State of the Phillies: First base
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State of the Phillies: First base
David Murphy
This week, the Daily News and High Cheese will be taking an in-depth look at the Phillies roster moving forward, breaking down the state of each position as it relates to the future and the present. In Tuesday's newspaper, Ryan Lawrence will look at the infield. Today, we'll start things off with a look at first base.
The success of a lineup is dictated by the economics of salary and personnel distribution, and the Phillies' production at first base in 2012 was a prime example. The market of talent in baseball features a strong supply of players who can both hit for power and reach base at rates above the league average. Of the $178 million that a team can spend before it exceeds the luxury tax threshold, the Phillies allocated 14.05 percent to their starter at first base. Really, the number is slightly higher than that when you factor in the $10 million that each team is required to pay for player benefits, which counts against the threshold (in other words, teams can spend about $168 million on player salaries before going over the threshold). In 2012, the Phillies flunked those economics, as their production at third base was well below league average in most major offensive categories.
I. 2012 production, Phillies first basemen (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .234 (13)
OBP: .308 (13)
SLG: .415 (11)
OPS: .723 (13)
HR: 27 (4)
RBI: 102 (3)
RS: 75 (10)
BREAKDOWN: Ryan Howard struggled after he returned from the disabled list in early July, hitting .219/.295/.423 with 99 strikeouts in 260 at-bats in 71 games. Howard maintained his knack for hitting with runners on base (his 56 RBI in 71 games would equate to 127 RBI in 162 games) and for hitting home runs (14 HR in 71 games equates to 31 HR in 162 games). But a .219 batting average and .295 on base percentage are significant detriments: if you value RBI, you must value runs scored, and a hitter must reach base in order to score runs. Howard recorded career-worst marks in walk rate, strikeout rate and at-bats-per-home-run. The first three months of the season featured Ty Wigginton (62 games, .757 OPS) and John Mayberry Jr. (24 games, .625 OPS) getting the bulk of the action at first base. Combined, the result was production that was well below what the majority of other National League teams received from first base.
II. Future Salary Commitments (Edited to reflect lux. tax threshold increase to $189 mil in '14)
2012: Ryan Howard, 33 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2013: Ryan Howard, 34 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2014: Ryan Howard, 35 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2015: Ryan Howard, 36 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2016: Ryan Howard, 37 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold
2017: Ryan Howard, 38 years old, $23.0 million or $10 million buyout (13.23 percent or 0.00 percent of luxury tax threshold)
Flexibility: None. Howard is still owed $95 million in annual salary over the next four seasons, plus a $10 million buyout in 2017. His luxury tax cost is $25 million a season over the next four years, and he will be 33 years old during the 2013 season.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Ryan Howard, 33, $25 million average annual value (AAV) signed through 2016
- John Mayberry Jr., 29, pre-Arb (2.095 service time), club control through at least 2016
- Laynce Nix, 32, $1.25 million AAV signed thru 2013.
- Darin Ruf, 26, pre-Arb (< 1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
- Erik Kratz, 33, pre-Arb (<1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
BREAKDOWN: First base will not be a priority for the Phillies for the foreseeable future. Manuel said late in the season that he thought Kratz could handle spot duty at first base, although there is no indication that will play a major role in 2013. Ruf, like any player with one month of big league experience, is an unknown, although he is the best chance for the Phillies to have some young depth at the position over the life of Howard's contract.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: None. Even during Howard's healthy 2011 season, his .253/.346/.488 batting line and 33 home runs were nearly identical to Adam LaRoche's .271/.343/.510 and 33 home runs for the Nationals this year. LaRoche, of course, was making $8 million in AAV compared with $25 million for Howard. Just to give Howard away to another team, the Phillies would likely have to eat at least half of the money remaining on his contract.
Disagree? Prior to 2011, Paul Konerko signed a three-year, $37.5 million deal that covered his 35, 36 and 37 years old seasons. Howard is due to earn $75 million for his 35-to-37-year-old seasons, plus a $10 million buyout for his 38-year-old season. If Konerko's contract is what the free market would bear for those years of power production at first base, there is little reason to expect that a team would assume more than that amount in acquiring Howard. Factor in the fact that Konerko's number have been better than Howard's over the past few seasons, and that Konerko is not one year removed from a ruptured Achilles, and it is pretty safe to say that the market would view Howard as, at best, a $12.5 million-per-season player over the remaining four years of his contract.
The time for maneuvering at first base was the last few seasons, when Howard, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez all signed new deals. The Phillies made their choice, and now it is on Howard to prove them right or wrong.
FREE AGENT MARKET: With a slew of elite first baseman having signed contract extensions over the previous few seasons, the 2013 market is not a strong one. Assuming the Nationals exercise LaRoche's $10 million option, the only potential everyday players available are Mike Napoli, Carlos Pena and James Loney. The rest: Jason Giambi, Eric Hinske, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Casey Kotchman, Ty Wigginton, Lyle Overbay, Xavier Nady.
V. First base: In conclusion
The Phillies have no choice but to believe that Howard will get back to the production level he offered when they signed him to a five-year, $125 million contract extension during the 2010 season, when he still had two years left on his existing deal. The first baseman was not in the same physical condition that he was before his surgery, which the Phillies hope will be rectified by an offseason of his usual training regimen. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has acknowledged that the Phillies' future will be dictated largely by the performance of the players who are earning significant dollars, and Howard is the most crucial member of that club.
Headley and Upton.— Seegs- Yup and as soon as they do that, and Headley or Upton fails, YOU would be one of those on here claiming, "I told everyone that this was a bad signing by RAJ, he is the dumbest person in MLB". Am I correct??? — hawaiiphillyfan
- The best hope is Howard has a bit of a resurgence at the plate in 2013 and the team is able to swap him to a desperate AL team who wants to use him as a DH. Even then, they'd have to eat a lot of salary to make him palatable as a tradable commodity. His future in the league, if any, is not going to be as an everyday player. He's 33 and an old 33 at that.— Repubrebirth
- I'd love to see Howard traded, but you would be selling at his absolute lowest value. If Howard is owed 95 million over the next four seasons, maybe the Phillies could find a dance partner willing to take on 50% of Howard's salary. That's very wishful thinking. Imagine an extra 12 million or so yearly, of extra money to fill some voids on the roster. The problem is, Ruben Amaro is still the GM.— FreeCable4Ever
- This might be the worst contract in the history of all sports compared to the return of the investment. Congrats Rube.— ronin32
- What about a 2 strike swing. A hard hit ball to the left side works for me.— TEMPLE55
- Red Sox recently unloaded three big money 30+yr olds, two who were ineffective this season. Howard's RBI ability and an added sweetener to the pot could move his contract.— escapedcamden4monterey
- Agree with all those (surprisingly many already!) who want a platoon. Howard still kills right-handed pitching, and Ruf looks special against lefties (although I would settle for Mayberry). There's virtually no chance Howard is going to hold up for 150 games a year for the next several years anyway, so why not have the limited number of games he's actually going to play be primarily against righties?— person
- Howard is a wrecking crew when healthy. He has had a few injury issues, and may have been back in the lineup too soon this season. He did it because he is a team player, and not a crybaby whiner. When Charlie benched Rollins, Howard publicly backed Charlie. This team will only go as far as Howard takes it. With any luck somebody else will step up and help him next season.— Paul SoTX
- The success of the Phillies will to a large degree depend on which Howard shows up in 2013. Ryan's contract was based on what he did the first three years. Howard hit 153 HRs his first FULL 3 years. An average of 51 per year Howard has made batting adjustments improved his fielding and before the injury got in better shape. Still he's regressed in the years since. I would love to see him go back to the open stance and look to drive the ball from leftcenter to center. His big problem is chasing pitchers out of strike zone particularly low outside. If he does not improve his 200 avg. against lefties he should be platooned. Teams dont usually do that to 25 mill players but the object is to win. Mayberry is a 285 hitter vrs. lefthanders and a better fielder. If Howard returns to old form he can carry the team for weeks. As a Phill fan Im hoping for the Howard of first 3 years.— Don w
- What a pointless article. Here's Murphy to yet again remind us how much Howard's salary is for the 287th time this season. Howard was hurt, missed more than half the year and was still not 100% when he came back. So our 1B production this year wasn't up to par....duh. Didn't take a lot of fancy math to figure that out. We also all know he has a $25 million salary and he's got more years on his deal so he's not going anywhere. Again, not rocket science.— JimG
- michael2_19030
You're an idiot who is just making excuses for Amaro making a huge mistake in signing Howard to this contract.
— scubapro - Kinda harsh. People will read what you have to say regardless of the added insults. Relax, man. Ruben made a decision. We can argue whether it was the right call all day long but we won't know the answer until the end of the 2016 season. You'll know if Fielder's deal was good after the 2020 season and Pujols after the 2021 season. — vafan
- see michael2_19030, you are the type... Criticize and use harsh language to someone because you believe yourself to be smarter than everybody. Even though had the Phillies let him walk to someone giving him the same contract, and he had a huge season, YOU would be on here than criticizing the Phillies for being cheap and letting him go, and would also state that this was your position ALL along. FRAUD!!!
— hawaiiphillyfan - Sorry, last response was for you scubapro, not to you michael2_19030. My apologies michael.
— hawaiiphillyfan
