson (31 years old) had a down year in Toronto, although he has some solid power seasons under his belt. Jeff Keppinger (33 years old) had an excellent season for Tampa Bay while splitting time between third base and designated hitter, so he could profile as a hitter the Phillies would have interest in. Orlando Hudson (35) has seen his production decline the last three seasons. He finished 2012 with a .572 OPS. It is doubtful that the Phillies would view Ryan Theriot (33) as an upgrade over Galvis. Other names on the market include Jeff Baker (32), Adam Kennedy (37), Jose Lopez (29), Maicer Izturis (32), Mike Fontenot (33) and Marco Scutaro (37)
V. Second base: In conclusion
Like first base, the Phillies' have little ability to pursue an upgrade. They will not have to worry about one if Utley can stay on the field for an entire season. But they will have a huge offensive void if he can't. Galvis still must move that he can play everyday without being an offensive liability. Frandsen could provide a better offensive option than the Phillies had when Utley was on the shelf this year. Long story short, whether the Phillies can improve on what they got out of second base this year will be dictated by Utley's health rather than any offseason moves.
The long-term outlook is fuzzy at best, as next year's free agent market is not looking much better than this one.
Utley the best position player in the last 50 years? Not even close. He wouldn't even make the short list. if it wasn't for Howard, the phillies would not have made the playoffs those two magical years. No one alive would say that Utley was a better player than Schmidt. I can name at least 8-10 other position players who were arguably better than him in the last 50 years of phillies baseball. And three or four that you couldn't argue that he was better than He was the third best player on the phillies teams he was on.(Rollins,, howard) Fracking insane statement.— UncleStosh- Even in his prime, Utley would fall off a cliff after the all- star break every year especially his power numbers. Howard was left to carry the team to the playoffs in all of their good years with those insanely monstrous august runs he had.— UncleStosh
- Please excuse the grammar and punctuation errors, as I've been working long hours out here in A-stan...
— JNev - Watching Chase play, even while in Afghanistan, it was a pleasure. The past 5 years or so has been a pleasure. Even with all the negative aspects aside, watching Chase play, with all the heart in the world and with as much class was and has always been pleasurable. He DEFINITELY brings this energy with him; an energy that seems to spread to those around him. Sort of like when the "life of the party" type of person shows up at a dull, boring get-together, and then the pary gets fun and exciting! I have ALL the respect in the world for him!— JNev
- ijj, I agree with your statement that this is a "don't get your hopes too high'' series. However, I have been posting for several years the Phillies were a team on its way down, getting older and injury prone while the FO has failed to incorporate young players into the mix. To the contrary, they keep bringing the Polancos, Ibañezes, the Moyers, Wiggintons and Thomes of the world. Another aspect that have been exposed the last three or four years is the inability of this team under Manuel to adapt to the pitching philosophy of other teams against them. They are pitching the Phillies backwards. Junk in FB count and vice versa. They look confuse. Jayson Stark had a column about that topic a few years ago with some interviews with scouts and executives from the NL. Last year, ESPN did an analysis/projection of the whole league and while the Phillies ranked in the top 2 in money, they were in the middle of the pack in talent at the ML roster and minor leagues and managerial (FO included) and were near the bottom in the ability to move players because of the combination of big contracts, age and injury history. What Murph and Ryan are writing is not new to me and some of us, but it makes for a nice debate.— EL Zorro
- I remember a game late in the season when the Phillies were making their run. Late in the game, Utley is hit by a pitch, steals second, steals third and scores (what turns out to be the winning run)on a sac fly. That's why I am rooting hard for for this to be a therapeutic off season that allows us to have a full year of Chase.— John Klink
- It is so good to see posts that reflect reality when discussing players and what they still mean to the Phillies. Especially Chase Utley - he is simply THE best we have ever had at second base. The best compliment you can pay him - and I'm sure he would agree - he is a gamer. We were blessed to see two of the same ilk, albeit with less natural ability than Chase -last year: Frandsen and Juan Pierre. These are the kind of players (see the Cardinals) that you MUST have to win consistently.— dwp66
- I'm well past hero worship days, but Chase Utley embodies the spirit and effort I admire in athletes. He and other Phillies put their bodies on the line to succeed at a high level for a few years. The inexorable breaking down is just a part of baseball, a facet of the game brought home when as a kid I watched the Whiz Kids age, then saw Callison's skills diminish sooner than expected to this same reality. These days teams get caught up in the mega salary bubble that can create down years like this. He's not a 3 hole hitter anymore, and that's where the Phillies need to strike in the off season. Be a third baseman or an outfielder, the need a .280/30/100 guy for that slot in the batting order. Heck, I'd lead off with Utley and bat Rollins 6th or 7th. A basic order of: Utley, Pierre, FA OUTFIELDER, Howard, Ruiz,D. Brown, Rollins, Fransden...with Galvis getting extensive work at 2b, ss, and 3b. Add two reliable bullpen arms and I think contention is not a pipe dream. Your guess is as good as mine as to the growth of Bastardo, DeFratus, Horst, Stutes. Even with all the Phillies woes this year, they'd've won 90 or more games with just above average work in the 7th and 8th inning from the pen.— retzlaff
- once upon a time, not a long while ago, we had 3/4 of the best infield in baseball. then three years back we got polanco, which in theory made us whole. so what happened? slip-slidin away. though i agree totally with the poster who called utley the best position player of the past 50 years (i'll take it further: been watching the phillies 65 years), he is, ever so sadly, gone beyond his shelf life expiry date. someone here mentioned galvis at short, rollins to third. makes untold sense. can you imagine ruin and gomer having the chutzpah, to say nothing of the mentality, to even approach rollins with the notion?— bubba church & granny hamner
- I never understood why they sent Fontenot down. Martinez should never have been on the roster. Cesar Hernandez hopefully has a big year in AAA which is where Galvis should also be as a SS. Hernandez has the potential to be an every day big league infielder. Galvis so far looks like a backup although he still gets a lot of ink. Phils should sign Jeff Keppinger and put these numbers in a drawer BA: .275, HR 20 RBI 80. If Utley reaches those numbers and fields his position as he has, then it's worth entertaining negotiations on continuing him past 2013. Otherwise he will be another overpaid declining Phil along with the guy who plays to his left. Better to have a fill in like Keppinger in place in 2013 just in case.— Claudio Vernight
- Don't give up on Utley, or Howard so easily. If those guys can play most of the season and the starters have a normal year, the team will contend. Rollins is the key to the defense and offense. he is the best position player the Phillies have ever had in my 50 years of watching. e will owm most Phillies hitting records when he is done, and he is right there with the best fielding SSs in the game.— Paul SoTX
- Why are Manuel and Dubee still employed?— dedhed
- totally agree with EMan. We were spoiled a bit with Chase. For a good 2-3 year period, we not only had a very productive 2B but a player that was a Top 50 player. Getting that type of production out of 2B is rare, which Murph points out. Even with a declining bat, Chase's clubhouse persona, ability to work a count & base running are a plus. There is nothing out there worth picking up that would equal what we get with Chase especially for one year. Best bet is to stand pat on FA & trades, move Chase to 3B, Galvis to 2B and hope the defense offsets any loss in offensive production.— PhillyinBmore
- Chase pours his heart and soul into the Phillies organization and "fans" question his ethics. Classic internet comments. Is there a Bush League for the web?
I would like to see Chase get more rest in the second half but when you're fighting for a post season spot, you have to pencil him into the lineup. My fingers are crossed that Chase stays healthy but I like Frandsen, too. Who was it that got some type of experimental injection into a joint last year that had very good results?— vafan - @DonW....Schmidt was a SS in HS and college but knee surgery curtailed his participation at that position. I agree with you, however. As much as I loved Schmidt growing up and with all his HRs, I still take Chase if I need a big hit in a big game. Of course, Schmidt was a very good baserunner in spite of the bad knee but Chase is a demon on the basepaths and a lot better pure basestealer. Defensively, Chase has been very good but hard to argue with Schmidt's dominance at his position all those years. Like Mickey Mantle, it would have been nice to see what Schmidt COULD HAVE done if not for the bad knee early in his development. I also agree with you about the Chase is selfish complaints. Just the opposite is true. This guy probably ruined his knees with our best interests in mind by beating his knees to a pulp trying to get over his hip surgery the year before. Anybody blaming Chase is an idiot.
@dasher....the last time Keppinger came up in trade talks, he was my first choice to acquire given his good D, his multiple positions/versatility and his propensity to get 5 hits in a game against our stellar staff.
— Mark1npt - Robinson Cano is a free agent next year...that's not better than this year's free agent market?— jimbo jones
- It is funny that a lot fans are hoping for Wright in 14. He would start the year as a 31 year old.
What value of contract would you offer and for how long? And, is the GM that signs him a genius or a Rube?
Just asking?— Smoothellc - We are good. Lets wait for Wright 14' if Cody Asche doesn't progress as we all hope. Unless, of course, the Rangers are open for a trade.— KINGOFZED
You cannot deny the fact that Chase and Howard brought an energy and confidence to this team upon their return and game acclimation. That's something that the SS could not or would not do and it should also be noted that he picked up his play at time of return of Howard and Chase. I'm with Donw here......for me, Chase was always the key to making this team go. A throwback player for sure. I was down on him for not letting Amaro know of his issues this winter in a timely manner; the cats out of the bag and now it's up to Amaro in being a lot more proactive with monitoring his multimillion dollar players.
Galvis can spell Frandsen and Utley at their respective positions next year keeing the two rested while maintaning his won playing edge.
- Don w, I love your post. Too many folks here bash our players, who are among the best I've seen in Philly in 50 years as a fan. I count Utley, Rollins and Howard among them. Murphy has it right: Utley is still a productive second baseman when healthy; Utley is not a No. 3 hitter, even when healthy. What we need, and it won't be easy, are No. 3 and 4 hitters. Moving Utley to 2nd and Howard to 5th would create a devastating lineup. From there, I'd take my chances with our rotation and bullpen. Two big 3-4 hitting acquisitions via trade or free agency, and let's reload.
— eman - Chase utley is a gamer and should be given every opportunity to prepare for an intelligent starting date for the 2013 season. This will obviously be his last go-around in the major leagues as a Philly.
As was the case this year, Freddie Galvis should start the season at second-base and move to shortstop as soon as Utley comes back. At that point J'ROLL should move to third or be moved to another team for the most pressing need (Pitcher, OF or 3B).— garcia7 - Every team is allowed a down year. One reason that the Phils have only had one down year is because this division hasn't been a particularly good one before this season. I believe, if you go back almost a decade, that there was only 1 season(2010)where 2 teams from the NL East made the playoffs between 2004-2011. I may be in the minority, but I don't think that "tinkering" will get the job done here. I certainly liked the Juan Pierre move, but I really didn't like the Wigginton or Nix moves when they were announced, and those were Amaro's initial moves. The team needs more than youth; it needs speed and defense. While Raul Ibanez has been a class act, the Phils should NOT bring him back - they need more youth and energy. Too bad they can't bring back Davey Lopes to coach 1st- he was the ONLY guy who could push these guys to run aggressively. In addition, the new guys who are brought in should be more selective hitters, working more counts. Hopefully Amaro is working on a big time plan; it may/should involve a major trade of a previous untouchable.— 76erfn
- @Don, good post. @Murphy and Lawrence, good article. I look forward to the others in this series.
I strongly urge the Phillies to pursue Jeff Keppinger. Between Keppinger, Frandsen, and Utley I think they would cover 2nd and 3rd very nicely at a modest cost, leaving money to do other things with the OF and the pitching staff.— dasher - I think the overall message of these articles so far is, "Don't get your hopes up for 2013," or, "Yes, the Phillies have really painted themselves into a corner." That said, the articles contain more complete documentation for that assessment than has appeared previously. Not to quibble, but HR's and slg. pct aside, I thought the consensus chatter was that Utley was at least hitting more line drives with authority than at the end of '11. Utley has mostly been a pleasure to watch the past 7 and 1/2 years. Even in decline, he is a terrific, intelligent base runner, and one of the few remaining gamers on this team.— ijj
- A shame is only way I can look at the Utley health issues. I have watched thr Phills for over 50 years. After Mike Schmidt Utley is the best position player they have had. If I had the choice of Utley or Schmidt at their best and Phills needed a hit I would go for Chase. Do you see Schmidt hitting 5 HRs in a world series? Schmidt was a great player. I think the Schmidt of the first 8-10 years was good enough to succeed at SS. Utley was also headed for HOF. The Chase was selfish statements are just stupid. Im sure Utley expected to show up in spring. He has nothing to gain by keeping injury quiet. In fact it will hurt his chance for a contract after 2013. Teams will question his health. Watching what Utley brought to Phills has been a pleasure.— Don w
- FABER, I guess you are a medical expert now? If you have read about his condition, it didn't start getting worse until he started up in spring training. He has a new pt, and has etter exercises now to control it. It's not like he was in pain all off season and didn't tell anyone. And I agree with cxl72, I don't see the purpose in these articles. I guess they gotta fill space.— carlosbeltran
- not sure of the purpose here of this series. weve spent months articulating the phillies needs. nothing new here.— cxl72
- If Utley wasnt so selfish and either let the Phils know about his knees or played through it with days off, the Phillies would be in the playoffs right now. Believe it. Does anybody else find it odd that he takes half the season off and barely rests the 2nd half when he came back??— FABER
- If Michael Martinez is at all in this conversation...I quit.— Mortimer G Fingenfinderstein III
- How does the farm look at 2nd?— HandNik
