State of the Phillies: First base
The latest Phillies and baseball news from Philly.com.
State of the Phillies: First base
David Murphy
This week, the Daily News and High Cheese will be taking an in-depth look at the Phillies roster moving forward, breaking down the state of each position as it relates to the future and the present. In Tuesday's newspaper, Ryan Lawrence will look at the infield. Today, we'll start things off with a look at first base.
The success of a lineup is dictated by the economics of salary and personnel distribution, and the Phillies' production at first base in 2012 was a prime example. The market of talent in baseball features a strong supply of players who can both hit for power and reach base at rates above the league average. Of the $178 million that a team can spend before it exceeds the luxury tax threshold, the Phillies allocated 14.05 percent to their starter at first base. Really, the number is slightly higher than that when you factor in the $10 million that each team is required to pay for player benefits, which counts against the threshold (in other words, teams can spend about $168 million on player salaries before going over the threshold). In 2012, the Phillies flunked those economics, as their production at third base was well below league average in most major offensive categories.
I. 2012 production, Phillies first basemen (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .234 (13)
OBP: .308 (13)
SLG: .415 (11)
OPS: .723 (13)
HR: 27 (4)
RBI: 102 (3)
RS: 75 (10)
BREAKDOWN: Ryan Howard struggled after he returned from the disabled list in early July, hitting .219/.295/.423 with 99 strikeouts in 260 at-bats in 71 games. Howard maintained his knack for hitting with runners on base (his 56 RBI in 71 games would equate to 127 RBI in 162 games) and for hitting home runs (14 HR in 71 games equates to 31 HR in 162 games). But a .219 batting average and .295 on base percentage are significant detriments: if you value RBI, you must value runs scored, and a hitter must reach base in order to score runs. Howard recorded career-worst marks in walk rate, strikeout rate and at-bats-per-home-run. The first three months of the season featured Ty Wigginton (62 games, .757 OPS) and John Mayberry Jr. (24 games, .625 OPS) getting the bulk of the action at first base. Combined, the result was production that was well below what the majority of other National League teams received from first base.
II. Future Salary Commitments (Edited to reflect lux. tax threshold increase to $189 mil in '14)
2012: Ryan Howard, 33 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2013: Ryan Howard, 34 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2014: Ryan Howard, 35 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2015: Ryan Howard, 36 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2016: Ryan Howard, 37 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold
2017: Ryan Howard, 38 years old, $23.0 million or $10 million buyout (13.23 percent or 0.00 percent of luxury tax threshold)
Flexibility: None. Howard is still owed $95 million in annual salary over the next four seasons, plus a $10 million buyout in 2017. His luxury tax cost is $25 million a season over the next four years, and he will be 33 years old during the 2013 season.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Ryan Howard, 33, $25 million average annual value (AAV) signed through 2016
- John Mayberry Jr., 29, pre-Arb (2.095 service time), club control through at least 2016
- Laynce Nix, 32, $1.25 million AAV signed thru 2013.
- Darin Ruf, 26, pre-Arb (< 1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
- Erik Kratz, 33, pre-Arb (<1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
BREAKDOWN: First base will not be a priority for the Phillies for the foreseeable future. Manuel said late in the season that he thought Kratz could handle spot duty at first base, although there is no indication that will play a major role in 2013. Ruf, like any player with one month of big league experience, is an unknown, although he is the best chance for the Phillies to have some young depth at the position over the life of Howard's contract.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: None. Even during Howard's healthy 2011 season, his .253/.346/.488 batting line and 33 home runs were nearly identical to Adam LaRoche's .271/.343/.510 and 33 home runs for the Nationals this year. LaRoche, of course, was making $8 million in AAV compared with $25 million for Howard. Just to give Howard away to another team, the Phillies would likely have to eat at least half of the money remaining on his contract.
Disagree? Prior to 2011, Paul Konerko signed a three-year, $37.5 million deal that covered his 35, 36 and 37 years old seasons. Howard is due to earn $75 million for his 35-to-37-year-old seasons, plus a $10 million buyout for his 38-year-old season. If Konerko's contract is what the free market would bear for those years of power production at first base, there is little reason to expect that a team would assume more than that amount in acquiring Howard. Factor in the fact that Konerko's number have been better than Howard's over the past few seasons, and that Konerko is not one year removed from a ruptured Achilles, and it is pretty safe to say that the market would view Howard as, at best, a $12.5 million-per-season player over the remaining four years of his contract.
The time for maneuvering at first base was the last few seasons, when Howard, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez all signed new deals. The Phillies made their choice, and now it is on Howard to prove them right or wrong.
FREE AGENT MARKET: With a slew of elite first baseman having signed contract extensions over the previous few seasons, the 2013 market is not a strong one. Assuming the Nationals exercise LaRoche's $10 million option, the only potential everyday players available are Mike Napoli, Carlos Pena and James Loney. The rest: Jason Giambi, Eric Hinske, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Casey Kotchman, Ty Wigginton, Lyle Overbay, Xavier Nady.
V. First base: In conclusion
The Phillies have no choice but to believe that Howard will get back to the production level he offered when they signed him to a five-year, $125 million contract extension during the 2010 season, when he still had two years left on his existing deal. The first baseman was not in the same physical condition that he was before his surgery, which the Phillies hope will be rectified by an offseason of his usual training regimen. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has acknowledged that the Phillies' future will be dictated largely by the performance of the players who are earning significant dollars, and Howard is the most crucial member of that club.
Comments (82)
Where are all the Howard lovers at these days? Such a great call to sign this deal 2 years before it was necessary. If RAJ is deemed a failure he can look to this signing as the major reason why. 100k's in 71 games, the Green Mile is washed up!— JuanSamuel4prez- We're all here. Most of us only check in once in a while what with that whole support group thing, ya know? By the way, posting first and asking people where they are doesn't make much sense, Einsteen. — vafan
- Hindsight is 20/20, but it appears Howard came back too early from the Achilles. The expectation was a 9 month recovery; he was back in 6. The poor start apparently rushed his return, and the numbers bear that out. It doesn't look promising for the future, but I'm willing to see how a normal post-season recovery & 2013 Spring Traning plays out before proclaiming him done.— Dave14
- I know the giant contract says they won't, but there should at least be some consideration of platooning Howard. .784 OPS against RH vs .604 vs LH. Then take a look at Mayberry's .811 vs LH and .626 against RH. It's almost too obvious. Of course a good bit of that is opposing managers maneuvering to get lefty specialists in against Howard, but there's no rule that says Howard has to finish every game he starts either. I imagine the extra rest would do the big guy some good too. If they want to get back into contention with this roster they need to be bold and get the best players on the field for the situation at the time.— JettMartinez
- Note to Dave14: WRONG!! Howard's numbers have been declining over both the 2010 and 2011 seasons, in both of which he played without injury. He has zero playe discipline walking only 8.6% of his ABs. Over his career he has averaged a strikeout in 34% of his ABs. Players like Pujols, Teixeira, Fielder, LaRoche and Votta average only 16%. Howard is a liability they can no longer afford, both monetarily and talent-wise. Trade him and eat half the salary. We still save $50 million and get Ruf who is a power hitting 26 year old RH bat who can play every day.— 1republican
- Just so we're understanding you correctly, you want Rube to trade a proven superstar so a dude with 10 big league games can play? I'm all about Ruf's potential and frustrated at Ryan's season but go easy on the candy corn. — vafan
- He's only a proven superstar in Phillies fanatics minds.
If Howard were to hit the free agent market now, would he get a Pujols sized contract? Fielder? Votto?
You know the answer to that. It would be closer to Adam Dunn. He's no superstar.— fmMD - He's hurt so the obvious answer is no. I am confident he compares favorably to all your suggestions except Pujols. I watch the away games a lot of the time as part of the Extra Innings package. The rest of the league has much more respect for Howard than the vocal minority on this site. Can't wait for him to come back healthy next year. I predict a monster year for Ryan. — vafan
- vafan, and I would guarantee one thing many of these names WILL be one here chiming his bell if he does have that monster season. There are so many fraud Phillies fans nowadays. Like I said 95% of these voices on here would have been livid had they allowed Howard to walk a couple years ago. And they know it. — hawaiiphillyfan
- Great article. The biggest challenge for the Phillies will be how to handle the "Howard SItuation" if Ryan does not rebound significantly from this year, or even 2011, when his deteriorating statistics were already evident. Among commentators, there seems to be the assumption that with a little rest from what be a career-defining injury, he can rebound to hit .260 with 35 home runs and 120 RBIs. I am not so sanguine about this. What if, as I think is more likely the case, in mid-June, he's locked at .230 and striking out every 2.5 at bats? And with no better luck against left-handers or curve balls? The Phillies will have to be prepared to platoon him or even trading him to the AL and eating some of the ill-timed contract money. I think the Howard die-hards confuse the early years and Howard's congenial demeanor with a guy who can contribute on the baseball field every day, at this point. He's going to be paid by someone regardless; such is the contract. But will he help you win?— PeterG
- I hope he does rebound, but if you draw a straight line graph, around .245 is more likely with more strikeouts.
Pitchers are not afraid of him any more.— fmMD - 1republican--
Howard was injured in 2010, when he rolled his ankle in Washington in mid-summer and had to be helped off the field. He continued to play on it. That's just bad luck for the Phillies, coming as it did just a few months after the extension, but it was the start of the problems that led to his Achilles blowing out in 2011.— RRinVA - I think the 2012 season has to be just written off. Unlike others on this site--I do not pretend to know everything--but it appeared to me that Howard's bat was notably slower in 2012--perhaps because of difficulty driving off of his back foot. Again this is my observation--it caused him to start earlier and thus get fooled most often.
In many ways it is remarkable for a person his size to attempt to come back from that operation in the time he did.
The team absolutely needs him to perform better in 2013. I think the time to panic will be May or June of 2013.
One other factor to consider--Howard loses 10-15 points a year on his BA due to the shift. There are times I wish he would learn to bunt to make them play honest--but do you really want to take the bat from his hands that way?
I am willing to let this play out further.— Smoothellc - Chollie the hitting guru will turn Howie around.
Oops - been there; didn't work. The Phils will hire another hitting coach / sacrificial lamb that will prove to be ineffective.— jsqrd - Ryan Howard deserves better from a class organization, the Phillies, they should allow him to progress to full health in required amount of time according to his doctors and strength conditioning coaches. He needs at least 12 months of pure re-hab to get back to playing shape he was in 2011.If this means starting a platoon of Dom Brown and Mayberry/Ruf/Kratz to have all get some at bats and see who can also handle to position best defensively. Mayberry may well be best suited in outfield position longterm, whereas Ruf may not have the speed to run to balls in spacious ballparks leaving him a liability out there.
Kratz maybe a possible option to have him get more ABs and keep him flexibility for when Ruiz gets hurt or overworked which is common when you play 20 games per month without a break. In summary, don't bring Ryan back until mid-spring or even May/June to get him fully ready to play, then don't expect him to hit lights out until he's had 50-100 ABs and feels 100%. I think he rushed himself back two months too early and suffered stamina and strength conditioning issues in 2012.
Cheers,
BB— bigben2009 - Ryan Howard deserves better from a class organization????? He is making 15% of the organization's pay, by himself! He doesn't deserve anything else from this organization until he starts to perform to his compensation. — kozykoz26
- Highway robbery cashing those checks. Not his fault but wonder if he feels at all guilty taking such a large chuck of the teams payroll and not being able to deliver up to expectations? This is what's wrong with baseball…guaranteed contracts suck! Football they cut you if you are not performing and the contract ends.— connorjr
- He feels no worse than the Phillies do taking your money to watch a team that had very little heart in 2012.
The last month, the players really wanted the season to be over. It was evident in their play.— fmMD - @1republican.... It's amazing how quickly people jump on the band wagon. Ruf looks like he might be a good player. However he has what 20 big league at bats? No team would ever declar someone ready for the bigs so quickly. Slow it down with the Ruf is the future. Right now he's just a guy that had a tremendous season in AA.— bobf876
- Yeah, we should take more time with the 26 yr Ruf. I'm so tired of this front office and it's hypnotized fan base projecting distrust about our prospects. They do this because they have a roster full of aging under performers who they have misjudged and overpaid. They would rather go out and sign a journeyman whose proven his mediocrity on 4 different rosters than give a young guy with upside a little time under the bright lights. I scratch my head. A winning team is a mixture of battle-tested experience and the fresh and hungry ambition of youth. Guys like Ruf, whatever their pedigree or paycheck are the lifeblood of a winning organization. Guys like Howard - once great but far in decline and owed a fortune, are cancerous to any team's prospects. I would pay someone to take him. — auntesther
- Howard cannot hit Lefthanders! The Phils could win another 5-10 games simply by platooning him.— farley
- Yes, right now the contract stinks. However, if they didn't sign him then and he was healthy and put up two more big seasons, he would be looking at slightly less than what Pujols and Fielder got last offseason. The Phillies took a calculated risk and due to the fact that Howard got hurt, it backfired. Right now his value is low, but if he can come back and have a big season or two in 2013 and 2014, they could trade him and get some value for him and let Ruf play 1st base in 2014/2015.— sjuhawk416
- @ David Murphy. One point you fail to touch on regarding Howard's contract/ extension and what the going free market rate would be in comparison to Konerkos is the fact that almost 100% of National League teams will lose out on signing a premiere free agent first baseman. With that said lets take a look at the first basemen that have left the NL as free agents - Adam Dunn, Mark Texeira, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols. Ones that left because of future salary or signability issues - Miguel cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez. And ones that remained and reupped in the AL - Konerko, Ortiz.
The issue that NL teams have to contend with when thinking of extending or offering a free agent first baseman is the designated hitter. There is absolutely no way that an NL team can contend with an AL team when offering a contract. The difference being the guaranteed years a NL team can guarantee a first baseman until that player gets to old or is unproductive and does not offer any value anymore since he can't field his position. AL teams usually are capable of making a contract that is TWICE as long as a contract offer from a NL team work because of the DH rule.
Since NL cannot offer these guys contracts as long as AL teams they then need to compensate and compete with AL team contract offers somehow....that is where Ryan Howard's contract actually becomes a case study as to how NL teams would need to compete with AL teams.
— michael2_19030 - As a follow up to my last post and to sum everything up:
AL contracts to premiere 1B = 8-10 years at a high annual salary
On the flip side
NL contracts to premiere 1B = 4-6 years but an even HIGHER annual salary that the AL contract
Phillies found themselves gambling on Howard. Gambling that if he had two more seasons similar to one ones he had before signing the extension they would be out of the running for signing him, Pujols, Fielder, Gonzalez or any other premiere first base free agent that would likely sign with an AL team thus leaving them with someone to play 1B that would not be able to produce at the level they were used to.
It was a gamble that they lost on. But there was a thought process. Phillies didn't just throw 20-25 million or 5 years out there without thinking it through.— michael2_19030 - BB you said it
Myself- (1) he has the talent; (2) now he has the motivation; (3) even at half strengtht he became a force in the line up.— jbcanoe - BOBF876: HOWARD IS WASHED UP. GET OVER IT. HIS PRODUCTION HAD GONE DOWN CONSISTENTLY IN 2010 AND 2011, BOTH YEARS IN WHICH HE PLAYED WITHOUT INJURY. IF YOU THINK HE'S WORTH $25 MIL, START SENDING MONTHLY CHECKS TO THE PHILLIES ORGANIZATION TO HELP DEFRAY THE COST OF PAYING HIM. AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF FANS WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIM IN THE AL EVEN IF THE CLUB HAS TO EAT HALF HIS SALARY.— 1republican
- BB, I agree with your assessment. Really Howard should never have come back this season at all. But the way the season was going, he felt obligated to do something. I get the feeling that he will feel the same in this off-season and spring training. He knows that he had a sub-par year (regardless of injury) and is making 20M+. He wants to validate his contract which means he will play through all of spring training and the 2013 season. Unfortunately, he will also put a ton of pressure on himself to exceed his '06-10 years and he will take a ton of flak if he falters in the least bit. The only reason he gets such treatment is his contract. Which through no fault of his own, was offered at the peak of his offensive production.— PhillyinBmore
- All the analysis yields "no change"= why waste your time..........how about an article on how and why this happened - what were inputs for the decisions and accountability?? Try it - you may get somewhere with it.— Northcountry
- He'll still hit 30 hr's and knock in 125 runs a year, but he'll also hit .220 with 200 strikeouts, and be a liability at first base. Bottom line is that he's not terrible, and would be an asset were it not for the money that they are paying him, that could have been used to fortify another position— blaqjaq
- I bet on Howard making a comeback.
- Headley and Upton.— Seegs
- Yup and as soon as they do that, and Headley or Upton fails, YOU would be one of those on here claiming, "I told everyone that this was a bad signing by RAJ, he is the dumbest person in MLB". Am I correct??? — hawaiiphillyfan
- The best hope is Howard has a bit of a resurgence at the plate in 2013 and the team is able to swap him to a desperate AL team who wants to use him as a DH. Even then, they'd have to eat a lot of salary to make him palatable as a tradable commodity. His future in the league, if any, is not going to be as an everyday player. He's 33 and an old 33 at that.— Repubrebirth
- I'd love to see Howard traded, but you would be selling at his absolute lowest value. If Howard is owed 95 million over the next four seasons, maybe the Phillies could find a dance partner willing to take on 50% of Howard's salary. That's very wishful thinking. Imagine an extra 12 million or so yearly, of extra money to fill some voids on the roster. The problem is, Ruben Amaro is still the GM.— FreeCable4Ever
- This might be the worst contract in the history of all sports compared to the return of the investment. Congrats Rube.— ronin32
- What about a 2 strike swing. A hard hit ball to the left side works for me.— TEMPLE55
- Red Sox recently unloaded three big money 30+yr olds, two who were ineffective this season. Howard's RBI ability and an added sweetener to the pot could move his contract.— escapedcamden4monterey
- Agree with all those (surprisingly many already!) who want a platoon. Howard still kills right-handed pitching, and Ruf looks special against lefties (although I would settle for Mayberry). There's virtually no chance Howard is going to hold up for 150 games a year for the next several years anyway, so why not have the limited number of games he's actually going to play be primarily against righties?— person
- Howard is a wrecking crew when healthy. He has had a few injury issues, and may have been back in the lineup too soon this season. He did it because he is a team player, and not a crybaby whiner. When Charlie benched Rollins, Howard publicly backed Charlie. This team will only go as far as Howard takes it. With any luck somebody else will step up and help him next season.— Paul SoTX
- The success of the Phillies will to a large degree depend on which Howard shows up in 2013. Ryan's contract was based on what he did the first three years. Howard hit 153 HRs his first FULL 3 years. An average of 51 per year Howard has made batting adjustments improved his fielding and before the injury got in better shape. Still he's regressed in the years since. I would love to see him go back to the open stance and look to drive the ball from leftcenter to center. His big problem is chasing pitchers out of strike zone particularly low outside. If he does not improve his 200 avg. against lefties he should be platooned. Teams dont usually do that to 25 mill players but the object is to win. Mayberry is a 285 hitter vrs. lefthanders and a better fielder. If Howard returns to old form he can carry the team for weeks. As a Phill fan Im hoping for the Howard of first 3 years.— Don w
- What a pointless article. Here's Murphy to yet again remind us how much Howard's salary is for the 287th time this season. Howard was hurt, missed more than half the year and was still not 100% when he came back. So our 1B production this year wasn't up to par....duh. Didn't take a lot of fancy math to figure that out. We also all know he has a $25 million salary and he's got more years on his deal so he's not going anywhere. Again, not rocket science.— JimG
- michael2_19030
You're an idiot who is just making excuses for Amaro making a huge mistake in signing Howard to this contract.
— scubapro - Kinda harsh. People will read what you have to say regardless of the added insults. Relax, man. Ruben made a decision. We can argue whether it was the right call all day long but we won't know the answer until the end of the 2016 season. You'll know if Fielder's deal was good after the 2020 season and Pujols after the 2021 season. — vafan
- see michael2_19030, you are the type... Criticize and use harsh language to someone because you believe yourself to be smarter than everybody. Even though had the Phillies let him walk to someone giving him the same contract, and he had a huge season, YOU would be on here than criticizing the Phillies for being cheap and letting him go, and would also state that this was your position ALL along. FRAUD!!!
— hawaiiphillyfan - Sorry, last response was for you scubapro, not to you michael2_19030. My apologies michael.
— hawaiiphillyfan - Howard's early return was like throwing jet fuel on a raging fire. Amaro let him come back too soon and he underperformed as badly if not worse than last season. Ruf should have been brought up in mid August and platooned at 1B with Lance Nix. Howard should have been shut-down at that point and not brought back until Spring Training. Ruf could be sent out to play Fall/Winter ball to some experience playing LF. I am sure Pat Gillick would have played it this way.— garcia7
- @1republican:
You live up to your posting name - wrong on the facts, willing to take enormous chances using untried items. When called on it you repeat the same mistakes, only shouting louder.
(To other posters here = I apologize for the political comment - but when a jack@$$ like that uses a politically based ID, he is asking for it.
Howard was hurt in both 20190 and 2011. He was on the DL in 2010 and limped through the rest of the season. In 2011 he was hurt late in the season but played through it. For the last three weeks of the season he missed a week and couldn't hit at all when he came back. If you had any interest in facts, you could look it up.
Then you want to give the job to Ruf, who has started a grand total of 10 ML games.
— judas_priest 
The Phillies (Amaro) have to be proactive this winter in ensuring Howard has a trainer to work out with and they have to give Tony Gwynne a call to get back together with Howard. The Barry Bonds tutorials with RH have to be round filed so the hitter who went to all fields in 2006-2008 can reappear. I realize I've repeated this mantra over and over and over but to me, it's the only thing that makes sense. Do I think this will play out like this? No. It will be the same old same old next season. Amaro and Charlie do not appear to be hands on with their players in the way of additional instruction, dietary or conditioning help. I do believe RH can make that comeback. But not with the way things stand now on this team.- So I would be interested in what Ryan's average salary per year would be. He made very little his first few years, where a guy like Pujols has been making major bucks his whole career. It's a new stat for the sabremetricians!!!— DrStrangeglove
- To scuba pro: so sorry your IQ does not lend itself to understanding such a simple thing as to why the contract he has is what it is. I feel bad for you...— michael2_19030
- To scuba pro: so sorry your IQ does not lend itself to understanding such a simple thing as to why the contract he has is what it is. I feel bad for you...— michael2_19030
- Look, Howard's deal is what it is. To me, the best we can hope for is a solid No. 5 hitter the next 4-5 years with something like: .245, 32 HR, 110 RBI and average fielding. Did we overpay for that? Sure. But he's our guy so let's build a team with that in mind. Which means we need a No. 4 hitter, Hamilton or Upton.
— eman - The Cardinals have proved they could let go of one of the premier first basemen in the game after winning it all last year and still be back in the post season this year. Just unleash Howard and move forward with new blood.— sonnybuoy01
- wow what a total waste of lottery money— pr0f3ss0r
- In conclusion...the 2nd dumbest contract in the history of baseball. Thanks ARod.— Relocator
- I completely disagree that RAJ jumped too soon on extending Ryan Howard. I think it was a fair deal at the right time. Have you seen the 10 year deals going around? I'd pay extra $ per year to keep the deal shorter. Is that too deep for most of you? Just talking deals here, I know his production hasn't met expectations this first year.— vafan
- Howard is not the problem. Who cares how much he cost? It isn't coming out of your pockets. An unproductive outfield as well as 3rd base and a crappy bullpen was this years issue— Friend to All
- Not sure why this article was writtten when everyone knows that the phils are committed to Howard for at least 4 more years. He has hit more homers and driven in more runs than ANYONE in baseball since 2006--that's a FACT, not opinion. And he game back too quickly this year after a severe injury. Yes, he showed his warts ( who wouldn't on one leg), but he still had 57 rbi's in 70 games, an incredible number for a guy who hit .220 ! Let's relax and hope he gets healthy again, something he hasn't been for a few years. Soooo many teams have given lesser men/1B's longer term deals since Howard got his. Let's relax and concentrate on getting players for other open positions........— doylestown
- Great article! Really informative. Good job!— Todd Rader
- Someone should teach Howard the fine art of small ball. You don't have to hit a homerun every time you get to the plate but a couple hundred less strikeouts a year would be a major improvement. 25 mil for a strikeout machine is ridiculous.— Fly Guy
- Howard is not this teams problem. The main problem on this team is Manuel a complete and utter loser who does not have a clue on how to manage— gates2012
- A very well done article. David Murphy is at his best when he digs into stats.
I don't question the Phillies on signing Howard. His early years were historic. The past two were forgettable.— hawk18 - Can't wait to see a 37-year old Ryan Howard in red pinstripes. Good job, Ruin!— dasher
- @dash, the very thought of that - Howard at 37 still trotting out to 1B and hitting 4th no doubt (with Charlie pushing 75 at that time still running the show) - is enough to make grown men cry. Or laugh hysterically, my bet is on the latter and I'm sure yours is, too.
By the way, I'm unveiling a new moniker for our favorite GM tonight, one that will take a clear back seat to your Ruin Tomorrow award winner, but one that might get some play...
Ruben's A Moron, Jr.
Or maybe not.— advantasux - I've been asking the same question for 5 years now..
Why are Manuel and Dubee still employed in Philadelphia?
No one has offered a reasonable answer yet..— dedhed - REALLY? Give it up Howard Bashers. Howard will rebound in a healthy manner for 2013. Will he hit .300? No. Can he hit .260? Yes. Can he knock out 35 HRs? Yes. Can he drive in 120 runs? Yes. Does he make everyone else in the line up better? Absolutley. Did the Phillies play close to .600 ball after his return despite his injury plaqued performance? Yes. Was Reggie Jackson a career .263 hitter and strike out more than 25% of the time during his Hall of Fame career? You betcha. Get over yourselves already.— drhoffman
- i have this straaange understanding of athletics: i believe a player is perhaps 90% responsible for his state of health and wellbeing. pitcher mccarthy gets whacked by a line drive to the head: surely not his fault. most everything else is, rather ought to be, in a player's control, especially in this age of zillion dollar contracts, personal trainers, modern techniques of prevention and maintenance of the physical system. there is NO reason - none - why today's pro athlete sustaining muscle strain, hamstring, ankle, calf, back injuries can claim it ain't my fault. hell it ain't. you're getting 20+ mill a year, you have a responsibility to eat the perfect diet, do a daily program of yoga/stretches, practise some sort of mind control, do a proper (legal) regimen of vitamins/minerals/omega-3/glucosamin stuff. it ain't rocket science. (then again, maybe it is, but the knowledge is there. unfortunately, mid-20th century ways often prevail here in the 21st, especially on this club.)— bubba church & granny hamner
- Players in their 30s WILL get minor injuries as they play everyday for months on end. In 90 degree weather for long periods. Players do not have the luxury of working at their own pace, either. Usually they are reacting to a hit ball, or a pitch thrown at them from anther person...not always low impact. You're a bit harsh. I get the impression you work at a desk, or retired from working at a desk.
— road515 - How many of you armchair GM's would have just ran Amaro out of town had he let Howard walk and then Howard had a big season with another team? It would have been listed as the worst trade ever in Philly history, and each of you would be on here saying how ya'll told everybody so. SHUT UP.................— hawaiiphillyfan
- And further had they signed a Pulos or someone like that, and he started off slow like he did with the Angels, EVERY ONE of you would be, "I told you they should never have paid for that big contract, it's the worst thing the Phillies ever done". Always so much know it all. Hindsight makes you smart. If Howard is tearing it up, then its, "Get this guy locked up at all cost, because I know, I'm the smartest baseball fan on earth"..... And IF the signings the Phillies had over the past off season had worked out, you would be calling RAJ a genius, and you KNEW that he was doing the right thing. Because I never heard someone on here bad talking any of the bad signings Gillick had, because they were winning.— hawaiiphillyfan
- who in their right sick mind would ve given that big turd a 125 million contract,,yes you guess it the other bigger turd— hardball
- Thanks for the great analysis, guys! What the Phillie SHOULD do is spelled out by bigben2009 above. What they WILL do is allow themselves to be pressured into sending #6 back prematurely, thus galvanizing all the anti-Howards out there when he stumbles. Ryan, please get right before coming back, brother!
— dwp66 - Like the idea of Mayberry at first against lefties! Ruf in LF and Brown in right. CF has to be fixed. Frandsen a better bat at third than Galvis, although why not platoon there if we can't get Headley.— ginzo
- I am not a Ryan Howard fan. He is over paid. He cannot field, he cannot run, he cannot throw, he cannot hit for average. Why do we pay him so much? We need to do something to limit his cost to this team. He is an albatross for us.— avogel36
- Flexibility: None. Trade Potential: None. That makes the contract irrelivant because you can't change it and he's not going anywhere. If Howard can't recover, the Phillies are cooked. But at least there's hope he can come back ... unlike with Utley.— TomO
- Today at best, Howard is Adam Dunn or Dave Kingman with a slightly better BA. He is a machine--a strikeout and RBI machine.— Barneyboy
- Some articles require no comment, as baseball is a game of statistics, endless statistics, which speak volumes.
Whether you project monster production, or meager performance are both two polar extremes, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing......yet.
Spring Training will tell the tale of recovery during the off-season, conditioning or not, practice, yes, I'm talking about practice, in plate discipline, the last problem having existed since pitchers learned Howard can't lay off a breaking ball low and away in the dirt.
If Howard can produce again, who wouldn't be happy? If he can't, the calls for Rube's head will be in full throat as he handcuffed the team with a very stupid contract.
Since no one here is named Nostradamus, or writes in quaint French quatrains, we just have to wait and see. Every prognostication before the reality of 2013 is just wasted breath.— PhillyboyinNYC - Dump Howard now!— fafink
- A great article.... I have a couple of questions... WHY do we expect Ryan Howard to be good even when he is 38!!! He is a strikeout machine, and always has been. Now he is unable to run, something that started before the achilles injury actually. When will the team come to their senses? At some point his huge salary will not just be ill advised, it will be ludicrous.
Please consider platooning him at first base at the very least....His RBI count is not balanced by a 40% strikeout rate....outs are bad in baseball, Ruben.— westie33 - The HOF is full of sluggers with high K's. K's are the nature of
the slugging beasts. If RAJ hadn't have given RH that extension
and RH had a great 2010 & 2011 it certainly would have cost the
Phils a lot more than this contract. Long term contracts are a
dredful thing but sometimes u eat the bear and sometimes the bear
eats u. Didn't agree with the extension in 2010 but if it didn't
happen then his contract due date cud have cost more. It's a win
win or lose lose situation and i guess RAJ thought it was going
to be the win win. A great deal of huge contracts are a gamble
and RAJ thought it was a worth the gamble at the time. Was RAJ
right or wrong? I certainly am not going to judge him as all
of us commenting here think we know better but in all realty
we don't. That wasn't meant to be a insult to all commentors,
it's just we just aren't smart enough to know the right answers.
Anyway here's hoping RH exercises and eats like he should in the
off season and hope he comes back with a vengeance in 2013.— associate - get the big peice a trade to American lg if any boby would take min you may havr to eat 1/2 his contrack put Ruf at first Frandsen at 3rdleave outfield alone at least untel traid deadline if they don't make it you will have a lot of money to buy help pitching is fine may need a 8th inning man that can also be fixed at trade deadline if needed And last but least get a new manager and get Rollins to play every day not justwhen fe wants to april and may he realy stunk up the place there is always a problem on a team and he may be it when lofts— abbyzuk
- The Giants have proven that you don't need "sluggers". Contact hitters who don't watch fastballs down the middle. Unfortunately, the Philly line-up is stacked with KO artists. Howard being the master of the KO. Hire the ghost of Charlie Lau or george Brett and teach them how to level their swings and go to all fields.No more J.Poppins with a 'tude. No more Wiggington who starts every at bat with an 0-2 count.Put the ball in play and stop wasting the talents of the best athlete on the team....Cliff Lee.— toubibcal
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